When does Specter face retribution?

[Keystone Phil]

Specter is a wonderful example of what the Republican Party should be.

Slowly dying?

LOL

Specter is a wonderful example of what the Republican Party should be.

I hope you don't mean personally. He's a spineless, self centered, ego maniac with a very nasty streak. His fans would admit this as well (well, maybe not the first adjective).

[Keystone Phil]

Specter is a wonderful example of what the Republican Party should be.

I hope you don't mean personally. He's a spineless, self centered, ego maniac with a very nasty streak politician. His fans would admit this as well (well, maybe not the first adjective).

Fixed.

Also, Specter probably just guaranteed his defeat in the primary in 2010... unless, of course, the stimulus is an unbelievable success, but I kind of doubt that.

LOL

You clearly aren't familiar with Specter. It's beyond just "typical politician" with that guy and that reputation is well known across PA.

[Keystone Phil]

Your statements about Specter are approaching CARLHAYDEN-John McCain levels:

"ZOMG you have no idea he's from my state and he's really, really evil."

I didn't say he was evil or perceived as being evil. I'm saying that Arlen Specter is a known asshole. Capitol Hill staffers had buttons made up which read, "Arlen Specter Yelled at Me." The man is called "Snarlin' Arlen" by his fans. He's not known to be a nice person. It's well known in PA. He's re-elected for other reasons.

[Keystone Phil]

Obama won PA 55%-44%.  John Kerry won it 51%-48%.

Specter hasn't survived this long by being a fool.

Who ever said he was being a fool? He's a good politician. He's great at surviving. He's good at making people feel that they need him or this state would cease to exist.

Specter's won more than anyone else in Pennsylvania but he's not beloved. In 2004, he won with just 53% of the vote. The Constitution party candidate got 4%. 1998 was a landslide because he had a terrible opponent. He barely survived in 1992. He barely won in 1980.

The man has high approval ratings but when it comes down to deciding whether or not to keep him around, he's usually in a tough race and only made it over 50% three times.

I warn my friends that go crazy for Specter to realize that this seat isn't a lock with Specter. He's older and not in the best health. 2010 could be a good year for us but if he gets a strong challenger and conservatives sit this race out, look for another headache for Snarlin' Arlen.

[Keystone Phil]

usually with the backing of the GOP establishment.

And, this time, Santorum and scores of moderate to liberal Republicans (that left the party between 2006 - 2008) won't be around to save his ass.

[Keystone Phil]

usually with the backing of the GOP establishment.

And, this time, Santorum and scores of moderate to liberal Republicans (that left the party between 2006 - 2008) won't be around to save his ass.

Bush too, IIRC.  the GOP doesn't really have any prominent figureheads right now so that could work to his disadvantage in a hotly contested primary.

Yes, Bush, too but the fact that so many Specter "Republicans" left the party is Arlen's biggest problem.

did he get any national Republican money in the primary in 2004 or did the RNC/RSCC (or whatever the acronym is) stay out of it?

Uh...they were very involved. They hated what Toomey was doing. They really believed the idiotic idea that Specter would help Bush win PA.

[Keystone Phil]

so he may get some more national money this time around...

Wait, who did you mean? Specter received the national establishment money in 2004. Toomey got support/money from national conservative groups.

I bet the NRSC is still active for Specter but maybe not to the extent that they were in 2004.

[Keystone Phil]

yes, I meant Specter

He won't get more money just because he's in more danger. The GOP has a lot more important seats to defend. Saving Specter probably won't be a top priority.

[Keystone Phil]

yes, I meant Specter

He won't get more money just because he's in more danger. The GOP has a lot more important seats to defend. Saving Specter probably won't be a top priority.

Would they rather Specter in the seat or Schwartz?

I don't know why you keep doing the same routine with me, Smash. Give it a rest.

[Keystone Phil]

Well that is the question. At this point it may not make a difference whether Arlen or a Democrat occupies the seat. This could scone a pattern if he and Collins/Snowe are the defacto 60th seats.

It's not a serious question; it's more of his usual nonsense. I reject the premise of the question since he entertains the idea that only Specter can win.

[Keystone Phil]

Well that is the question. At this point it may not make a difference whether Arlen or a Democrat occupies the seat. This could scone a pattern if he and Collins/Snowe are the defacto 60th seats.

It's not a serious question; it's more of his usual nonsense. I reject the premise of the question since he entertains the idea that only Specter can win.

It's possible that Toomey could win if the stimulus fails, but if the environment is favorable Dem or tossup, I can't see any Republican but Specter winning in Pennsylvania. There would need to be a GOP environment for it to happen. I guess if the stimulus does fail, Specter would lose a primary, and then Toomey may have a chance. It's hard to tell right now, but I can't see this bill working out.

I'd have more success arguing with cancer than with some of you people.

I'm glad you guys know exactly how everything will work out nearly two years before the vote. "Well, he could have a chance but it's not likely..."

[Keystone Phil]

Well that is the question. At this point it may not make a difference whether Arlen or a Democrat occupies the seat. This could scone a pattern if he and Collins/Snowe are the defacto 60th seats.

It's not a serious question; it's more of his usual nonsense. I reject the premise of the question since he entertains the idea that only Specter can win.

It's possible that Toomey could win if the stimulus fails, but if the environment is favorable Dem or tossup, I can't see any Republican but Specter winning in Pennsylvania. There would need to be a GOP environment for it to happen. I guess if the stimulus does fail, Specter would lose a primary, and then Toomey may have a chance. It's hard to tell right now, but I can't see this bill working out.

I'd have more success arguing with cancer than with some of you people.

I'm glad you guys know exactly how everything will work out nearly two years before the vote. "Well, he could have a chance but it's not likely..."

Calm down Phil. I never said anywhere this I knew what was going to happen, nor did I say it was not likely to occur. I said I expect the stimulus to fail, and in turn, Specter will be vulnerable.

Has he said he is even running for reelection? He might just retire if it looks like he may lose a primary and the GOP tells him he's on his own. I believe Toomey can win a race in a GOP favorable cycle. I think it's a bit risky to believe that he could win if the stimulus improves the economy come 2010 and it appears as if the Democrats could further increase their margins. You know more about PA Politics than I do by a long shot, but I can't see a guy who was against the stimulus successfully win the race if the bill is successful. Do you?

Maybe you didn't pick up on the fact that Arlen's ego is the size of the entire Senate's time ten.

He made it "official" in 2007 that he'd be running again. He won't leave the Senate until he is beaten or dead.

There is more to 2010 than just this bill. Obama and the Dems can be unpopular for other reasons. We don't know yet. Toomey doesn't need the stimulus to be a failure to beat Specter in a primary and even if the stimulus is a success, Toomey still has a chance in an average type of midterm year. Will it be difficult? Sure. Impossible? Absolutely not.

[Keystone Phil]

So Toomey officially turned it down?

Paging Rick...

[Keystone Phil]

yes, I meant Specter

He won't get more money just because he's in more danger. The GOP has a lot more important seats to defend. Saving Specter probably won't be a top priority.

Would they rather Specter in the seat or Schwartz?

I don't know why you keep doing the same routine with me, Smash. Give it a rest.

Oh I think he asked a good question.  Specter at least votes with the GOP a fair bit of the time.   

It's the same old rhetoric that you spew, too. "Specter or automatic Dem pickup!" Give it a rest.

[Keystone Phil]

yes, I meant Specter

He won't get more money just because he's in more danger. The GOP has a lot more important seats to defend. Saving Specter probably won't be a top priority.

Would they rather Specter in the seat or Schwartz?

I don't know why you keep doing the same routine with me, Smash. Give it a rest.

Oh I think he asked a good question.  Specter at least votes with the GOP a fair bit of the time.   

It's the same old rhetoric that you spew, too. "Specter or automatic Dem pickup!" Give it a rest.

Do the math....

Yeah, like I said, I've been through the same routine with you for years now, Smash. Here's "the math"...

1 Democrat runs for office + 1 Republican + 3 other kind of nutty people = AN AMAZING DEM WIN!

Hmm, now can we get away with Wilson Goode Sr. as the Dem nominee?  John Street?  Hey, should we nominate Jack Murtha?  Paul Kanjorski?  Help us please, we wouldn't know who a good candidate is.

So now you're going to pick absolutely batshit potential nominees and compare them to Toomey and Santorum? Give me a break.

[Keystone Phil]

but my default rating would be at least an 80% chance for the DEM to win.

That's just ridiculous. What is that based on? It will be a midterm year and if the Dems nominate someone like Schwartz, they most certainly don't have more than a 50-50 shot.

Pennsylvania of 2010 is certainly not likely to be the Pennsylvania of 2008. I think people are making a huge mistake in basically labeling us a safe Dem state. You want to say that any Dem has a 60% shot at the seat? Fine. I'll still strongly disagree but that's a lot more reasonable than 80%!

[Keystone Phil]

I dunno if it's really 80%....but it seems incredibly likely.

Incredibly likely...based on conditions...two years out.

[Keystone Phil]

If the most Bush could muster outside the SE is a 9 point victory how is Tommey going to basically double that margin and put up a 16-18 point victory outside the SE?

Let's entertain these ideas, Smash:

- Turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm election year.

- Bush was very polarizing. Believe it or not, Toomey isn't that polarizing. His focus on fiscal issues could lure in enough moderates in the SE.

[Keystone Phil]

Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.

Ok, I'm glad we did this again, Smash. As if I didn't get your "point" the thirty six other times you've done this. Thanks.

[Keystone Phil]

Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.

Ok, I'm glad we did this again, Smash. As if I didn't get your "point" the thirty six other times you've done this. Thanks.

Yes & I have done it that many times because its true....

We know, Smash. We know. Go sit down now.

[Keystone Phil]

Obviously turnout won't be as high in the SE in a midterm, nor will it be as high in the T or out west, the SE is still going to make up about the same proportion of the vote,  as it has in the past, if anything perhaps a little higher because of the population growth.

Also I don't see how his fiscal positions are going to help him.  Suburban Philly is far from far right on economic issues, its more moderate than anything else.   Things like spending on education is very important, something which will hurt Toomey.  Not to mention his social conservative views.  On top of that the fact Schwartz is from the SE will help her.  Another thing will hurt is the Specter voters aren't exactly going to be  happy, and they have shown they will vote Democratic. 

Having Specter over Toomey may diminish turnout slightly in the T & out west, however they aren't going to be voting for  Schwartz. With Toomey many of these Specter voters aren't going to be voting Toomey, but they won't be staying home either, they will be voting Schwartz.

Ok, I'm glad we did this again, Smash. As if I didn't get your "point" the thirty six other times you've done this. Thanks.

Yes & I have done it that many times because its true....

We know, Smash. We know. Go sit down now.

Phil, just for kicks.  If we were to say 2010 was an average year (Obama having approvals around 50 or so), what do you think would be approx margins in Philly, Selaware, bucks, Chester & Montco in a Schwartz, Toomey match up.

I don't know, Smash, but guess what...

They wouldn't be OMG SCHWARTZ WITH 70% IN ALL OF THOSE!

Santorum even broke 40% in most of those counties and he's far more controversial, was running in a terrible year, etc. And don't give me "But Schwartz is from the SE" nonsense. Casey didn't really run that far behind Rendell.

[Keystone Phil]

Statewide did Casey run that far behind Rendell?  No, but that is because Casey ran ahead of Rendell in he rest of the state, he ran way behind Rendell in the SE.

Rendell ran about ten points higher than Casey in Montco and Bucks, just about five points higher in Philly and about the same in Delaware county.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh...there was no incumbent advantage in 2006 so don't count it as a disadvantage in 2010. Toomey being just as conservative and knocking off Specter would probably be close to being offset by the fact that it's a midterm and turnout will be down (especially among Dems and Independents).

And guess what? You're a certifiable loon if you think she'd run up Casey type numbers in the rest of the state.

But, again, this is the same old game I play with you every couple of months. You're another probable OCD case. You like repeating the same arguments, asking the same questions, saying the same reasons why you're "right," etc.

[Keystone Phil]

I wasn't suggesting Schwartz would put up Casey numbers in the rest of the state, I was talking about the SE.   Those type of numbers get put up in the SE it makes it virtually impossible to win statewide.

And...you know I disagree!

Ok, are we done? No, probably not. You'll respond with, "But I'm right." Ok, then we're done.

[Keystone Phil]

Charlie Dent is a phenomenal replacement (the only candidate I ever put up a lawn sign for!)

You were in PA 15 at some point in your life?

[Keystone Phil]

Snowe, Collins and Specter need to be primaried.

Please include the appropriate disclaimer to that message to comply with FEC regulations:

"This message is brought to you by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and is not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee."

I wonder if Specter had Kerry's campaign put some disclaimer on their infamous joint yard signs.

I wasn't suggesting Schwartz would put up Casey numbers in the rest of the state, I was talking about the SE.   Those type of numbers get put up in the SE it makes it virtually impossible to win statewide.

And...you know I disagree!

Ok, are we done? No, probably not. You'll respond with, "But I'm right." Ok, then we're done.

17 point victory needed in the rest of the state including Pittsburgh when all Bush could muster was 9,  yeah thats going to happen.....

How many times do you need to overestimate Republican strength in your own state before you get it....

Yes, Smash. Absolutely. The Dems will continue to dominate here for the rest of time mainly because you are using some faulty math (not accounting for turnout, change in attitude, etc.).

Run along now, child. You got every last talking point in.