America 2050- We talk about future elections...but what will the stances be?

[Vepres]

Cloning could be a big issue. I believe this will be one of the few issues where the conservatives will win in the long term (full human cloning is totally illegal).

Major issues include:
- The deficit and national debt.

- Funding for the now established Mars and Moon bases (though they're very small, five or six astronauts at a time).

- Renewable energy as oil is starting to become less common.

- National parks will be a big deal as the left advocates for the protection of natural areas while the right says it hinders development.

- Overpopulation is an issue, though not too urgent in the US. People are encouraged to have no more than two children, though there are no laws specifically dealing with it.

- Debate occurs over whether the house should be larger due to the higher population.

- China the equivalent of Japan nowadays, perhaps a bit more powerful economically, high tech and modern, though pollution is still an issue.

- Outsourcing of grunt IT jobs to Africa is a big issue. Africa is equivalent to India today.

- Should college be nearly free for all citizens who want a bachelors degree? This is a big question as a college education is all but required for one to get most decent middle-class jobs.

- The globe does warm somewhat, but not enough to have any major environmental effects. Both sides claim they are right.

- Privacy is a big issue as newer technology gives government and businesses the ability to know much about your life. Both parties favor strict privacy regulations, and most businesses respect it as does the government.

- Healthcare has advanced so much that many deadly diseases nowadays are now curable. Cancer is rarely lethal, with only the rarest forms such as pancreatic cancer being threatening.



Issues that will have disappeared or already been dealt with:
- The middle-east is now fairly stable, radical Islamic extremists are basically non-existent. Iraq is a stable nation, and very economically successful, and not just because of oil. Saudi Arabia is experiencing a deep recession as oil is used less and less around the world. Iran is a full fledged democracy, but growth is slow, as is Afghanistan.

- Israel has become a state where both the Israelis and the Palestinians have political power.

- Social security is non-existent at this point save a small department that provides help to the poorest of seniors.

- Al Queda slowly fades as the less extreme generation comes of age. It eventually disappears.

- Racism, sexism, and other forms of discrimination are all but non-existent. However, we have yet to have a female President despite a few candidates coming close.

- Newspapers are long gone. Issues from city hall to the capitol are now on the internet.

- Manufacturing jobs no longer exist due to advances in robotics.


Few other predictions:

- Computers have advanced significantly, though they still cannot compete with humans in a number of areas including inductive reasoning, creativity, and self communication. A computer simply cannot emulate anything close to human intelligence due to their inherent design.

- Space tourism is growing, though still mostly a rich persons industry. Space craft remain in space for a few hours then fly back to the ground.

- Economic powers include: USA, China, Japan, EU (though not as much as the others), and the urban parts of India.

- Potential rising economic powers are: Iraq, the Philippines, and a handful of African countries.

- Russia is in bad shape economically.

[Vepres]

...and yet probably unimaginably different. Truly, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Yeah. The science fiction author Arthur C. Clark predicted that by 2001 we would have sentient computers, be able to have a manned mission to Jupiter, have a large orbiting public space station and a relatively large functioning moon base.

At the same time, he didn't foresee cell phones (2001 clearly has one of the characters using a phone booth because there was no other way), the fact computers would be far smaller than they were in the 60s, WiFi-esque technology, and he way underestimated how advanced our GUIs and computer graphics would be.

[Vepres]

Cloning could be a big issue. I believe this will be one of the few issues where the conservatives will win in the long term (full human cloning is totally illegal).

Major issues include:
- The deficit and national debt.

- Funding for the now established Mars and Moon bases (though they're very small, five or six astronauts at a time).

- Renewable energy as oil is starting to become less common.

- National parks will be a big deal as the left advocates for the protection of natural areas while the right says it hinders development.

- Overpopulation is an issue, though not too urgent in the US. People are encouraged to have no more than two children, though there are no laws specifically dealing with it.

- Debate occurs over whether the house should be larger due to the higher population.

- China the equivalent of Japan nowadays, perhaps a bit more powerful economically, high tech and modern, though pollution is still an issue.

- Outsourcing of grunt IT jobs to Africa is a big issue. Africa is equivalent to India today.

- Should college be nearly free for all citizens who want a bachelors degree? This is a big question as a college education is all but required for one to get most decent middle-class jobs.

- The globe does warm somewhat, but not enough to have any major environmental effects. Both sides claim they are right.

- Privacy is a big issue as newer technology gives government and businesses the ability to know much about your life. Both parties favor strict privacy regulations, and most businesses respect it as does the government.

- Healthcare has advanced so much that many deadly diseases nowadays are now curable. Cancer is rarely lethal, with only the rarest forms such as pancreatic cancer being threatening.



Issues that will have disappeared or already been dealt with:
- The middle-east is now fairly stable, radical Islamic extremists are basically non-existent. Iraq is a stable nation, and very economically successful, and not just because of oil. Saudi Arabia is experiencing a deep recession as oil is used less and less around the world. Iran is a full fledged democracy, but growth is slow, as is Afghanistan.

- Israel has become a state where both the Israelis and the Palestinians have political power.

- Social security is non-existent at this point save a small department that provides help to the poorest of seniors.

- Al Queda slowly fades as the less extreme generation comes of age. It eventually disappears.

- Racism, sexism, and other forms of discrimination are all but non-existent. However, we have yet to have a female President despite a few candidates coming close.

- Newspapers are long gone. Issues from city hall to the capitol are now on the internet.

- Manufacturing jobs no longer exist due to advances in robotics.


Few other predictions:

- Computers have advanced significantly, though they still cannot compete with humans in a number of areas including inductive reasoning, creativity, and self communication. A computer simply cannot emulate anything close to human intelligence due to their inherent design.

- Space tourism is growing, though still mostly a rich persons industry. Space craft remain in space for a few hours then fly back to the ground.

- Economic powers include: USA, China, Japan, EU (though not as much as the others), and the urban parts of India.

- Potential rising economic powers are: Iraq, the Philippines, and a handful of African countries.

- Russia is in bad shape economically.

Eh...I'm pretty sure that computers will have gotten to functional AI by 2025 and full AI by 2050. It takes about 100000GFlops to get a functioning adroid (basically a Fembot) and about 10000000GLOPs to get a fully functioning human mind (think the little artificial boy on AI)...though you would need like 1000000000GLOPs (or more) to emulate every single microscopic function of the human brain. Right now, my laptop (which I got from the wages of my clerk job last summer) runs at about 25GFLOPs (enough to emulate an aligator or chicken).....and the best PC probably runs around 200GFLOPs (enough to emulate a rodent) and is about $3500. You could probably get a super computer for your labortory or business for $25000 that runs about 1000GFLOPs (about as good as a cat emulator).

I want you to take these things away-
1- You just really need one or two generations of computer development to get a surface-deep mammilian emulation
2- We probably will never be able to totally emulate the human mind
3- Its not going to be epic FAIL or epic WIN with "Strong AI". Screw what Searle has to say. He mostly approaches the issue from a non-practical method, anyways.

Just remember, a computer is, at it's core, and adding machine. A human cell is far different and far more complex than a gate, not to mention that the human brain is unimaginably complex. AI will improve, yes, but how well it simulates human or mammalian intelligence is another question. I doubt you could accurately simulate a single brain cell. Then you have to multiply that by at least 50 billion. Many cells are very different and such. I just don't think computers have the memory or speed to deal with that, even if tremendous advances are made.

You also have to take into account that a program that "learns" in an efficient way has yet to be invented. I've heard some funny stories about tests with these "learning" programs. Additionally, we don't understand the human brain fully, and to simulate it you have to understand the brain.

I'm not saying this because I am afraid of sentient computers or anything, it's just the design of a computer is fundamentally different than that of the brain.

Major issues include:
- China the equivalent of Japan nowadays, perhaps a bit more powerful economically, high tech and modern, though pollution is still an issue.

Would China have become a parliamentary democracy (albeit one dominated by the equivalent of the LDP) by this point, or would it still be a Communist dictatorship? 

I personally think they'll be somewhere in between. They'll have a parliament, but the oligarchy will still have some influence.

[Vepres]

...and I agree with that. We may NEVER or at least not this century have a machine (at least a manufacturing machine) that is able to totally able to mimic an animal, or even a person. What we can do is have a machine pretty soon that can emulate the behaviors and functions of a person or animal. A good example of this was in AI. All but one machine emulated the person, but do not come even close to completely mimicking one. I bet in the AI timeframe your probably had your weird prototype robots by 2020ish and your first man and woman emulators by 2030 or 2040. The movie probably took place in the year 2100 or 2150, when computers were given enough time to do full functioning humanity...and the little Pinocchio boy was probably the first one like it though androids have been used for a century beforehand. I base this logic on a pretty simple thing- its much easier to have a program emulator than the console or home computer that you need to run the program. I am guessing it is anywhere between 1000 time and 1 billion times easier emulate something than to totally recreate it.

Oh yeah, that's fine. In certain ways I agree they can emulate humans. In others, I have my doubts.

I didn't see that movie unfortunately, but I understand what you mean.

Few problems that have to be solved, which I'm sure they can unless the basic design of hardware is altered. Here's a huge list of complex problems. This is why I highly doubt a computer could mimic human intelligence in the next few centuries, if ever. I used to think we would have sentient computers by the turn of the 22nd century, but after doing some research I realize that there are far too many complex problems to solve. It is possible, but I believe very unlikely to occur within the next few centuries.

[Vepres]

I agree somewhat with that as well. Some of these things are being done better and better by the day by even an average business or labortory mainframe, some of these issues will probably take another 200 years. Like I said, the AI timeline is probably the most accurate timeline to date. The most primitive androids claimed to be about 100 years old. It was about the year 2125, so that means the first "mechas" were around since like 2025....and the first full simulation in a machine happened that year.

I still think that strong AI is nearly impossible, at least with the current design of computers.

As for your points about androids, I don't see those coming to pass to be honest. They're not that practical, especially when you can by many very cheap specialized robots. A good example is Roomba, you'd have one that mows the lawn, perhaps some automatic kitchen appliances, etc.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The life expectancy will be high eighties, maybe low nineties in places like Japan.

All forms of cancer will probably have high surviveblility rates. All demographic groups will have low birthrates, but that's ok because people live much longer. The slowing of aging to advance a career is an interesting idea. Though the cultural may make the opposite occur.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I doubt that would be an issue. Life will probably be extendable for the durations you noted.

See, I'm not sure population will be a problem. The trend in every country is to have fewer children. I wouldn't be surprised if the birthrate in the US was 1.3 or something.

I wonder if colonization of Antarctica will occur around that time. That could help slow the effects of overpopulation and such.

Overpopulation may not be an issue. After all, they were predicting in the 20s that we'd starve to death in the 80s due to overpopulation, it didn't happen.

I personally think the world won't change as much as some think. We'll live longer, family sizes may be a bit smaller, and while there will be some cool advances in technology, I doubt many will be practical.

[Vepres]

Artifical Intelligence: I think that there will be an outright ban on this, not VI or Virtual Intelligence but AI. Think if robots could think for themselves. Scary.

There are far too many technological issues for this to become reality. Another thing to consider is the shrinking of the size of hardware has practically stopped. You get any smaller and quantum mechanics start to interfere.

We may get a HAL 9000, but nothing like in AI or i Robot.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Perhaps. I think there will be large waves of Chinese and Indians to the US at some point as well.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I think liberals will win long term on life extension while conservatives will win long term on full human cloning (though not cloning specific tissues).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yep.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't see this as an issue personally. The first obvious signs this will become a problem will result in the complete outing of the political establishment. Look what happened to Republicans and Bush after the shock of 9/11 wore off.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eh, it will remain neutral territory. Only the US, China, and Russia will have advanced space operations.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree. Again, they'll win cloning, and abortion will have ended in a stalemate in the 2020s-2030s. Late term abortions are banned, but women still have a choice.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I agree completely.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yep.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not sure about the dates nor as to whether China will beat us to the Moon, but yeah. Russia will remain a space power despite domestic issues.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Agreed. There will be far more Japan/Germany-esque countries, but none will come very close to us.

[Vepres]

And, of course, we all know what would be #1 on States' agenda

LOL

Ironically he would still end up under a strong federal government. I could so picture him being one of the villains though.