The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Yank2133]

NC numbers are not bad giving the state of the economy.

[Yank2133]

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.

[Yank2133]

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.

Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.

Polling numbers, take Ohio for example. The President is underwater in Ohio, yet he still has a lead against Romney, Santorum etc. Why because the voters don't like the alternatives. Presidential elections are more about choices then referendum on the incumbent.

And about independents, Mitt is losing them rapidly to Obama if you look at the polls. At this point, Mitt has to hope for another economic downturn. If the election were held today, Obama would win by a comfortable margin even at a 45/46% approval rating. The electoral map and recent polling data are too much in his favor.

[Yank2133]

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.

Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.

Polling numbers, take Ohio for example. The President is underwater in Ohio, yet he still has a lead against Romney, Santorum etc. Why because the voters don't like the alternatives. Presidential elections are more about choices then referendum on the incumbent.

And about independents, Mitt is losing them rapidly to Obama if you look at the polls. At this point, Mitt has to hope for another economic downturn. If the election were held today, Obama would win by a comfortable margin even at a 45/46% approval rating. The electoral map and recent polling data are too much in his favor.

Yes and those who don't approve will go for the GOP nominee unless Obama is above 49%. 2/3 of voters break for the incumbent if his approval rating is above 50% and if it is below 50%, then 2/3 break for the challenger. It's a similar idea to having to choose if you want to live 4 more years with someone you're not happy with. This trend is shown in actual votes rather than polls.

According to your logic, Oregon would flip for Romney because Obama is below 49% there......which we know isn't going to happen.

[Yank2133]

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure. Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy? If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.

Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.

Polling numbers, take Ohio for example. The President is underwater in Ohio, yet he still has a lead against Romney, Santorum etc. Why because the voters don't like the alternatives. Presidential elections are more about choices then referendum on the incumbent.

And about independents, Mitt is losing them rapidly to Obama if you look at the polls. At this point, Mitt has to hope for another economic downturn. If the election were held today, Obama would win by a comfortable margin even at a 45/46% approval rating. The electoral map and recent polling data are too much in his favor.

Yes and those who don't approve will go for the GOP nominee unless Obama is above 49%. 2/3 of voters break for the incumbent if his approval rating is above 50% and if it is below 50%, then 2/3 break for the challenger. It's a similar idea to having to choose if you want to live 4 more years with someone you're not happy with. This trend is shown in actual votes rather than polls.

According to your logic, Oregon would flip for Romney because Obama is below 49% there......which we know isn't going to happen.

Again based on what? Look OR has been pretty close with the exception of 2008. It's February and I'm not ruling anyone out of many states until late October. In 2000 Bush could've won that state and was close again in 2004. Romeny is moderate enough to be competitive. Things may improve for Obama in particular in Oregon and so he'd win but OR is nowhere near a done deal at this point. Also, my logic is based on the trends of polling in presidential elections.

A GOP nominee hasn't carried Oregon since Reagan did it 84. PPP has Obama +12 in Oregon, it is laughable if you think it would a competitive state.  

Obama could be at 45% in November and he would still beat Romney by double digits in Oregon.

Your logic is based on historical trends, but not actually reality at the moment. Romney is a historically weak candidate whom's negatives are skyrocketing.  People may be displeased with Obama, but they aren't displeased enough to give the presidency over to Mitt Romney and current polling reflects that.

There is a reason why Obama polling against Romney has improved the past couple of weeks, the more they hear Mitt the less they like.

[Yank2133]

Right everything is going perfect for Obama and you shouldn't have anything to worry about. It sounds like your party is in great shape and the GOP is done forever. You're right on with that. Look at 2000 which was closer ago than 1984. I'm not betting on Romney winning Oregon but it should be competitive.

Things can change, but at the moment Obama would beat Romney by a comfortable margin....and yes compared to the GOP, we are in pretty decent shape.

I repeat, Oregon will not be competitive. The state hasn't been one by a GOP candidate in 28 years and has been trending more Democratic since 2004. Romney can go ahead and waste money there, but the state will be in Barack Obama's column in November.

[Yank2133]

http://weaselzippers.us/2011/04/28/poll-americans-disapproval-of-obamas-handling-of-economy-hits-fresh-high-57/

The longer he babbles about birth control the more women will turn against him on other issues such as the economy. As that goes on it will lead to actual votes in the fall. Obama just doesn't have it with the ladies anymore.

That poll is from April 2011.

You are really a troll, right?

Please describe for me in depth detail how you get that I'm a troll? Is it because I dared to say that Obama may struggle for votes that have traditionally been female? Is it because I don't stand by as a cheerleader for Obama? Is it because I don't walk in line with the liberal media?

You posted a poll from a year ago that is why everyone thinks your a troll. Public perception is consistently changing, a poll from a month ago is outdated......but to cite a poll from April 2011......seriously?

GOP hacks are getting desperate then.

[Yank2133]

Obama cracks 50.

Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 44%

Good news since he has a bad couple of weeks.

[Yank2133]

Gallup

Approve- 49%
Disapprove-45%

[Yank2133]

Gallup

Approve-52
Disapprove-43

Bill Clinton putting in work........

[Yank2133]

Gallup

Approval-50 (NC)
Disapprove-43(-1)

Election

Obama-50(+1)
Romney-44(NC)

Obamamentum continues.......

[Yank2133]

Gallup

Approval-51(+1)
Disapprove-42(-1)

Election

Obama-50(NC)
Romney-43(-1)

Obamamentum continues.

[Yank2133]

Gallup

Approval-54(+4)
Disapproval-42(-2)

Don't expect that to last after the debate.

[Yank2133]

Gallup

Approval-52(-2)
Disapproval-43(+1)

[Yank2133]

Yeah, it looks like Mitt has peaked.

[Yank2133]

Gallup

Approval-53(NC)
Disapproval-42(NC)