Maine, 1940

[Verily]

In 1940, five states swung towards Roosevelt. Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and North Carolina did so only marginally. But Maine swung strongly towards him, making the change in Maine 1936-1940 one of the strongest trends outside of the South in recent electoral history.

Anyone know why?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bad news for FDR between September and November?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ethnic (in this case English) voting perhaps? Which parts of Maine swung strongest?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ethnic (in this case English) voting perhaps? Which parts of Maine swung strongest?

Or French voters?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It looks like southern Maine had the larger swing.

[Hash]

It looks like southern Maine had the larger swing.

That's Anglo Maine, isn't it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This appears to be the swing map:

[Hash]

Can't see it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Can't see it.

It's invisible unless you give Dave Leip some moola.

[Rob]

I'd imagine there were probably two factors: demographic trends (increased turnout among Democratic-voting ethnic groups); and a fairly big swing to Roosevelt among traditionally Republican WASPs due to his stances on foreign policy (this went alongside a strong GOP trend among Germans, Italians, and the Irish).

[Kevinstat]

Bad news for FDR between September and November?

I believe presidential elections in Maine were held in November even back then.  I know they were in 1908 and 1952 from some newspaper clippings and a book I've read part of.  And both those elections were in the period of time when all other general elections in Maine were held in September.  Maine's general elections for non-Presidential offices were moved to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November for the 1960 election.  It's wierd that Maine swung strongly towards FDR as the Repubilcans had re-solidified themselves in the state by then.  Maine had elected/reelected a Democratic Governor and 2 out of three Democratic U.S. Representatives in 1932 and 934 (Maine had two-year terms for its Governor from the 1880 election, before which terms for the Governor and the Legislature were for one year, until the 1958 election when the Governor was first elected for a four-year term, although the only special Gubernatorial election in Maine was on Election Day 1960 when the State Senate President turned Governor was elected to serve the remainder of the late Governor's term), and came burning close to electing a Democratic Senator in 1934 and fairly close in 1936, but in 1936 Republicans won all major offices in Maine and by 1940 I believe they were winning everything (besides the Presidential race where Wendell Willkie's margin was only 2.33% give or take 0.01% (51.10% to 48.77%), ironically enough considering its election of Democrat Louis Brann as Governor in September 1932 followed by its 12.64% give or take 0.01% (55.83% to 43.19%) margin for Herbert Hoover that November).

I think Maine's strong swing toward Roosevelt from 1936 (when Alf Landon beat FDR by 13.97% give or take 0.01% (55.49% to 41.52%)) to 1940 could be at least partly explained by liberal Republicans being turned off by what might have seemed like Willkie's opportunistic libertarianism (I've whatched an interview with some guy from Reason magazine and the author of a book called "The Forgetten Men" or something like that the criticized FDR's domestic policies, including the Government offering lower prices for electricity than Willkie's company), and while the points made were valid I don't think they would have sold particularly well in Maine with Willkie's packaging even back then).  Perhaps Maine's being the closest state to a Europe at war made the desire not to replace a President during such timultuous times (without which I doubt Frankly Roosevelt would have been able to win a third term, especially with the hammering he (and I mean he) took at the polls in primary elections (when his attempt to purge conservative Democrats took out only one I believe) and the general election of 1938) bigger in Maine than in elsewhere.  Not that it was enough for FDR to carry the state obviously, but it could have helped make the margin closer along with a non-ideologically distinctive Republican nominee in 1936 giving way to a very ideologically distinctive Republican nominee).  Finally, the combined Union-Socialist-Communist-Socialist Labor vote was 2.87% give or take 0.02% in Maine compared to 2.56% give or take 0.02% nationally, so the collapse of the far-left vote from 1936 to 1940 might have helped Roosevelt in Maine a little bit more than nationally.