The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (user search)
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1206900 times)
LastVoter
seatown
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« on: February 29, 2012, 09:08:24 PM »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

I think Bush was around 47-50% around election time in 2004 and won by about 3 points. So on average Obama needs to be around 46-49% to win I would think. I think if there was a snap election now, with a month to campaign, Obama would barely win against Romney, by a few more points against Santorum and would destroy Gingrich and Paul. If he can more or less keep the numbers he has right now through election day, he should be able to win.

I think Bush was at 54% on election night as Clinton was in 1996.
http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/Documents/ExitPoll.pdf
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LastVoter
seatown
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Posts: 4,322
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« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2012, 02:52:18 AM »

a lot of delusional people in this thread. Hell would have to freeze over for Obama to lose polarized Oregon.
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