http://www.delawareonline.com/newsjournal/local/2004/09/28delpollputsminn.htmlKerry - 45.2 percent
Bush - 37.6 percent
Nader - 1.3 percent
This 7.6% lead is consistenmt witht he 9% lead found by ARG
Del. poll puts Minner, Kerry on top
But many voters remain undecided
By PATRICK JACKSON
The News Journal
09/28/2004
A poll of major races in Delaware released Monday shows that many state voters still have not made up their minds, even as the first presidential debate approaches this week.
The poll by West Chester University found that Gov. Ruth Ann Minner, Rep. Mike Castle and New Castle County Council President Christopher Coons are leading in their races.
And the sampling of 590 registered voters found Sen. John Kerry is ahead of President Bush, just as other recent polls have shown.
But the poll for WHYY television found that 29.7 percent of respondents have yet to decide between Minner and Lee. In the race between Republican Castle and Democrat Paul Donnelly, the figure was 23.4 percent, and between Coons and his Republican challenger, Christopher Castagno, the New Castle City Council president, it was 44.5 percent .
In the presidential contest, 15.9 percent of Delaware voters are undecided, a larger margin than the 5 percent to 7 percent found in most national polls.
The poll was conducted Sept. 22-25 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points for statewide races and 4.9 percentage points for the New Castle County executive contest.
Democratic officials said the poll shows a presidential race that is fluid, with Kerry gaining momentum as people hear him and Bush focus on the issues.
"The numbers show people are still focusing on the election," said Kerry spokesman Anthony Coley.
Priscilla Rakestraw, a Republican National Committeewoman and delegate to the Republican convention, said she found the poll numbers difficult to believe.
"This is Delaware, where we know our candidates, and to say that 23 percent of the electorate is undecided in the Castle race is ridiculous," she said.
The poll found Kerry leading Bush 45.2 percent to 37.6 percent, with 1.3 percent favoring Independent Ralph Nader and other third-party candidates. Republicans said their own polls show the race to be much closer in Delaware.
Lee said he found the poll's findings to be far different than what a party poll taken last week had found.
The West Chester poll showed Minner leading Lee by 42.4 percent to 26.2 percent, with 1.7 percent favoring Independent Frank Infante. Lee said his poll of 400 likely voters found he trails Minner 45 percent to 39 percent, with 3 percent for Infante and 11 percent undecided. The GOP poll had an error margin of 4.9 percentage points.
"It's interesting, and it's dramatically different from the poll we just ran," Lee said.
Minner, in Alaska attending the Council of State Governments convention, said the West Chester results were in line with her expectations.
"While the percentages in this poll are a little lower than what we've seen," Minner said by e-mail, "the margin between me and my opponent is right in line with what we've seen."
Indecision also showed up when the West Chester pollsters questioned voters about issues.
They saw Bush as better able handle the war on terrorism by 43 percent to 37 percent, and Kerry likely to do a better job on the war in Iraq by 42.9 percent to 40.9 percent.
Kerry was viewed as stronger on health care by 49.8 percent to 28.3 percent, and viewed as better able to handle the economy by 50.9 percent to 35.8 percent. Kerry also edged Bush 43.8 percent to 39.1 percent on the question of which candidate would do a better job on taxes.
But on all five questions, between 12 percent and 20 percent of respondents said "neither" candidate was best prepared to handle the issue.
John Kennedy, a West Chester political science professor who helped conduct the poll, said the findings in the presidential contest are more typical of what would be expected in a Northeastern state than a border state like Delaware.
"The numbers show Delaware is becoming less of a bellwether," he said.
Delaware has had a reputation as a bellwether because its vote followed the national result from the 1950s through 1996. Four years ago, however, Al Gore carried Delaware on his way to losing to Bush.
But Jim Soles, a former University of Delaware political science professor and longtime observer of state politics, said the poll may tell a broader story.
"This is seems like a fair representation of Delaware," Soles said. "If Kerry hammers on the economy and health care, it might be" a bellwether.
Contact Patrick Jackson at 678-4274 or
pjackson@delawareonline.com.
2004 ELECTION POLL
PRESIDENT
45.2 % Kerry (D)
37.6 % Bush (R)
0.5 % Nader (I)
0.8 % Other
15.9 % Undecided
GOVERNOR
42.4 % Minner (D)
26.2 % Lee (R)
1.7 % Infante (I)
29.7 % Undecided
Results of Sept. 22-25 poll of 590 registered Delaware voters by the Center for Social and Economic Research at West Chester University. The telephone poll has a margin or error of +/- 3.9 percentage points, with larger margin for local races.
U.S. CONGRESS
61.3 % Castle (R)
14.8 % Donnelly (D)
0.5 % Other
23.4 % Undecided
NCCO. EXECUTIVE*
38.8 % Coons (D)
15.6 % Castagno (R)
1.1 % Other
44.5 % Undecided
*Margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.
