The Dark Horse(Election Night-2012)

[aaaa2222]

Go Ron Paul! Win at least one state!
Anyway, very nice timeline, fairly balanced.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Over the next few weeks before the March 22nd primaries, Burr and Romney battle it out. On March 19th John McCain can out to a rally in CO for Burr and put his support behind him. On March 21st polling data came out with head to head match up.


Rasy March 21st poll

(Poll March 22nd states)
Burr: 55%
Romney: 40%
Paul: 2%
Unsure: 3%
-------------

Do you approve of President Obama?
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 49%
Unsure: 8%

Obama: 49%
Romney: 47%

Obama: 43%
Burr: 48%

[Josh/Devilman88]

March 22nd Primary Results


Mitt Romney wins: UT, CO, WA, MD, OR, WI, MD and MN


Richard Burr wins: KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL and KY

--------------

Results by state:

WA:
Romney: 54% (22 delegates)
Burr: 41% (16 delegates)
Paul: 5% (2 delegates)

OR:
Romney: 48% (14 delegates)
Burr: 43% (13 delegates)
Paul: 9% (3 delegates)

UT:
Romney: 87% (31 delegates)
Burr: 5% (2 delegates)
Paul: 8% (3 delegates)

CO:
Romney: 51% (23 delegates)
Burr: 45% (21 delegates)
Paul: 4% (2 delegates)

KS:
Burr: 59% (23 delegates)
Romney: 39% (15 delegates)
Paul: 2% (1 delegate)

OK:
Burr: 62% (25 delegates)
Romney: 34% (14 delegates)
Paul: 4% (2 delegates)

TX:
Burr: 52% (73 delegates)
Romney: 44% (62 delegates)
Paul: 4% (6 delegates)

MN:
Romney: 48% (20 delegates)
Burr: 39% (16 delegates)
Paul: 13% (5 delegates)

WI:
Romney: 47% (20 delegates)
Burr: 46% (20 delegates)
Paul: 7% (3 delegates)

MO:
Burr: 52% (30 delegates)
Romney: 42% (24 delegates)
Paul: 6% (3 delegates)

AL:
Burr: 78% (37 delegates)
Romney: 20% (10 delegates)
Paul: 2% (1 delegate)

LA:
Burr: 63% (29 delegates)
Romney: 35% (16 delegates)
Paul: 2% (1 delegate)

AR:
Burr: 72% (24 delegates)
Romney: 25% (9 delegates)
Paul: 3% (1 delegate)

MS:
Burr: 81% (31 delegates)
Romney: 17% (6 delegates)
Paul: 2% (1 delegate)

KY:
Burr: 70% (31 delegates)
Romney: 28% (13 delegates)
Paul: 2% (1 delegate)

MD:
Romney: 53% (20 delegates)
Burr: 43% (16 delegates)
Paul: 4% (2 delegates)





Results Map:

Green: Mitt Romney (807 delegates)
Blue: Richard Burr (933 delegates)
Red: Ron Paul (103 delegates)
-------

March 22nd was a very good night for Burr, but a better night for Romney. Romney got the amount of votes he need to keep Burr from crossing that magic number. Right now Burr is only 93 delegates away from crossing that magic line.
Romney said his is going to stay in the race because anything could happen. 

[aaaa2222]

*Hopes for Ron Paul to broker the Republican convention*
Any actual delegate numbers for the three?

[Josh/Devilman88]

*Hopes for Ron Paul to broker the Republican convention*
Any actual delegate numbers for the three?

I will try to see if I can get somewhat real delegate numbers.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If Obama's approvals are at 43%, he won't win reelection, nor could he be ahead of ROmney by 6% and only trail Burr by 1% ..

But good timeline nonetheless. I'd like to see how Burr did if he actually ran for President. Romney could make the argument that he has no executive experience like Obama and compare the mess Obama has made to what he might do. It depends if Romney is still the darling of the right like he was when he dropped out last February.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I have the total delegates done, look on the results maps plus the state by state results. The number need to win is 1088 delegates.

----

Over the few between March 22nd and April 19th the battle raged even more between Burr and Romney. Romney playing on how he has ran a state before and he know how to run a county. Burr would say look at history, one of our greatest president, Abe Lincoln was a senator and not a governor. On the other hand the Democrats were attacking both Romney and Burr saying that they would run the country into another hole, like Bush did.

Rasy Poll on April 18th:

Head to head

Burr: 45%
Obama: 41%

Romney: 46%
Obama: 45%

[Josh/Devilman88]

April 19th Primary Results


Mitt Romney wins: NY, PA, MI and IL


Richard Burr wins: OH, GA and FL

--------------

Results by state:

NY:
Romney: 54% (55 delegates)
Burr: 44% (44 delegates)
Paul: 2% (2 delegates)

PA:
Romney: 48% (36 delegates)
Burr: 46% (34 delegates)
Paul: 6% (4 delegates)

OH:
Burr: 49% (43 delegates)
Romney: 45% (40 delegates)
Paul: 6% (5 delegates)

MI:
Romney: 55% (33 delegates)
Burr: 41% (25 delegates)
Paul: 4% (2 delegates)

IL:
Romney: 54% (38 delegates)
Burr: 44% (31 delegates)
Paul: 2% (1 delegate)

GA:
Burr: 69% (50 delegates)
Romney: 25% (18 delegates)
Paul: 6% (4 delegates)

FL:
Burr: 58% (66 delegates)
Romney: 39% (44 delegates)
Paul: 3% (3 delegates)


Results Map:

Green: Mitt Romney (1071 delegates)
Blue: Richard Burr (1226 delegates)
Red: Ron Paul (124 delegates)
-------

Congrats to Republican Nominee Richard Burr!!










[/quote]

[Josh/Devilman88]

That night Mitt Romney said he wishes Richard Burr the best of luck in Nov and would fully support him in his race. The days following Richard Burr winning reports came out about Richard Burr running mate. Names where being leaked out to the public. Them names were: Mitt Romney, Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr, Gov. Sarah Palin, Sen. Susan Collins, Rep. Michele Bachmann, Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Sen. Joseph Lieberman.

May 2nd RCP Election Map.

Strong Obama: 159
Lean Obama: 66
Slight Obama: 26
Toss-up: 60
Slight Burr: 28
Lean Burr: 26
Strong Burr: 173

Head to Head
Obama: 47%
Burr: 43%

Obama's approval rating
Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 49%

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I wonder who josh4bush would support in a Obama versus Burr race?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Burr wouldn't consider Lieberman.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Burr wouldn't consider Lieberman.

I never said he is, I said them are then name that are being leaked, not every leak is right.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

That night Mitt Romney said he wishes Richard Burr the best of luck in Nov and would fully support him in his race. The days following Richard Burr winning reports came out about Richard Burr running mate. Names where being leaked out to the public. Them names were: Mitt Romney, Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr, Gov. Sarah Palin, Sen. Susan Collins, Rep. Michele Bachmann, Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Sen. Joseph Lieberman.

May 2nd RCP Election Map.

Strong Obama: 159
Lean Obama: 66
Slight Obama: 26
Toss-up: 60
Slight Burr: 28
Lean Burr: 26
Strong Burr: 173

Head to Head
Obama: 47%
Burr: 43%

Obama's approval rating
Approve: 51%
Disapprove: 49%

I mostly agree with this map, with a few exceptions.

I think that it would be more like this.

[Josh/Devilman88]

After weeks of no big political news, on June 22nd VP Joe Biden and President Barack Obama held a rally in DE. At that rally Joe Biden said he would not seek another term as VP. VP Biden said his health has went down hill and the Doctor told him he need to step down from VP if he wanted to not have a heart attack. After that President Obama had to pick a new running mate for the 2012 election. Some of the names that were flying around were: SoS Hillary Clinton, Sen. Mark Warner, Sen. Claire McCaskill, Sen. Evan Bayh and Gov. Brian Schweitzer.

On the Republican side, they were working hard to get that indy vote. Sen. Burr has backed off on alot of the far right views that he hold and said he would do what the people of America wants not what he wants. Also the VP games were still going on. They press seem to have narrowed it down to four people and they are: Mitt Romney, Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr, Sen. Susan Collins and Rep. Michele Bachmann.

---------

RCP Map:

Strong Obama: 94
Lean Obama: 83
Slight Obama: 38
Tossup: 74
Slight Burr: 23
Lean Burr: 43
Strong Burr: 183

Head to Head
Burr: 46
Obama:42

Obama approval ratings
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 51%

[Josh/Devilman88]

One month has pass since VP Joe Biden told America he wouldn't seek another term as VP. Now it is July 22nd and both party are gearing up for there Convention. The DNC will be held in Dallas, TX from Aug 27-29.  The RNC will be held in San Antionio, TX from Aug 20-22. Sen. Burr has said he will tell who is VP is on Aug 13th. President Obama on the other hand hasn't stated when he would tell who will be replacing VP Biden.

Rasy Poll for July 21st

Burr: 47%
Obama: 45%

[Josh/Devilman88]

Burr's VP Rally

On Monday Aug 13th Sen. Burr held a VP rally in Greenbay, WI. Sen. Burr came out on stage to name his running mate.

Richard Burr speech:

" This person I have picked to be my running mate is a true American. This person has worked hard for America. This person knows how to work well with others and will stand up for the small people in America. Green Bay please welcome your next Vice President...."

Michele Bachmann



----------

This pick went over well with the public. After the Republican ticket were made out, they raised more money to use on the campaign. Their polls number increased over the next few weeks. They looked unstoppable.


RCP Map:

Strong Obama: 87
Lean Obama: 61
Slight Obama: 37
Tossup: 78
Slight Burr: 19
Lean Burr: 57
Strong Burr: 199

Head to Head
Burr/Bachmann: 51%
Obama/?: 46%
Unsure: 3%

[Josh/Devilman88]

On Aug 16th President Obama held a rally in Denver, CO. At that rally he named his new running mate.

"Denver, this guy is a great man, he has worked hard his whole life. He knows how to work with both Democrats and Republican. Please welcome our next VP.."

Sen. Evan Bayh!


--------

Alot of people were shocked Obama didn't pick SoS Clinton, this pick was a mix of good and bad. But the pick did make Obama's number jump a little.

RCP Map on Aug 19th:

Head to Head
Obama/Bayh:48%
Burr/Bachmann:47%

[Psychic Octopus]

Vice President Bachmann

[Josh/Devilman88]

Both of the Party's had their conventions, and every thing went well. After both of the conventions and tickets were made it was time for the real race to start. President Obama approval ratings were staying about 47%.  Richard Burr and Michele Bachmann ran on the idea of bring another Reagan Era, it seem to work in some places.

RCP on Sep 10th:

Strong Obama: 88
Lean Obama: 80
Slight Obama: 69
Toss-up: 44
Slight Burr: 19
Lean Burr: 61
Strong Burr: 177

Head to Head
Burr/Bachmann: 47%
Obama/Bayh: 45%

[Josh/Devilman88]

It is now Oct 3rd, the day of the first Presidental Debate. Between Sep. 10th and now the races heated up with Pres. Obama strongly attacking the Republican ticke as being to right wing for America. Saying that they wouldn't bring another Reagen Era but another Bush Era. On the other side, Burr attacked the President on this lack of getting the Economy into shape. Also attacking Obama and not working with both Democrats and Republican, Burr called Obama Pelosi's puppet.

The 1st Presidental Debate was very heated, Burr and Obama both attacked each other's views. But in the end the only thing that was remember was when Burr turn and looked at Obama and said " Mr. President when will you cut them strings that Nancy Pelosi has a hold of?" This fired up the Republican party and made the Democrats very angry. The next big thing coming up was the VP debate on Oct 11th.

RCP Map Oct 7th:

Strong Obama: 85
Lean Obama: 75
Slight Obama: 46
Toss-up: 56
Slight Burr: 28
Lean Burr: 23
Strong Burr: 225

Head to Head
Burr/Bachmann: 53%
Obama/Bayh: 44%

[DownWithTheLeft]

It would be pretty shocking to see only Burr challenge Rokney in 2012 considering neither one appeals to the religious right. Burr could run assuming he actually gets reelected in 2010. He hasn't been putting his name out there though.

I have a funny feeling that Roy Cooper will not run and Burr will still be re-elected.

[Josh/Devilman88]

It would be pretty shocking to see only Burr challenge Rokney in 2012 considering neither one appeals to the religious right. Burr could run assuming he actually gets reelected in 2010. He hasn't been putting his name out there though.

I have a funny feeling that Roy Cooper will not run and Burr will still be re-elected.

If Roy Cooper runs, the only way that Burr will be able to hold on to his seat is if the Republicans have a good election year, and as of right now it looks like a good election year in 2010 for the Democratic Party.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I have a funny feeling that Burr will be re-elected regardless of whether or not Cooper will run.

[Josh/Devilman88]

The VP debate was held and it was an easy win for Evan Bayh. Both Bayh and Bachmann knew their stuff, but Bayh came across and the more likeable person. This bumped the polls number for Obama/Bayh up just a bit. The 2nd Presidental debate is next Monday.

RCP Map on 14th:

Head to head
Burr/Bachmann: 50%
Obama/Bayh: 46%

[Josh/Devilman88]

The 2nd Presidental Debate wasn't has good as the first one. This time the ended up with a tie. The debate make the race a little closer, but the news that the goverment needs to rasie taxes to pay for some of the programs that Pres. Obama signed this year did go over well. This made a close election to a not so close election. Pres. Obama needs to turn this thing around or he will lose re-election.

RCP Map on Oct 20th:

Head to Head

Burr/Bachmann: 55%
Obama/Bayh: 40%