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  Talk Elections
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  America 2050- We talk about future elections...but what will the stances be?
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Author Topic: America 2050- We talk about future elections...but what will the stances be?  (Read 12096 times)
Vepres
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« Reply #25 on: August 02, 2009, 11:26:31 pm »

...and yet probably unimaginably different. Truly, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Yeah. The science fiction author Arthur C. Clark predicted that by 2001 we would have sentient computers, be able to have a manned mission to Jupiter, have a large orbiting public space station and a relatively large functioning moon base.

At the same time, he didn't foresee cell phones (2001 clearly has one of the characters using a phone booth because there was no other way), the fact computers would be far smaller than they were in the 60s, WiFi-esque technology, and he way underestimated how advanced our GUIs and computer graphics would be.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #26 on: August 03, 2009, 12:04:59 am »

Cloning could be a big issue. I believe this will be one of the few issues where the conservatives will win in the long term (full human cloning is totally illegal).

Major issues include:
- The deficit and national debt.

- Funding for the now established Mars and Moon bases (though they're very small, five or six astronauts at a time).

- Renewable energy as oil is starting to become less common.

- National parks will be a big deal as the left advocates for the protection of natural areas while the right says it hinders development.

- Overpopulation is an issue, though not too urgent in the US. People are encouraged to have no more than two children, though there are no laws specifically dealing with it.

- Debate occurs over whether the house should be larger due to the higher population.

- China the equivalent of Japan nowadays, perhaps a bit more powerful economically, high tech and modern, though pollution is still an issue.

- Outsourcing of grunt IT jobs to Africa is a big issue. Africa is equivalent to India today.

- Should college be nearly free for all citizens who want a bachelors degree? This is a big question as a college education is all but required for one to get most decent middle-class jobs.

- The globe does warm somewhat, but not enough to have any major environmental effects. Both sides claim they are right.

- Privacy is a big issue as newer technology gives government and businesses the ability to know much about your life. Both parties favor strict privacy regulations, and most businesses respect it as does the government.

- Healthcare has advanced so much that many deadly diseases nowadays are now curable. Cancer is rarely lethal, with only the rarest forms such as pancreatic cancer being threatening.



Issues that will have disappeared or already been dealt with:

- The middle-east is now fairly stable, radical Islamic extremists are basically non-existent. Iraq is a stable nation, and very economically successful, and not just because of oil. Saudi Arabia is experiencing a deep recession as oil is used less and less around the world. Iran is a full fledged democracy, but growth is slow, as is Afghanistan.

- Israel has become a state where both the Israelis and the Palestinians have political power.

- Social security is non-existent at this point save a small department that provides help to the poorest of seniors.

- Al Queda slowly fades as the less extreme generation comes of age. It eventually disappears.

- Racism, sexism, and other forms of discrimination are all but non-existent. However, we have yet to have a female President despite a few candidates coming close.

- Newspapers are long gone. Issues from city hall to the capitol are now on the internet.

- Manufacturing jobs no longer exist due to advances in robotics.


Few other predictions:

- Computers have advanced significantly, though they still cannot compete with humans in a number of areas including inductive reasoning, creativity, and self communication. A computer simply cannot emulate anything close to human intelligence due to their inherent design.

- Space tourism is growing, though still mostly a rich persons industry. Space craft remain in space for a few hours then fly back to the ground.

- Economic powers include: USA, China, Japan, EU (though not as much as the others), and the urban parts of India.

- Potential rising economic powers are: Iraq, the Philippines, and a handful of African countries.

- Russia is in bad shape economically.

Eh...I'm pretty sure that computers will have gotten to functional AI by 2025 and full AI by 2050. It takes about 100000GFlops to get a functioning adroid (basically a Fembot) and about 10000000GLOPs to get a fully functioning human mind (think the little artificial boy on AI)...though you would need like 1000000000GLOPs (or more) to emulate every single microscopic function of the human brain. Right now, my laptop (which I got from the wages of my clerk job last summer) runs at about 25GFLOPs (enough to emulate an aligator or chicken).....and the best PC probably runs around 200GFLOPs (enough to emulate a rodent) and is about $3500. You could probably get a super computer for your labortory or business for $25000 that runs about 1000GFLOPs (about as good as a cat emulator).

I want you to take these things away-
1- You just really need one or two generations of computer development to get a surface-deep mammilian emulation
2- We probably will never be able to totally emulate the human mind
3- Its not going to be epic FAIL or epic WIN with "Strong AI". Screw what Searle has to say. He mostly approaches the issue from a non-practical method, anyways.

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« Reply #27 on: August 03, 2009, 12:27:31 am »

Map of America in 2050:

In 2046 an invasion of gay cyborg aliens invaded Earth. Everything was destroyed in explosions of nuclear fire except for the colored areas. The ocean had food coloring dumped in it and is now a lovely shade of rainbow. The gay cyborg aliens roam the ocean in their gigantic brown ocean liners crushing dissent from the mutated beings of the world. The eastern Green mass is Socialist Republic of Coal. The nation powers its industries based off of the resource in its title. The SEOC is building a secretive army to get back against the Cyborgs. The yellow mass is the Heartland. The Heartland is a nation based off of love of baseball, corn, wheat and God. Nothing special ever happens there. The pink blob is the Zombie Free City of St. Louis. The red blob is the Syndicated Mormon Conglomerate of Desret ruled by the resurrected body of Mitt Romney. The western green blob is Starbucks & Microsoft Inc., no one in the nation does anything productive and just plays virtual games all day. The light blue mass is Norht Cali. The teal mass is the Las Vegas Prostitution Zone where all of the Mormons go for their needs. The pink zone is The Flaming Homo Republic. San Fransisco was stated for an atomic attack by the aliens but decided not to after realizing the men there were much more attractive than their own. The FHR must now supply them with a shipment of sex slaves every year.

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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« Reply #28 on: August 03, 2009, 09:24:13 am »

Major issues include:
- China the equivalent of Japan nowadays, perhaps a bit more powerful economically, high tech and modern, though pollution is still an issue.

Would China have become a parliamentary democracy (albeit one dominated by the equivalent of the LDP) by this point, or would it still be a Communist dictatorship? 
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Vepres
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« Reply #29 on: August 03, 2009, 06:43:07 pm »

Cloning could be a big issue. I believe this will be one of the few issues where the conservatives will win in the long term (full human cloning is totally illegal).

Major issues include:
- The deficit and national debt.

- Funding for the now established Mars and Moon bases (though they're very small, five or six astronauts at a time).

- Renewable energy as oil is starting to become less common.

- National parks will be a big deal as the left advocates for the protection of natural areas while the right says it hinders development.

- Overpopulation is an issue, though not too urgent in the US. People are encouraged to have no more than two children, though there are no laws specifically dealing with it.

- Debate occurs over whether the house should be larger due to the higher population.

- China the equivalent of Japan nowadays, perhaps a bit more powerful economically, high tech and modern, though pollution is still an issue.

- Outsourcing of grunt IT jobs to Africa is a big issue. Africa is equivalent to India today.

- Should college be nearly free for all citizens who want a bachelors degree? This is a big question as a college education is all but required for one to get most decent middle-class jobs.

- The globe does warm somewhat, but not enough to have any major environmental effects. Both sides claim they are right.

- Privacy is a big issue as newer technology gives government and businesses the ability to know much about your life. Both parties favor strict privacy regulations, and most businesses respect it as does the government.

- Healthcare has advanced so much that many deadly diseases nowadays are now curable. Cancer is rarely lethal, with only the rarest forms such as pancreatic cancer being threatening.



Issues that will have disappeared or already been dealt with:

- The middle-east is now fairly stable, radical Islamic extremists are basically non-existent. Iraq is a stable nation, and very economically successful, and not just because of oil. Saudi Arabia is experiencing a deep recession as oil is used less and less around the world. Iran is a full fledged democracy, but growth is slow, as is Afghanistan.

- Israel has become a state where both the Israelis and the Palestinians have political power.

- Social security is non-existent at this point save a small department that provides help to the poorest of seniors.

- Al Queda slowly fades as the less extreme generation comes of age. It eventually disappears.

- Racism, sexism, and other forms of discrimination are all but non-existent. However, we have yet to have a female President despite a few candidates coming close.

- Newspapers are long gone. Issues from city hall to the capitol are now on the internet.

- Manufacturing jobs no longer exist due to advances in robotics.


Few other predictions:

- Computers have advanced significantly, though they still cannot compete with humans in a number of areas including inductive reasoning, creativity, and self communication. A computer simply cannot emulate anything close to human intelligence due to their inherent design.

- Space tourism is growing, though still mostly a rich persons industry. Space craft remain in space for a few hours then fly back to the ground.

- Economic powers include: USA, China, Japan, EU (though not as much as the others), and the urban parts of India.

- Potential rising economic powers are: Iraq, the Philippines, and a handful of African countries.

- Russia is in bad shape economically.

Eh...I'm pretty sure that computers will have gotten to functional AI by 2025 and full AI by 2050. It takes about 100000GFlops to get a functioning adroid (basically a Fembot) and about 10000000GLOPs to get a fully functioning human mind (think the little artificial boy on AI)...though you would need like 1000000000GLOPs (or more) to emulate every single microscopic function of the human brain. Right now, my laptop (which I got from the wages of my clerk job last summer) runs at about 25GFLOPs (enough to emulate an aligator or chicken).....and the best PC probably runs around 200GFLOPs (enough to emulate a rodent) and is about $3500. You could probably get a super computer for your labortory or business for $25000 that runs about 1000GFLOPs (about as good as a cat emulator).

I want you to take these things away-
1- You just really need one or two generations of computer development to get a surface-deep mammilian emulation
2- We probably will never be able to totally emulate the human mind
3- Its not going to be epic FAIL or epic WIN with "Strong AI". Screw what Searle has to say. He mostly approaches the issue from a non-practical method, anyways.

Just remember, a computer is, at it's core, and adding machine. A human cell is far different and far more complex than a gate, not to mention that the human brain is unimaginably complex. AI will improve, yes, but how well it simulates human or mammalian intelligence is another question. I doubt you could accurately simulate a single brain cell. Then you have to multiply that by at least 50 billion. Many cells are very different and such. I just don't think computers have the memory or speed to deal with that, even if tremendous advances are made.

You also have to take into account that a program that "learns" in an efficient way has yet to be invented. I've heard some funny stories about tests with these "learning" programs. Additionally, we don't understand the human brain fully, and to simulate it you have to understand the brain.

I'm not saying this because I am afraid of sentient computers or anything, it's just the design of a computer is fundamentally different than that of the brain.


Major issues include:
- China the equivalent of Japan nowadays, perhaps a bit more powerful economically, high tech and modern, though pollution is still an issue.

Would China have become a parliamentary democracy (albeit one dominated by the equivalent of the LDP) by this point, or would it still be a Communist dictatorship? 

I personally think they'll be somewhere in between. They'll have a parliament, but the oligarchy will still have some influence.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #30 on: August 03, 2009, 07:24:15 pm »

...and I agree with that. We may NEVER or at least not this century have a machine (at least a manufacturing machine) that is able to totally able to mimic an animal, or even a person. What we can do is have a machine pretty soon that can emulate the behaviors and functions of a person or animal. A good example of this was in AI. All but one machine emulated the person, but do not come even close to completely mimicking one. I bet in the AI timeframe your probably had your weird prototype robots by 2020ish and your first man and woman emulators by 2030 or 2040. The movie probably took place in the year 2100 or 2150, when computers were given enough time to do full functioning humanity...and the little Pinocchio boy was probably the first one like it though androids have been used for a century beforehand. I base this logic on a pretty simple thing- its much easier to have a program emulator than the console or home computer that you need to run the program. I am guessing it is anywhere between 1000 time and 1 billion times easier emulate something than to totally recreate it.
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Vepres
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« Reply #31 on: August 03, 2009, 08:47:54 pm »

...and I agree with that. We may NEVER or at least not this century have a machine (at least a manufacturing machine) that is able to totally able to mimic an animal, or even a person. What we can do is have a machine pretty soon that can emulate the behaviors and functions of a person or animal. A good example of this was in AI. All but one machine emulated the person, but do not come even close to completely mimicking one. I bet in the AI timeframe your probably had your weird prototype robots by 2020ish and your first man and woman emulators by 2030 or 2040. The movie probably took place in the year 2100 or 2150, when computers were given enough time to do full functioning humanity...and the little Pinocchio boy was probably the first one like it though androids have been used for a century beforehand. I base this logic on a pretty simple thing- its much easier to have a program emulator than the console or home computer that you need to run the program. I am guessing it is anywhere between 1000 time and 1 billion times easier emulate something than to totally recreate it.

Oh yeah, that's fine. In certain ways I agree they can emulate humans. In others, I have my doubts.

I didn't see that movie unfortunately, but I understand what you mean.

Few problems that have to be solved, which I'm sure they can unless the basic design of hardware is altered. Here's a huge list of complex problems. This is why I highly doubt a computer could mimic human intelligence in the next few centuries, if ever. I used to think we would have sentient computers by the turn of the 22nd century, but after doing some research I realize that there are far too many complex problems to solve. It is possible, but I believe very unlikely to occur within the next few centuries.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #32 on: August 04, 2009, 12:05:46 am »

I agree somewhat with that as well. Some of these things are being done better and better by the day by even an average business or labortory mainframe, some of these issues will probably take another 200 years. Like I said, the AI timeline is probably the most accurate timeline to date. The most primitive androids claimed to be about 100 years old. It was about the year 2125, so that means the first "mechas" were around since like 2025....and the first full simulation in a machine happened that year.


What about health-care and the life extension issue? (I think as preventable death falls to its near zero, the LE would be around 85) At this point, I think that it is possible and beneficial to have a way to slow down the aging process by about 25 years, so as to allow people to have most of the hard work in forming a career behind them when they have children. This wouldn't mean they could retire to have kids, but it could mean that they could have children when their workhours are the lowest and their incomes are the highest....and that they could work another 20 years beyond what they do now...

So, you would still start your career around the same time, but be able to wait to marry and have kids until you are 40. By then, you could afford to put your kids into better schools and provide better programs and nutrition for them as well as affording to spend more time with them. After that, they could work another 40 years and build up a much larger pension and retire at 80 and live to be 100. (maybe by 2050 or 2070 the average LE would be in the mid-90s- which would actually be a pretty conservative jump).

This seems to be the most optimal way of extended life with our current cultural norms. This will probably double population growth, but I am hopeful that this will encourage more economic incentives for the government and entrapanuers to work harder until we achieve a breakthrough on environmental sustainability and space colonization...just as we have with atom bombs, robotics and the promise of extended life.

There also seems to be a problem of health-rationing that could come of this, but I don't think it would be an issue unless we can alter the fundamentals of cell death. At this time, it would appear reasonable that stem cell research can make sure the body still produces enough to tissue to be reproductive and able-bodied for about half-again as much time as it otherwise would (30 years of good health vs. 50 or 60 years of good health...with about the same amount of fair health to follow  (25 years now and 25 years then).
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« Reply #33 on: August 04, 2009, 11:23:15 am »

40 years from now?

If you follow the theories of Howe and Strauss, times roughly 80 years apart (maybe 70 at times, maybe 90), have similar tempers. 2050 will probably be more like 1970 than like 2009. Expect young adults to challenge the political consensus, the religious norms, and the culture of people born from about 1980 to 2000. Today's clean-cut, conformist, pleasant kids will have become clean-cut, conformist adults with a largely-insipid culture with the equivalents of aging crooners like Bing Crosby and Andy Williams. The 2050-era equivalent of "Easy Listening" Music will be everywhere, and kids will hate it. Expect such musical performances as revivals of Hair, Tommy, and Jesus Christ Superstar to do astonishingly well.

Even if there is no equivalent of the Vietnam War, there will be cultural ferment. Expect to see young adults mock the corporate style of their fathers who got America through the dangerous era of 2005-2020 with long hair, worn jeans, tie-dyed linens, and the like. Beatniks will have given way to hippies.
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« Reply #34 on: August 04, 2009, 12:16:56 pm »
« Edited: August 04, 2009, 12:39:33 pm by Supersoulty »

To take a stab at what the major issues will be at this time, in no particular order...

1) Human Cloning

2) The rights of people in an ever more technological society

3) Moral issues about how much science should do

4) What is a person (meaning that I think abortion will actually still be an issue, but also in terms of cloned humans, and perhaps even robots and animals by this point)

5) Fear over an emerging Japan and Turkey

6) Anti-immigration laws... after we have spent 2020-2040 in a rush to import labor, like the rest of the current first world

7) America's aging infrastructure (this is an issue about every 40 years)

8 ) Potential admittance of at least some of Canada into the Union (this will likely take the shape of eastern Canada wanting to join the (now far weaker than today) European Union, while sections of Western Canada wish to go with the United States, Ontario and British Columbia will be the two provinces most happy with the status quo; assuming the idea of a Canadian Nation has any validity, the early 21st century will take it to the breaking point

9) Globally, the continued carnage of the Russian War of Dissolution will be on everyone's tv's, but while people in the West will pretend to care, they really won't; the West won't take the side of any of the some 10 states formed by the total break up of Russia in the 2030's, preferring to be a spectator and denounce the violence from afar, happy that its old nemesis has finally been done in.

10) The Weaponization of Space... more of a "should we have" by this point.

11) Still coping with some of the effects of climate change, though the total disaster that was predicted never took place.

12) International aid... the planet has the capacity to feed a population that is now 10 billion, but we can't get the food there... still.

Wildcards:

Africa - Will it finally find its footing in the modern world?

Atlantic Europe - Will it finally come to terms with its true irrelevance in the modern era, or will it still arrogantly try to act as the world's guiding light?

China - Is the Chinese government going weaken its grasp on the coastal provinces in order to keep the economy humming, or will it attempt a crackdown and go into isolation as it has in the past?  Eitherway, the pressures created by the burgeoning wealth on the coasts and the continued lack of development in the interior, plus growing ethnic concerns, which by this point will be shrouded in economics, will cause the government to weaken.  This will likely take place by 2030, but will still be an issue in 2050.

India - Has it continued its benevolent growth as a friend of the United States?  There are three "what ifs" there.
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« Reply #35 on: August 04, 2009, 12:23:47 pm »

40 years from now?

If you follow the theories of Howe and Strauss, times roughly 80 years apart (maybe 70 at times, maybe 90), have similar tempers. 2050 will probably be more like 1970 than like 2009. Expect young adults to challenge the political consensus, the religious norms, and the culture of people born from about 1980 to 2000. Today's clean-cut, conformist, pleasant kids will have become clean-cut, conformist adults with a largely-insipid culture with the equivalents of aging crooners like Bing Crosby and Andy Williams. The 2050-era equivalent of "Easy Listening" Music will be everywhere, and kids will hate it. Expect such musical performances as revivals of Hair, Tommy, and Jesus Christ Superstar to do astonishingly well.

Even if there is no equivalent of the Vietnam War, there will be cultural ferment. Expect to see young adults mock the corporate style of their fathers who got America through the dangerous era of 2005-2020 with long hair, worn jeans, tie-dyed linens, and the like. Beatniks will have given way to hippies.

 So, how will the teenagers 40 years from now rebel against the salad-eating, electric car driving, ice skating left-wing democrat homosexual corprate masters of today? Tongue
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #36 on: August 04, 2009, 12:41:49 pm »

To take a stab at what the major issues will be at this time, in no particular order...

1) Human Cloning
Probably
2) The rights of people in an ever more technological society
You mean the ACLU  complaining in 2050 that people's health insurance companies won't let them eat pizza?
3) Moral issues about how much science should do How exactly would any of this work? If trying to stop abortion or stem cell research hasn't been dicey when tried- you ain't seem anything yet!

4) What is a person (meaning that I think abortion will actually still be an issue, but also in terms of cloned humans, and perhaps even robots and animals by this point)
Probably all of the above
5) Fear over an emerging Japan and Turkey - can a socially backwards Turkey or Greying Japan be really that powerful in 40 years? Possibly. I can see Turkey becoming a center-left military junta that will be able to make Turkey into the "Disneyland with the Death Penality"...but also has millions of soldiers. Japan is already jumping on the AI wagon and will probably jump on the human cloning wagon as soon as someone finds a way to reliably do it. If people aren't going to have, let alone raise their kids, the Japanese government will.

6) Anti-immigration laws... after we have spent 2020-2040 in a rush to import labor, like the rest of the current first world I am guessing they will probably be from Africa and Russia, instead of a fully-modern and prosperous Latin America

7) America's aging infrastructure (this is an issue about every 40 years) We are always whining about that.

8 ) Potential admittance of at least some of Canada into the Union (this will likely take the shape of eastern Canada wanting to join the (now far weaker than today) European Union, while sections of Western Canada wish to go with the United States, Ontario and British Columbia will be the two provinces most happy with the status quo; assuming the idea of a Canadian Nation has any validity, the early 21st century will take it to the breaking point Perhaps the more developed parts of Mexico as well

9) Globally, the continued carnage of the Russian War of Dissolution will be on everyone's tv's, but while people in the West will pretend to care, they really won't; the West won't take the side of any of the some 10 states formed by the total break up of Russia in the 2030's, preferring to be a spectator and denounce the violence from afar, happy that its old nemesis has finally been done in. Will Eurasia be the new Africa?

10) The Weaponization of Space... more of a "should we have" by this point.

11) Still coping with some of the effects of climate change, though the total disaster that was predicted never took place.  Hmmm....I give the predicted collapse a 30% chance of happening and a 40% chance of it causing substantial long-term harm to the economy...and a 20% chance of it being a moderately important issue and only a 10% chance of everything being honky dorey.

12) International aid... the planet has the capacity to feed a population that is now 10 billion, but we can't get the food there... still. This time, it will be where they cannot grow food but for global warming.

Wildcards:

Africa - Will it finally find its footing in the modern world?

Atlantic Europe - Will it finally come to terms with its true irrelevance in the modern era, or will it still try to act as the world's guiding light?

China - Is the Chinese government going weaken its grasp on the coastal provinces in order to keep the economy humming, or will it attempt a crackdown and go into isolation as it has in the past?  Eitherway, the pressures created by the burgeoning wealth on the coasts and the continued lack of development in the interior, plus growing ethnic concerns, which by this point will be shrouded in economics, will cause the government to weaken.  This will likely take place by 2030, but will still be an issue in 2050. The most likely thing is that a progressive China emerges in China proper after shedding its Tibetans, Uyghurs and other more conservative minorities

India - Has it continued its benevolent growth as a friend of the United States?  There are three "what ifs" there. Oh. India is going to continue to grow....and it has a good chance of still being a relatively progressive place. However, will we have a cold war with them?

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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #37 on: August 04, 2009, 01:45:57 pm »

Off topic: Has anyone ever played the game Mass Effect, it's great and the backstory is intresting.


Anyway,  I'd like to make some predictions as well on the issues and the future.

The Issues- 2050.

Artifical Intelligence: I think that there will be an outright ban on this, not VI or Virtual Intelligence but AI. Think if robots could think for themselves. Scary.

Immigration: Once again, the United States will implement a system that will halt the great waves of immigration that are occuring today. I think this will happen sometime in the late 2010s,

Morality: The Science vs. God arguement, should life extension be allowed? Or is that messing with Mother Nature?  Is human cloning a good idea? Personally if you could call me a socially moderate republican today, I'll be more socially conservative then Rush Limbaugh in the future if these are the issues.

National Parks: As mentioned before, in an ever-advancing knowledge society, people will want to protect our heritage.

Civil Liberties: Self-explanatory

Space Warfare: Self-explanatory

My Predictions

I think that the republican party will still be the party of conservatism, just in different way. More in the mold of Tom Dewey, Nixon, and Rockefeller.

China will turn into what Japan is today, after chatastrophic failures in the 2020s and 2030s.

Japan will join the UN Security Council.

The Chinese will be the first to return to the moon, in 2018. The US will be back there in 2019. The Japanese and Europeans will arrive soon on there also. Due to economic problems, China will pull the plug on most of there operations. The US will be the first to land on Mars in 2034. Colonies will be set up on both, though Mars rather later.

Rising India will be talked about like China and Japan are today. Except unlike China, It will be a strategic ally of the US

The USA will still be top dog, although in a more multipolar world.
To take a stab at what the major issues will be at this time, in no particular order...

1) Human Cloning

2) The rights of people in an ever more technological society

3) Moral issues about how much science should do

4) What is a person (meaning that I think abortion will actually still be an issue, but also in terms of cloned humans, and perhaps even robots and animals by this point)

5) Fear over an emerging Japan and Turkey

6) Anti-immigration laws... after we have spent 2020-2040 in a rush to import labor, like the rest of the current first world

7) America's aging infrastructure (this is an issue about every 40 years)

8 ) Potential admittance of at least some of Canada into the Union (this will likely take the shape of eastern Canada wanting to join the (now far weaker than today) European Union, while sections of Western Canada wish to go with the United States, Ontario and British Columbia will be the two provinces most happy with the status quo; assuming the idea of a Canadian Nation has any validity, the early 21st century will take it to the breaking point

9) Globally, the continued carnage of the Russian War of Dissolution will be on everyone's tv's, but while people in the West will pretend to care, they really won't; the West won't take the side of any of the some 10 states formed by the total break up of Russia in the 2030's, preferring to be a spectator and denounce the violence from afar, happy that its old nemesis has finally been done in.

10) The Weaponization of Space... more of a "should we have" by this point.

11) Still coping with some of the effects of climate change, though the total disaster that was predicted never took place.

12) International aid... the planet has the capacity to feed a population that is now 10 billion, but we can't get the food there... still.

Wildcards:

Africa - Will it finally find its footing in the modern world?

Atlantic Europe - Will it finally come to terms with its true irrelevance in the modern era, or will it still arrogantly try to act as the world's guiding light?

China - Is the Chinese government going weaken its grasp on the coastal provinces in order to keep the economy humming, or will it attempt a crackdown and go into isolation as it has in the past?  Eitherway, the pressures created by the burgeoning wealth on the coasts and the continued lack of development in the interior, plus growing ethnic concerns, which by this point will be shrouded in economics, will cause the government to weaken.  This will likely take place by 2030, but will still be an issue in 2050.

India - Has it continued its benevolent growth as a friend of the United States?  There are three "what ifs" there.


Hey Soulty, have you read The Next 100 Years[/i because some of your predictions are familiar to the ideas in that book.
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Vepres
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« Reply #38 on: August 04, 2009, 02:00:52 pm »

I agree somewhat with that as well. Some of these things are being done better and better by the day by even an average business or labortory mainframe, some of these issues will probably take another 200 years. Like I said, the AI timeline is probably the most accurate timeline to date. The most primitive androids claimed to be about 100 years old. It was about the year 2125, so that means the first "mechas" were around since like 2025....and the first full simulation in a machine happened that year.

I still think that strong AI is nearly impossible, at least with the current design of computers.

As for your points about androids, I don't see those coming to pass to be honest. They're not that practical, especially when you can by many very cheap specialized robots. A good example is Roomba, you'd have one that mows the lawn, perhaps some automatic kitchen appliances, etc.


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The life expectancy will be high eighties, maybe low nineties in places like Japan.

All forms of cancer will probably have high surviveblility rates. All demographic groups will have low birthrates, but that's ok because people live much longer. The slowing of aging to advance a career is an interesting idea. Though the cultural may make the opposite occur.

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I doubt that would be an issue. Life will probably be extendable for the durations you noted.

See, I'm not sure population will be a problem. The trend in every country is to have fewer children. I wouldn't be surprised if the birthrate in the US was 1.3 or something.

I wonder if colonization of Antarctica will occur around that time. That could help slow the effects of overpopulation and such.

Overpopulation may not be an issue. After all, they were predicting in the 20s that we'd starve to death in the 80s due to overpopulation, it didn't happen.

I personally think the world won't change as much as some think. We'll live longer, family sizes may be a bit smaller, and while there will be some cool advances in technology, I doubt many will be practical.
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Vepres
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« Reply #39 on: August 04, 2009, 02:10:53 pm »

Artifical Intelligence: I think that there will be an outright ban on this, not VI or Virtual Intelligence but AI. Think if robots could think for themselves. Scary.

There are far too many technological issues for this to become reality. Another thing to consider is the shrinking of the size of hardware has practically stopped. You get any smaller and quantum mechanics start to interfere.

We may get a HAL 9000, but nothing like in AI or i Robot.

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Perhaps. I think there will be large waves of Chinese and Indians to the US at some point as well.

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I think liberals will win long term on life extension while conservatives will win long term on full human cloning (though not cloning specific tissues).

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Yep.

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I don't see this as an issue personally. The first obvious signs this will become a problem will result in the complete outing of the political establishment. Look what happened to Republicans and Bush after the shock of 9/11 wore off.

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Eh, it will remain neutral territory. Only the US, China, and Russia will have advanced space operations.

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I agree. Again, they'll win cloning, and abortion will have ended in a stalemate in the 2020s-2030s. Late term abortions are banned, but women still have a choice.

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I agree completely.

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Yep.

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Not sure about the dates nor as to whether China will beat us to the Moon, but yeah. Russia will remain a space power despite domestic issues.

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Yeah.

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Agreed. There will be far more Japan/Germany-esque countries, but none will come very close to us.
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« Reply #40 on: August 04, 2009, 02:26:17 pm »

Off topic: Has anyone ever played the game Mass Effect, it's great and the backstory is intresting.


Anyway,  I'd like to make some predictions as well on the issues and the future.

The Issues- 2050.

Artifical Intelligence: I think that there will be an outright ban on this, not VI or Virtual Intelligence but AI. Think if robots could think for themselves. Scary.

Immigration: Once again, the United States will implement a system that will halt the great waves of immigration that are occuring today. I think this will happen sometime in the late 2010s,

Morality: The Science vs. God arguement, should life extension be allowed? Or is that messing with Mother Nature?  Is human cloning a good idea? Personally if you could call me a socially moderate republican today, I'll be more socially conservative then Rush Limbaugh in the future if these are the issues.

National Parks: As mentioned before, in an ever-advancing knowledge society, people will want to protect our heritage.

Civil Liberties: Self-explanatory

Space Warfare: Self-explanatory

My Predictions

I think that the republican party will still be the party of conservatism, just in different way. More in the mold of Tom Dewey, Nixon, and Rockefeller.

China will turn into what Japan is today, after chatastrophic failures in the 2020s and 2030s.

Japan will join the UN Security Council.

The Chinese will be the first to return to the moon, in 2018. The US will be back there in 2019. The Japanese and Europeans will arrive soon on there also. Due to economic problems, China will pull the plug on most of there operations. The US will be the first to land on Mars in 2034. Colonies will be set up on both, though Mars rather later.

Rising India will be talked about like China and Japan are today. Except unlike China, It will be a strategic ally of the US

The USA will still be top dog, although in a more multipolar world.
To take a stab at what the major issues will be at this time, in no particular order...

1) Human Cloning

2) The rights of people in an ever more technological society

3) Moral issues about how much science should do

4) What is a person (meaning that I think abortion will actually still be an issue, but also in terms of cloned humans, and perhaps even robots and animals by this point)

5) Fear over an emerging Japan and Turkey

6) Anti-immigration laws... after we have spent 2020-2040 in a rush to import labor, like the rest of the current first world

7) America's aging infrastructure (this is an issue about every 40 years)

8 ) Potential admittance of at least some of Canada into the Union (this will likely take the shape of eastern Canada wanting to join the (now far weaker than today) European Union, while sections of Western Canada wish to go with the United States, Ontario and British Columbia will be the two provinces most happy with the status quo; assuming the idea of a Canadian Nation has any validity, the early 21st century will take it to the breaking point

9) Globally, the continued carnage of the Russian War of Dissolution will be on everyone's tv's, but while people in the West will pretend to care, they really won't; the West won't take the side of any of the some 10 states formed by the total break up of Russia in the 2030's, preferring to be a spectator and denounce the violence from afar, happy that its old nemesis has finally been done in.

10) The Weaponization of Space... more of a "should we have" by this point.

11) Still coping with some of the effects of climate change, though the total disaster that was predicted never took place.

12) International aid... the planet has the capacity to feed a population that is now 10 billion, but we can't get the food there... still.

Wildcards:

Africa - Will it finally find its footing in the modern world?

Atlantic Europe - Will it finally come to terms with its true irrelevance in the modern era, or will it still arrogantly try to act as the world's guiding light?

China - Is the Chinese government going weaken its grasp on the coastal provinces in order to keep the economy humming, or will it attempt a crackdown and go into isolation as it has in the past?  Eitherway, the pressures created by the burgeoning wealth on the coasts and the continued lack of development in the interior, plus growing ethnic concerns, which by this point will be shrouded in economics, will cause the government to weaken.  This will likely take place by 2030, but will still be an issue in 2050.

India - Has it continued its benevolent growth as a friend of the United States?  There are three "what ifs" there.


Hey Soulty, have you read The Next 100 Years[/i because some of your predictions are familiar to the ideas in that book.

I borrowed some of his ideas, yes. Wink  Really good book.  He makes alot of sense.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #41 on: August 04, 2009, 02:37:16 pm »

Off topic: Has anyone ever played the game Mass Effect, it's great and the backstory is intresting.


Anyway,  I'd like to make some predictions as well on the issues and the future.

The Issues- 2050.

Artifical Intelligence: I think that there will be an outright ban on this, not VI or Virtual Intelligence but AI. Think if robots could think for themselves. Scary.

Immigration: Once again, the United States will implement a system that will halt the great waves of immigration that are occuring today. I think this will happen sometime in the late 2010s,

Morality: The Science vs. God arguement, should life extension be allowed? Or is that messing with Mother Nature?  Is human cloning a good idea? Personally if you could call me a socially moderate republican today, I'll be more socially conservative then Rush Limbaugh in the future if these are the issues.

National Parks: As mentioned before, in an ever-advancing knowledge society, people will want to protect our heritage.

Civil Liberties: Self-explanatory

Space Warfare: Self-explanatory

My Predictions

I think that the republican party will still be the party of conservatism, just in different way. More in the mold of Tom Dewey, Nixon, and Rockefeller.

China will turn into what Japan is today, after chatastrophic failures in the 2020s and 2030s.

Japan will join the UN Security Council.

The Chinese will be the first to return to the moon, in 2018. The US will be back there in 2019. The Japanese and Europeans will arrive soon on there also. Due to economic problems, China will pull the plug on most of there operations. The US will be the first to land on Mars in 2034. Colonies will be set up on both, though Mars rather later.

Rising India will be talked about like China and Japan are today. Except unlike China, It will be a strategic ally of the US

The USA will still be top dog, although in a more multipolar world.
To take a stab at what the major issues will be at this time, in no particular order...

1) Human Cloning

2) The rights of people in an ever more technological society

3) Moral issues about how much science should do

4) What is a person (meaning that I think abortion will actually still be an issue, but also in terms of cloned humans, and perhaps even robots and animals by this point)

5) Fear over an emerging Japan and Turkey

6) Anti-immigration laws... after we have spent 2020-2040 in a rush to import labor, like the rest of the current first world

7) America's aging infrastructure (this is an issue about every 40 years)

8 ) Potential admittance of at least some of Canada into the Union (this will likely take the shape of eastern Canada wanting to join the (now far weaker than today) European Union, while sections of Western Canada wish to go with the United States, Ontario and British Columbia will be the two provinces most happy with the status quo; assuming the idea of a Canadian Nation has any validity, the early 21st century will take it to the breaking point

9) Globally, the continued carnage of the Russian War of Dissolution will be on everyone's tv's, but while people in the West will pretend to care, they really won't; the West won't take the side of any of the some 10 states formed by the total break up of Russia in the 2030's, preferring to be a spectator and denounce the violence from afar, happy that its old nemesis has finally been done in.

10) The Weaponization of Space... more of a "should we have" by this point.

11) Still coping with some of the effects of climate change, though the total disaster that was predicted never took place.

12) International aid... the planet has the capacity to feed a population that is now 10 billion, but we can't get the food there... still.

Wildcards:

Africa - Will it finally find its footing in the modern world?

Atlantic Europe - Will it finally come to terms with its true irrelevance in the modern era, or will it still arrogantly try to act as the world's guiding light?

China - Is the Chinese government going weaken its grasp on the coastal provinces in order to keep the economy humming, or will it attempt a crackdown and go into isolation as it has in the past?  Eitherway, the pressures created by the burgeoning wealth on the coasts and the continued lack of development in the interior, plus growing ethnic concerns, which by this point will be shrouded in economics, will cause the government to weaken.  This will likely take place by 2030, but will still be an issue in 2050.

India - Has it continued its benevolent growth as a friend of the United States?  There are three "what ifs" there.


Hey Soulty, have you read The Next 100 Years[/i because some of your predictions are familiar to the ideas in that book.

I borrowed some of his ideas, yes. Wink  Really good book.  He makes alot of sense.

Yes, I liked it as well. The only thing I found strange was the world war between Turkey, Japan, Poland and the US. Othereise I found it really intresting.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #42 on: August 04, 2009, 02:42:48 pm »

Off topic: Has anyone ever played the game Mass Effect, it's great and the backstory is intresting.


Anyway,  I'd like to make some predictions as well on the issues and the future.

The Issues- 2050.

Artifical Intelligence: I think that there will be an outright ban on this, not VI or Virtual Intelligence but AI. Think if robots could think for themselves. Scary.

Immigration: Once again, the United States will implement a system that will halt the great waves of immigration that are occuring today. I think this will happen sometime in the late 2010s,

Morality: The Science vs. God arguement, should life extension be allowed? Or is that messing with Mother Nature?  Is human cloning a good idea? Personally if you could call me a socially moderate republican today, I'll be more socially conservative then Rush Limbaugh in the future if these are the issues.

National Parks: As mentioned before, in an ever-advancing knowledge society, people will want to protect our heritage.

Civil Liberties: Self-explanatory

Space Warfare: Self-explanatory

My Predictions

I think that the republican party will still be the party of conservatism, just in different way. More in the mold of Tom Dewey, Nixon, and Rockefeller.

China will turn into what Japan is today, after chatastrophic failures in the 2020s and 2030s.

Japan will join the UN Security Council.

The Chinese will be the first to return to the moon, in 2018. The US will be back there in 2019. The Japanese and Europeans will arrive soon on there also. Due to economic problems, China will pull the plug on most of there operations. The US will be the first to land on Mars in 2034. Colonies will be set up on both, though Mars rather later.

Rising India will be talked about like China and Japan are today. Except unlike China, It will be a strategic ally of the US

The USA will still be top dog, although in a more multipolar world.
To take a stab at what the major issues will be at this time, in no particular order...

1) Human Cloning

2) The rights of people in an ever more technological society

3) Moral issues about how much science should do

4) What is a person (meaning that I think abortion will actually still be an issue, but also in terms of cloned humans, and perhaps even robots and animals by this point)

5) Fear over an emerging Japan and Turkey

6) Anti-immigration laws... after we have spent 2020-2040 in a rush to import labor, like the rest of the current first world

7) America's aging infrastructure (this is an issue about every 40 years)

8 ) Potential admittance of at least some of Canada into the Union (this will likely take the shape of eastern Canada wanting to join the (now far weaker than today) European Union, while sections of Western Canada wish to go with the United States, Ontario and British Columbia will be the two provinces most happy with the status quo; assuming the idea of a Canadian Nation has any validity, the early 21st century will take it to the breaking point

9) Globally, the continued carnage of the Russian War of Dissolution will be on everyone's tv's, but while people in the West will pretend to care, they really won't; the West won't take the side of any of the some 10 states formed by the total break up of Russia in the 2030's, preferring to be a spectator and denounce the violence from afar, happy that its old nemesis has finally been done in.

10) The Weaponization of Space... more of a "should we have" by this point.

11) Still coping with some of the effects of climate change, though the total disaster that was predicted never took place.

12) International aid... the planet has the capacity to feed a population that is now 10 billion, but we can't get the food there... still.

Wildcards:

Africa - Will it finally find its footing in the modern world?

Atlantic Europe - Will it finally come to terms with its true irrelevance in the modern era, or will it still arrogantly try to act as the world's guiding light?

China - Is the Chinese government going weaken its grasp on the coastal provinces in order to keep the economy humming, or will it attempt a crackdown and go into isolation as it has in the past?  Eitherway, the pressures created by the burgeoning wealth on the coasts and the continued lack of development in the interior, plus growing ethnic concerns, which by this point will be shrouded in economics, will cause the government to weaken.  This will likely take place by 2030, but will still be an issue in 2050.

India - Has it continued its benevolent growth as a friend of the United States?  There are three "what ifs" there.


Hey Soulty, have you read The Next 100 Years[/i because some of your predictions are familiar to the ideas in that book.

I borrowed some of his ideas, yes. Wink  Really good book.  He makes alot of sense.

Yes, I liked it as well. The only thing I found strange was the world war between Turkey, Japan, Poland and the US. Othereise I found it really intresting.

I think that part was a tiny bit of a stretch as well.  Seemed a little contrived, but his reasoning behind his assertions seemed pretty sound.  I think Poland is the future of Europe, Turkey the future of the Eastern Med and Middle East, and Japan will prophet from China's internal weakness.  All those ideas were thought I had going into the book, but never really put together until I read it.  Really, history does repeat itself, and old trends reassert themselves in new ways.

I have been saying for a long time that I still believed Russia was the real threat for the immediate future, not China, and he lays down a very good argument for that point.
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« Reply #43 on: August 04, 2009, 03:39:18 pm »
« Edited: August 04, 2009, 03:49:14 pm by Supersoulty »

To take a stab at what the major issues will be at this time, in no particular order...

2) The rights of people in an ever more technological society
You mean the ACLU  complaining in 2050 that people's health insurance companies won't let them eat pizza?

3) Moral issues about how much science should do How exactly would any of this work? If trying to stop abortion or stem cell research hasn't been dicey when tried- you ain't seem anything yet!

5) Fear over an emerging Japan and Turkey - can a socially backwards Turkey or Greying Japan be really that powerful in 40 years? Possibly. I can see Turkey becoming a center-left military junta that will be able to make Turkey into the "Disneyland with the Death Penality"...but also has millions of soldiers. Japan is already jumping on the AI wagon and will probably jump on the human cloning wagon as soon as someone finds a way to reliably do it. If people aren't going to have, let alone raise their kids, the Japanese government will.

6) Anti-immigration laws... after we have spent 2020-2040 in a rush to import labor, like the rest of the current first world I am guessing they will probably be from Africa and Russia, instead of a fully-modern and prosperous Latin America

8 ) Potential admittance of at least some of Canada into the Union (this will likely take the shape of eastern Canada wanting to join the (now far weaker than today) European Union, while sections of Western Canada wish to go with the United States, Ontario and British Columbia will be the two provinces most happy with the status quo; assuming the idea of a Canadian Nation has any validity, the early 21st century will take it to the breaking point Perhaps the more developed parts of Mexico as well

9) Globally, the continued carnage of the Russian War of Dissolution will be on everyone's tv's, but while people in the West will pretend to care, they really won't; the West won't take the side of any of the some 10 states formed by the total break up of Russia in the 2030's, preferring to be a spectator and denounce the violence from afar, happy that its old nemesis has finally been done in. Will Eurasia be the new Africa?

11) Still coping with some of the effects of climate change, though the total disaster that was predicted never took place.  Hmmm....I give the predicted collapse a 30% chance of happening and a 40% chance of it causing substantial long-term harm to the economy...and a 20% chance of it being a moderately important issue and only a 10% chance of everything being honky dorey.

12) International aid... the planet has the capacity to feed a population that is now 10 billion, but we can't get the food there... still. This time, it will be where they cannot grow food but for global warming.

Wildcards:

China - Is the Chinese government going weaken its grasp on the coastal provinces in order to keep the economy humming, or will it attempt a crackdown and go into isolation as it has in the past?  Eitherway, the pressures created by the burgeoning wealth on the coasts and the continued lack of development in the interior, plus growing ethnic concerns, which by this point will be shrouded in economics, will cause the government to weaken.  This will likely take place by 2030, but will still be an issue in 2050. The most likely thing is that a progressive China emerges in China proper after shedding its Tibetans, Uyghurs and other more conservative minorities



2) Something like that.  Also to what extent your information should be stored and made available to others.

3) Odds are, opponents of new directions in science will meet with only limited success, as has always been the historical pattern.  But the faster science advances, the more persistent an issue this will become.

5) The Japanese will have one of the best sources of labor imaginable right in their backyard... China.  The Chinese and Japanese hate each other, but likely Japan will offer Chinese business protection from the Central government, in exchange for their continued production for Japanese capital.  Economics turns enemies into friends pretty quickly. 

The Turks are advancing, and also have a ready supply of labor in their backyard, along with several even more backwards countries over which they will be able to exert considerable influence.  They are also the only county in that part of the world with any considerable access to trade, and a population to take advantage of that access.  If Iraq doesn't split (big "if") then its access to the world is limited by geography (mostly landlocked) and all other states in the region are limited by similar factors, while the Persian Gulf makes for a less than ideal trade route (Strait of Hormuz)... not to mention that control over oil will be less a concern by this time.  Turkey has alot of potential as a reemerging power and faces few serious challengers.

6) Most likely, though I'd say India will also be a major contributor, as they will be one of the few countries actually eager to shed some of their population, and will most likely still be allies of the United States.

8 ) Depends on quite a few things with Mexico.  Will we exert more authority over their northern states, or they over our southern?  This will likely be a battle of economics over culture.

9) Most likely.  Central Asia has no promise in terms of the future.  There is just too much working against it.  Russia is challenging the West, yet again, and will likely continue to assert itself at a great and greater level over the next decade.  It will lose this challenge, to a strong alliance of the United States, Poland, and their immediate allies in the region (the U.S.-Poland relationship will be the new US-UK... not that the Anglo-American Alliance will weaken).

The irony of the modern age is that, as the world become more integrated, people are reaching more and more for their own national identity.  There is no "Russia" as such.  The vastness of the Russian state hides the fact that there are many regions in that expanse (even after the Cold War break up) that have their own identities and interests.  The first time the central authority in Moscow was thoroughly discredited, Russia broke apart at its edges.  This will happen again, but the edges are now not just the periphery, but what remains of the historical Russia itself.  The last of what can really be called "Russia" will splinter.

The very notion of a Russian nation has always been hard to maintain.  Battles over what "Russia" is, how it is to be identified and with whom, have raged on throughout its history.

Russian culture is fundamentally paranoid, and now they truly are the at the lowest level of security, as a state, that they have been in 400 years.  They know that what I just said is true, which is why they are acting now, in the hopes of preventing internal destruction.

11) There will likely be some rise in global sea levels.  There will be some shift into the northern climes of warmer weather... which will mean better growing seasons there.  But by about 2030, CO2 emissions will be headed in the other direction, and the melt water from the glaciers will cause a minor trend back in the other direction.  I'm not that worried, just so long as we don't go nuts, and I think the general trend is away from that.

12) The real problem is, and always has been, access to food supplies.  The United States wastes enough food each day to feed double its population for that day... that waste is either direct, i.e. because the food sits on a dock somewhere waiting to be exported, or indirect, such as in the case of people who receive generous subsidies deciding not to farm.

Problem is, the domestic situation of many starving countries is such that the people there either lack the means to purchase the food, or we lack the ability to get it to them, even for free.  There would not be so many starving countries if their governments weren't keeping us out in one way or another.

We have also gobbled up tons of farm land via the expansion of suburbia, which is on the way out.

China - The most likely thing is that the coastal areas flee into the arms of the West/Japan, and are either successful, or not.  Eitherway, China's problem are going to keep it from developing into a major threat.  China needs rapid economic growth not only to thrive, but to keep from collapse; which is why they are so anxious to buy up our debt.  They need us to keep buying their products no matter what the cost to them.  But this rapid growth is coming with more challenges.  The internal situation in China is a mess.
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« Reply #44 on: August 04, 2009, 03:54:08 pm »

BTW... the ethnic problems in China are not just in the extreme interior.  They are all over the place.
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« Reply #45 on: August 04, 2009, 05:11:50 pm »

LOL

Guys, look at the issues from 40 years ago. They really aren't all that different from the ones we're discussing today. The basic things remain the same no matter how much technology evolves.

The top issues will be: national defense, taxes, education, environmental protection, various social issues, and probably still healthcare
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« Reply #46 on: August 04, 2009, 09:54:04 pm »

BTW... the ethnic problems in China are not just in the extreme interior.  They are all over the place.

Hmmm...so I am guessing the "Han" thing is only for the parts of China that are on the Yellow River? Eitherway, if the Chinese Coast did become its own country, it would have about 1m sq mi and about 400 000 000. So yeah, I can see China as the new Japan. And Japan as the new America and China as the new Mexico. Tongue

I agree somewhat with that as well. Some of these things are being done better and better by the day by even an average business or labortory mainframe, some of these issues will probably take another 200 years. Like I said, the AI timeline is probably the most accurate timeline to date. The most primitive androids claimed to be about 100 years old. It was about the year 2125, so that means the first "mechas" were around since like 2025....and the first full simulation in a machine happened that year.

I still think that strong AI is nearly impossible, at least with the current design of computers.

As for your points about androids, I don't see those coming to pass to be honest. They're not that practical, especially when you can by many very cheap specialized robots. A good example is Roomba, you'd have one that mows the lawn, perhaps some automatic kitchen appliances, etc.


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The life expectancy will be high eighties, maybe low nineties in places like Japan.

All forms of cancer will probably have high surviveblility rates. All demographic groups will have low birthrates, but that's ok because people live much longer. The slowing of aging to advance a career is an interesting idea. Though the cultural may make the opposite occur.

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I doubt that would be an issue. Life will probably be extendable for the durations you noted.

See, I'm not sure population will be a problem. The trend in every country is to have fewer children. I wouldn't be surprised if the birthrate in the US was 1.3 or something.

I wonder if colonization of Antarctica will occur around that time. That could help slow the effects of overpopulation and such.

Overpopulation may not be an issue. After all, they were predicting in the 20s that we'd starve to death in the 80s due to overpopulation, it didn't happen.

I personally think the world won't change as much as some think. We'll live longer, family sizes may be a bit smaller, and while there will be some cool advances in technology, I doubt many will be practical.
I agree somewhat with that as well. Some of these things are being done better and better by the day by even an average business or labortory mainframe, some of these issues will probably take another 200 years. Like I said, the AI timeline is probably the most accurate timeline to date. The most primitive androids claimed to be about 100 years old. It was about the year 2125, so that means the first "mechas" were around since like 2025....and the first full simulation in a machine happened that year.

I still think that strong AI is nearly impossible, at least with the current design of computers.

As for your points about androids, I don't see those coming to pass to be honest. They're not that practical, especially when you can by many very cheap specialized robots. A good example is Roomba, you'd have one that mows the lawn, perhaps some automatic kitchen appliances, etc.


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The life expectancy will be high eighties, maybe low nineties in places like Japan.

All forms of cancer will probably have high surviveblility rates. All demographic groups will have low birthrates, but that's ok because people live much longer. The slowing of aging to advance a career is an interesting idea. Though the cultural may make the opposite occur.

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You must be logged in to read this quote.

I doubt that would be an issue. Life will probably be extendable for the durations you noted.

See, I'm not sure population will be a problem. The trend in every country is to have fewer children. I wouldn't be surprised if the birthrate in the US was 1.3 or something.

I wonder if colonization of Antarctica will occur around that time. That could help slow the effects of overpopulation and such.

Overpopulation may not be an issue. After all, they were predicting in the 20s that we'd starve to death in the 80s due to overpopulation, it didn't happen.

I personally think the world won't change as much as some think. We'll live longer, family sizes may be a bit smaller, and while there will be some cool advances in technology, I doubt many will be practical.

In terms of the way you see science in all of this. By the beginning of mid-century (2025-2045)I think we can come to a common ground. We will probably have or be well on our way to doubling our time in "good health" (today it starts when you are 16 or 17 and goes until you are between 35 and 55), while only slightly increase our time of "fair health" (today its about 50 to 70). We will either have a HAL system or be close to that by then. We will probably have started to build space stations throughout the inner solar system and have regular scheduled flights into LEO...but "space towns" or "star ships".

Where do you think we will be in term of finding aliens, or at least an alien planet...not just some ice rock or giant ball of flaming gas.
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #47 on: August 04, 2009, 11:31:26 pm »

BTW... the ethnic problems in China are not just in the extreme interior.  They are all over the place.

Hmmm...so I am guessing the "Han" thing is only for the parts of China that are on the Yellow River? Eitherway, if the Chinese Coast did become its own country, it would have about 1m sq mi and about 400 000 000. So yeah, I can see China as the new Japan. And Japan as the new America and China as the new Mexico. Tongue

Not "its own country," but rather that the central government will be forced to relinquish alot of its control over that area, or face total destruction, thus making it a good place to do business, but the Chinese state will be a weak one. 

Really, China is not entirely unique in this regard.  While it is not perfectly analogous, look at the political confrontation between the the coastal US and the interior US during the 1820's and you see a very similar situation... a well developed and wealthy coast at war (figuratively) with a less developed interior that feels as though it is being hosed by the rich folks in the big port cities.  And this pattern is repeated in a number of "one coast" countries.

The difference is that a huge percentage of the Chinese population lives in the interior... whereas this is not the case in many countries that are similar geographic problems.

Perhaps the social fracture would lead to a physical fracture, but that need not be the case.  Eitherway, China's own capital is still limited, but they have a labor supply.  Japan has massive capital, but a limited labor supply.  You do the math.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #48 on: August 04, 2009, 11:40:57 pm »
« Edited: August 05, 2009, 11:59:49 am by Supersoulty »

And the fact is that there is great historical precedent for this problem in China.  It has happened many times, in cycles.  China's coast opens to trade.  That trade creates a massive influx of wealth on the coast, and the interior gets left behind.  The fast social change leads to unrest.  Those who seek to exploit this unrest work the interior against the coast.  The interior prevails (usually through the strangest of circumstances) and China falls back into isolation. 

The Chinese Civil War the 30's and 40's is a prime example.  The Chinese communist movement started on the coasts, but they could not gain enough support there, and so they enacted The Long March into the interior where they knew they could kick up more support.  Through bizarre circumstances, Mao prevailed and China fell back into isolation.  And the opening up of China in the 19th century was following a period where China had gone into isolation for the exact same reasons... and this has happened again, and again, with exactly the same causes and outcomes each time.

What makes now a bit different though is that the world is so integrated today, that total isolation will be hard to achieve, and multinational corporations make it so there are extra-national entities that can keep the coastal economy active.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #49 on: August 05, 2009, 01:51:38 am »

I suspect the issues of 2050 will be much the same as the issues of today, but with an awesome FUTURISTIC twists, like the following:

Whether or not to allow ROBOsexual marriages, adoption, etc.

Should SPAAAAAAAAAAAACE abortions be legal or illegal?

What do with all those illegal (SPAAAAAAAACE) aliens

Should the government subsidize PhDs and other advanced doctoral degrees, which future children will need to get any jobs that pay more than minimum wage?

How should we best pursue the War on (ROBOT) Terror?

Things like that.
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