The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (user search)
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1085467 times)
krazen1211
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« on: May 03, 2011, 01:03:00 PM »

First non-tracking poll I've seen post-killing:

Washington Post/Pew Research gives him a 9 point bounce to 56%.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/osama-bin-laden-killing-gives-obama-quick-but-limited-ratings-boost/2011/05/03/AFhxjegF_story.html

His approval for handling the threat of terrorism is now a ridiculously high 69% but he is still being held back to some extent by his economic numbers.

I would have expected a bigger bounce but let's see what some of the other polls say. I imagine he'll at least break 60% in some.
Well, I predicted exactly 56%, so I trust those numbers. ;-)

Yep, 10 points sounds about right. I predicted 55% myself.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2011, 10:49:05 PM »

Bump? Zilch.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-05-03/obama-approval-numbers-after-bin-laden-kill/#

ECONOMY HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION?
BEFORE:      Right, 31%, Wrong, 56%
AFTER:         Right, 27%, Wrong 60%
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krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2011, 07:52:28 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2011, 07:59:54 AM by krazen1211 »

Well of course the rating on the economy is not going to show any difference!  Unless people were somehow thinking that killing Bin Laden would somehow create jobs.

Click the link and read the whole thing. He's got better ratings on terrorism and worse ratings on the economy. No surprise, really.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2011, 10:36:52 AM »

New Quinnipiac:

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 40%

Approval is +6% and disapproval is -8% from before the killing.

The poll shows a huge positive shift among men but not much of a change among women.

It does look like the bounce is going to be a lot smaller than I initially thought it would be... still kind of early to say for sure though.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1596&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0



Those are probably good numbers for him.

The Republican number probably doesn't matter as much as most of those will drop him quickly, but 49% amongst independents is a good enough number for him to win.

At 40% amongst independents any President will likely lose.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2011, 09:57:00 AM »

Obama still heavily underwater in Pennsylvania.

http://grassrootspa.com/blogcore/pdf/Toplines-Media-Statewide-June2011.pdf

President Obama’s job approval rating in Pennsylvania is a negative 48% to 41% (disapprove to approve), which reflects an even further decline in the percentage of those who approve of his job performance when compared with his 45% job approval score from our March Statewide Omnibus Poll.

When asked if they think President Obama deserves reelection, 43% say he has done his job well enough to deserve reelection, while 50% say it is time to give a new person a chance.



Of course he won with a very odd coalition. Kerry would have lost if he performed at Obama levels in southwest PA.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2011, 10:38:47 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2011, 10:43:59 AM by krazen1211 »

Obama still heavily underwater in Pennsylvania.

http://grassrootspa.com/blogcore/pdf/Toplines-Media-Statewide-June2011.pdf

President Obama’s job approval rating in Pennsylvania is a negative 48% to 41% (disapprove to approve), which reflects an even further decline in the percentage of those who approve of his job performance when compared with his 45% job approval score from our March Statewide Omnibus Poll.

When asked if they think President Obama deserves reelection, 43% say he has done his job well enough to deserve reelection, while 50% say it is time to give a new person a chance.



Of course he won with a very odd coalition. Kerry would have lost if he performed at Obama levels in southwest PA.

I don't know if I buy this. Didn't Pennsylvania vote against George W Bush both times?

Barely, yeah. But Kerry did much better in SW PA than Obama did. That was compensated for by Obama doing much better in SE PA than Kerry did. The problem apparently is that the latter is sliding back to the GOP while the former is not sliding back to the Democrats. At least not this Democrat.

Not the first poll either.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=134324.0
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krazen1211
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« Reply #6 on: June 09, 2011, 01:29:38 PM »

That would explain much. Aside from greater Pittsburgh, southwestern Pennsylvania is demographically much like West Virginia, a state that Barack Obama lost badly for a Democrat. He did extremely well in the suburban areas of Philadelphia in 2008, drawing away some traditional Republican voters who until then reliably voted with their bosses on such issues as taxes and regulation.

A Republican nominee can win this state if he can establish a message of hope based upon trust in corporate power and the (alleged) beneficence of elites, which was demonstrated in the election of Pat Toomey as Senator in 2010 -- Pat Toomey, former head of the Club for Growth, and about as pure a corporatist as there is.

Economic desperation can lead people to vote for a very flawed savior. A drowning man grasps at a viper.
   

The conclusion isn't supported by the facts. Toomey held a Congressional seat in the Lehigh Valley that Kerry won by a couple hundred votes long before today's economic desperation.

These people simply prefer a socially moderate Republican, or even a conservative who isn't a culture warrior, to a Democrat. Sestak actually won Philadelphia by more votes than Casey did in 2006 and did well enough in Philadelphia to win statewide; if he didn't get demolished elsewhere.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #7 on: June 10, 2011, 10:44:45 AM »

If Obama doesn't win PA, which is looking ever likely, I don't think he'll win re-election. Nice to see my boy, Mitt, pull level with him in the overall polls too (although still quite early).



If Pensylvania is swinging Republican, Obama could compensate elsewhere.  


That's a likely outcome I think. NC was R+1 or so in the 2010 congressional elections, statewide, and should still be more Republican than the nation as a whole in 2012.

A Republican will need to win about 67% of NC whites. McCain got 64%
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2011, 06:39:01 PM »

Are you better off than you were 3 years ago?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57507.html

Forty-four percent of Americans say they are worse off than they were when Obama took office, while 34 percent say they are better off, and 21 percent say they are doing about the same.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2011, 08:20:52 PM »

So roughly the same proportion of people who voted for John McCain are now claiming to be worse off under Obama?  Who'da thunk it?

That's quite simplistic. Plenty of wealth republican investors are doing fine since 2009 due to market growth, while the African American community is enduring massive unemployment.

No reason to believe that 44% lines up given the facts.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #10 on: June 23, 2011, 10:02:38 AM »

while the African American community is enduring massive unemployment.

Really? I'm surprised to hear that. Must be a very strange experience for them; quite a change when you consider how well they were doing before Obama won.

Quite a bit better than they are now, which of course was the question asked.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2011, 10:39:06 AM »

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/7/14

Kos: 44/52
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krazen1211
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« Reply #12 on: July 22, 2011, 01:19:20 PM »

CNN: 45/54.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/22/cnn-poll-drop-in-liberal-support-pushes-obama-approval-rating-down/
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krazen1211
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« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2011, 08:09:41 AM »

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/62190.html

He's lost ground according to the AP-GfK data, with white voters, women, liberals and younger voters, in surveys taken just after the debt-ceiling debate.



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/62190.html#ixzz1WQI40X1D
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krazen1211
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« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2011, 12:47:05 PM »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149351/Obama-Job-Approval-Sinks-New-Lows-Among-Whites-Hispanics.aspx

Obama Approval Sinks to New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics


He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).




33% among whites is McGovern territory, lol.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2011, 02:09:38 PM »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/149351/Obama-Job-Approval-Sinks-New-Lows-Among-Whites-Hispanics.aspx

Obama Approval Sinks to New Lows Among Whites, Hispanics


He also received term-low monthly job approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).




33% among whites is McGovern territory, lol.

Well it's a good thing for Republicans that the racial demographics in 2012 will be identical those in 1972.

How do you propose that any President can be elected with 33% of the white vote in 2012?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2011, 09:41:27 PM »

PPP

Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago
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krazen1211
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« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2011, 12:08:03 PM »

PPP

Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month.
8 hours ago

Do you have a link?

http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls

Electability argument on its head at least in one state: Perry fav with NC independents is 44/34, Romney's is 35/50

Romney favorability with North Carolina Republicans: 39/40. His negatives with party base really seem to be on the rise.



Perry should be a better candidate in North Carolina.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2011, 05:05:03 PM »

Obama under 50% in Illinois

http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/politics/illinois-obama-approval-rating-poll-romney-home-state-perry-cain-presidential-2012-reelection-20111003

Do you approve of the job President Obama is doing?

Approve: 49.81%
Disapprove: 46.23%
Neutral: 3.96%

If the election were held today and the candidates were Obama and Christie, for whom would you vote?

Obama: 52.69%
Christie: 33.89%
Unsure: 13.42%
Obama or Cain?

Obama: 52.85%
Cain: 30.36%
Unsure: 16.79%
Obama or Perry?

Obama: 52.35%
Perry: 30.20%
Unsure: 17.46%
Obama or Romney?

Obama: 50.26%
Romney: 34.79%
Unsure: 14.95%
 Downstate voters rate Obama job performance:

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 57%
Suburban ("collar") county voters rate Obama job performance:

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 55%



Good to see those deep negatives in the collar counties.
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krazen1211
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Posts: 7,375


« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2011, 10:02:54 AM »

Obama under 50% in Illinois

http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/politics/illinois-obama-approval-rating-poll-romney-home-state-perry-cain-presidential-2012-reelection-20111003

Do you approve of the job President Obama is doing?

Approve: 49.81%
Disapprove: 46.23%
Neutral: 3.96%

If the election were held today and the candidates were Obama and Christie, for whom would you vote?

Obama: 52.69%
Christie: 33.89%
Unsure: 13.42%
Obama or Cain?

Obama: 52.85%
Cain: 30.36%
Unsure: 16.79%
Obama or Perry?

Obama: 52.35%
Perry: 30.20%
Unsure: 17.46%
Obama or Romney?

Obama: 50.26%
Romney: 34.79%
Unsure: 14.95%
 Downstate voters rate Obama job performance:

Approve: 39%
Disapprove: 57%
Suburban ("collar") county voters rate Obama job performance:

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 55%



Good to see those deep negatives in the collar counties.

your point being what? Obama still wins the state under your poll.

The GOP has a much better chance of winning the non Chicago congressional districts if Obama is stinky there.
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