The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[President von Cat]

JJ, why do you always say "meh" to Gallup?

[President von Cat]

Alas, Vorlon, that is completely untrue.

Obama's ratings will rise on their own if the economy churns out a few decent jobs reports in August, September, October, and we stop having turbulent weeks on Wall Street. Q3 and Q4 are said to look stronger than the 1H of 2011, and any uptick in economic behavior is easily enough to move Obama back to the mid-to-upper 40s, which is exactly where he started the year and basically has been since late 2009.

It should surprise nobody that Obama's approval rating on Gallup hit 39% following his sub-par performance in debt ceiling negotiations and subsequent credit downgrade and financial market turmoil. This should be subsiding, and perhaps a decent August jobs report will help turn the corner.

Now, does that mean the president should just sit back and take it easy? Of course not. He has nothing to lose by pushing a jobs plan (or two, or several hundred!). But to say that Obama has to do something to make his approval ratings move just isn't true.

[President von Cat]

If Gaddafi goes, Obama is likely to get a mini-bounce of a point or so.

[President von Cat]

Americans like "feel good" stories, especially those about helping others overthrow despots. If Gaddafi's exit becomes front-page news, it'll be accompanied by a television blitz of people dancing in Misrata, Benghazi, Zlitan etc. All it takes is a camera crew catching just one group of rebel fighters waving the American flag around, and it'll get broadcast into every home via Nightly News. Even better, there's the possibility of MENA political analysts and opposition figures singing America's good graces on cable television across the country. It could very well create an ephemeral "feel good" moment, and you can bet that Obama will get some credit for it, as he should, even if it proves just as short-lived as the moment.

[President von Cat]

Yikes, that looks pretty bad. Even if Obama gained five points, he'd still be in the lower part of the mid-40s. And it took the death of a major terrorist to give Obama five point bounce. The endgame of the Libyan conflict didn't give the President much of a bounce at all. Isn't he pretty much stuck in the high 30s/low 40s from now on?

How frustrating for the Obama team, given how successful of a president he has been.

[President von Cat]

Well, today's horrible jobs report is probably going to increase worries of a double dip, which is going to keep him in the low 40s or high 30s for the foreseeable future.

[President von Cat]

It is going to be hard not obsess over his opinion polls over the next few days. It is hard to believe that he will manage to stay in the 40s with an economy headed back into recession.

[President von Cat]

JJ, I'm not trying to steal your thunder here:

Gallup, eh?

Approval: 43%, +1
Disapproval: 50%, u

Okay, this is starting to seem counter-intuitive. Economy creates no new jobs, stock market tanks yet disapproval declines and approval rises. Perhaps we are reverting back to where we were pre-debt ceiling crisis, as liberals "get over it" and move back to Obama? Or perhaps we're seeing a pro-recession sample of Tea Partiers who are loving that his chances of re-election are on the decline?

[President von Cat]

Right, but it seems downright WEIRD that Obama can somehow be in the mid 40s with the economy the way it is. Doesn't it?

[President von Cat]

Wow, 1,000 days! Time sure does go by fast.

Gallup:

Approve: 42% +2

Disapprove: 50% -2

Still seems to be fluctuating on his lows on Gallup. 

[President von Cat]

Wow, 1,000 days! Time sure does go by fast.

Gallup:

Approve: 42% +2

Disapprove: 50% -2

Still seems to be fluctuating on his lows on Gallup. 

I'm looking to see if Obama starts tracking consistently below 40% on Gallup.

I doubt it will happen. There are plenty of pro-recession Republicans around here who will push his approval ratings up should we double dip.

[President von Cat]

So, should we start checking to see if Obama's disapproval can stay below 50%?

[President von Cat]

Gallup:

Approve: 44%, +1
Disapprove: 47% -2

Perhaps some movement due to the end of Gaddafi, the end of the Iraq War and relatively decent nuts and bolts economic data? Big corporations had good earnings releases, jobless claims are below 400,000 and the DJI had a great close on Friday.

Lets wait and see how he is doing a week from now before we say he has turned a corner. Financial markets may get bludgeoned if Europe doesn't deliver this week, and that may set back Obama's approvals.

[President von Cat]

I'm not sold that it is getting worse anymore. Growth in Q3 was way, waaay better than anyone predicted, and undercut the doom and gloomers who predicted a recession in 2012. For there to be a recession in 2012, growth will have to collapse now (Q4) and also in Q1, or in Q1 and Q2. It could still happen I guess, in Q1, but I'm not seeing it for the current quarter.

It seems we are reverting back to the 2009-2010 narrative, that the economy is slowly improving and that the unemployment rate is dropping at an agonizingly slow rate. At the time of the 2010 midterm elections, the rate was at 10.x%; it will likely not be above 8.5% for election day 2012 if we continue to see growth rates of 2.5%-3% per quarter like we just had.

Things can change so quickly. A month and a half ago, people were screaming recession and the trend was deficit reduction. Now we are seeing better than expected nuts and bolts figures, and the conversation has shifted back to territory that favors Democrats: income inequality and a lack of economic security. Meanwhile, Obama's numbers are returning to their pre-debt crisis mid-40s levels and Mitt Romney is beginning to look less and less like a presidential contender. If I was the President, I'd feel much better about my chances than I would have on September 31. Lets just keep in perspective how transient a few good and bad weeks can be.

[President von Cat]

By doom and gloomers, was speaking more towards Nouriel Roubini than you, jmfcstabcdefg. But yeah, you're right - unemployment was down from its peak by election day 2010 - I stand corrected.

We still very well could have negative growth in Q1 2012, but Q4 should be somewhat decent, which makes it hard to see what will cause the trend to change. I feel better about the economy than I did a few months back.

[President von Cat]

I'm not really sure what is fueling Obama's uptick. Messaging on the jobs bill? Support for ending the Iraq war? Warm and fuzzy holiday goodyfeelings?

The economy sucks, yet Obama rises to 50%. Just seems counter intuitive.

[President von Cat]

So assuming that these polls are beginning to have more of a predictive value, where would we say we are at this point?

Obama is certainly off his summer 2011 lows, and the economy looks like it is going to create jobs at a better pace than it did last year as well. With jobless claims at 370,000, we are roughly at a point where job creation can be strong enough to drop the unemployment rate.

At the same time, Europe looks really unstable, and so economic collapse can never be completely ruled out.

I would say, given presidential approval in the high 40s, we're in for either a 2004 or a 2000, in which one party wins by a nose.

[President von Cat]

Gallup

Approve 47% +1
Disapprove 45% -2

[President von Cat]

Gallup

Approve 46% unchanged
Disapprove 47% +1

Guys when will May's poor job creation report tank Obama's approval ratings? Its been nearly a week, I'm getting a little impatient here.

[President von Cat]

Well this sure is interesting:

Less Than Half in U.S. See Friday's Jobs Report as Negative, according to Gallup.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/155084/Less-Half-Friday-Jobs-Report-Negative.aspx

Despite extensive news coverage of what was widely portrayed as a disappointing government jobs report last Friday, Americans are about as likely to describe it as "mixed" (40%) as to say it is "negative" (42%), with a small minority characterizing it as "positive" (9%). But Americans who view the report as negative are more likely to say it was somewhat negative rather than very negative.

[President von Cat]

Gallup:

Approve: 48%, +1
Disapprove: 45%, unchanged

[President von Cat]

This recession is fundamentally different from the 70s and 80s ones, because those were the results of  the cyclical business cycle. This was the result of a financial crisis, and financial crises almost always result in low growth recoveries.

[President von Cat]

Undoubtedly it is good news for the president if he is hitting 52% approval with less than two months to go until the election. His disapproval ratings, at around 46%-47%, seems to be roughly consistent with Mitt Romney's ceiling.

Just to compare with previous one termers, this close to their re-election:

President George HW Bush: 39% approve (September 10-14, 1992)
Jimmy Carter: 37% approve (September 11-14, 1980)

I know that we are still seeing Obama's approval bounce following the convention, but he is clearly on a totally different trajectory than the last two presidents who lost re-election.

[President von Cat]

Stop deflating Republican fantasies with factual evidence.

[President von Cat]

I guess we're still waiting for Americans to forget about Romney calling them entitled, irresponsible, useless leeches?