NY-20 Special Election

[Franzl]

What exactly is or was Gillibrand's stance on the Death Penalty ?

Almost certainly in favor....but I'm not sure.

[Tender Branson]

What exactly is or was Gillibrand's stance on the Death Penalty ?

Almost certainly in favor....but I'm not sure.

It could explain why Murphy dropped among Independents during the last 2 weeks.

Or just high MoE in subgroups ...

[Iosif]

America needs more people like Scott Murphy in the US congress.

[Rowan]

Stupid ad. Just stupid. I swear the GOP loves losing elections. Complete morons.

[Edu]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400.  I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Sorry, but i couldn't resist bringing this quote up again, it cracks me up lol

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

When Rowan says things are bad for Republicans, they're bad...

[Ronnie]

So is it pretty much a pure tossup now?

[Franzl]

So is it pretty much a pure tossup now?

toss-up/slightly lean DEM, I'd say.

[Ronnie]

So is it pretty much a pure tossup now?

toss-up/slightly lean DEM, I'd say.

Eh, I wouldn't say so.  Don't forget that these kind of polls have a higher margin of error than normal (Murphy is not even at 50%) and turnout will be in favor of the GOP.

It's kind of premature to say that it's slight lean in any direction.  But yeah, Michael Steele is screwed if Tedisco loses.

[Rowan]

My prediction(as of now): Murphy by 2.

[Franzl]

I agree with Rowan's prediction.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Go Murphy!!  I wonder if we can then call his laws "Murphy's Law"?  [/cheesy]

[Keystone Phil]

I wonder if we can then call his laws "Murphy's Law"?  [/cheesy]

There are other Murphy's in the House, my friend. 

[Joe Biden 2020]

I wonder if we can then call his laws "Murphy's Law"?  [/cheesy]

There are other Murphy's in the House, my friend. 

The same question applies.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

So what did Tedisco do (or Murphy do) to make this race go haywire?

[Torie]

So what did Tedisco do (or Murphy do) to make this race go haywire?

I think Tedisco was just being himself - dull, inarticulate, and ham handed.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nate Silver says Steele is toast if the GOP loses this. And considering that Nate Silver is the single best political analyst of all time...

[CARLHAYDEN]

Nate Silver says Steele is toast if the GOP loses this. And considering that Nate Silver is the single best political analyst of all time...

First, this was Tedisco's to lose (not Steele's) and he may well lose it. 

Second, when Steele ran his out of control mouth about being Presidential material, he probably laid out his political coffin.

Third, inasmuch as this is a special election, and the registration favors the Republicans, Tedisco still might be elected (despite himself).

[Smash255]

So what did Tedisco do (or Murphy do) to make this race go haywire?

Tedisco went in with a built in advantage because of the GOP lean and his name recognition.  If he was able to keep this race about him and Murphy, the name recognition and GOP lean of the district would have likely been enough.  Murphy needed to turn this into more of an election about Obama Democrats vs National Republicans.  That is something he was able to do, and Tedisco and the RNC are basically playing right into Murphy's hands by making this more of a national race than a local one. 

The attacks by the RNC have backfired and basically painted Tedisco as being along the lines of the GOP Congress, say no to Obama and offer no alternatives other than the exact same thing we did under Bush.  That just won't work.

[Lunar]

Also, the GOP has suddenly become the anti-Wall Street party in this race, hilariously doing a 180 on their previous stances/image

[Lunar]

Tedisco's public campaign has been painful to watch, most notably his month-long ("I'm a slow reader") refusal to say he'd vote "no" on the stimulus.  I mean, the district only gave Obama 51% of the vote in a high-turnout affair?  It's ridiculous to presume Tedisco, a partisan conservative Republican, would seriously consider voting more liberally than Joseph Cao, Mike Castle, Mark Kirk, Frank LoBiondo, etc. while pissing off every single one of his endorsers and donors.

Let's look at the two options for Tedisco:
A) This election is going to be a referendum on the stimulus.  In which case, why would you refuse to take a position that is going to define the entire election?
B) This election is not going to be a referendum on the stimulus.  In which case, why not take the position everyone already knows you have?

While I'd still put my money on Tedisco (may change by Tuesday) if I was forced to choose with a gun to my head, it might also be noted that special elections tilt towards an electorate that includes:
1) Loyalists who feel it's their duty to vote in every election no matter what
2) People who actually like and feel a connection to the candidate they support
3) Voters who can be pressured to vote by a well-operated and oiled party machine

Guess which favors what. 

[Eraserhead]

Nate Silver says Steele is toast if the GOP loses this. And considering that Nate Silver is the single best political analyst of all time...

Probably, which is kind of amusing since Steele has very little control over the dynamics of a race like this. It will be used as an excuse to get rid of him for other reasons but it will be a pretty weak excuse imo. I can't root against another GOP bloodbath though!

[minionofmidas]

So what did Tedisco do (or Murphy do) to make this race go haywire?

I think Tedisco was just being himself - dull, inarticulate, and ham handed.

And he didn't know how to deal with a Republican Party that pretends the entire Republican electorate is a cross between southern Alabama's and southern Afghanistan's.

[Tender Branson]

Note: Conducted a few days before Siena's poll:

Dem's internal poll shows edge in N.Y. race

Bidding for New York's 20th district seat, Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco by two percentage points in a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee poll.

The poll, obtained by The Hill from a Democratic source, shows Murphy leading Tedisco 43 percent to 41 percent in the race for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's (D-N.Y.) former House seat.

The DCCC's poll was taken earlier this week, before the Siena College poll released Friday that showed Murphy leading Tedisco by four percentage points, 47 percent to 43 percent.

The Siena poll was the first to show Murphy leading Tedisco. Tedisco quickly responded, issuing a statement that said his campaign's polling shows him ahead of Murphy.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/dems-internal-polling-shows-edge-in-n.y.-race-2009-03-27.html

[Lunar]

win

http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2009/03/27/tedisco-disputes-new-poll/

Tedisco said his campaign's internal polling shows he continues to lead as next Tuesday's election approaches.

“Heading into Election Day, our campaign’s internal polling shows us continuing to lead, just as we have for this entire race," Tedisco said in a statement. "Today's Siena poll is simply another in a line of polls that show this race within the margin of error. In the end this race is coming down to voter intensity and turnout, and our internal polls show us with strong leads in both areas."

Notably, the margin of error in the Siena Poll was +/- 3.2 percentage points, less than a point under Murphy's lead in the poll.