Which state enters the Eurozone next?

[Јas]

Most likely to be one of Estonia, Denmark or Iceland.

Estonia is on the most 'normal' path - currently looking at a 2011 joining date.

Denmark have no problems currency wise. I understand a referendum on euro membership is likely in the next year or two. I don't know how the referendum will play though.

Iceland have been told that EU membership is a precondition, as far as the Commission is concerned, for euro membership. Presuming this to be true, the length of accession depends almost entirely on whether Iceland can accept the Common Fisheries Policy and all that entails. That could drag things out. They could attempt a unilateral euro adoption, but I've not seen anything much to suggest such a move so far.

It's unlikely any of the other countries could join by 2011. Most should manage it by 2014-15.

[Јas]

Possibly the UK after.

What makes you think the UK is likely to adopt the euro any time soon?
Persoanally, if the UK joins the euro within the next decade I'd be fairly surprised.

[Јas]

I also think Italy will leave in the near future, perhaps 2010. Ireland will eventually (+10 years) leave it. Estonia and some other states will join.

And Ireland, why on earth should Ireland leave the EMU?

There are a small number economists who are speaking up on the idea that Ireland maybe should be considering this - though they are the same voices that questioned entering in the first place. There's no evidence to suggest it has significant mainstream support.

The statements tend to get almost as much play in certain elements of the British media as they do here.