The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[King]

pbrower is in fantasyland.  A lot of Dems are.

Comparing Obama in 2012 to Reagan in 1984?

Reagan's "morning in America" campaign worked because the economy was growing.  I fhe had said it was morning in America and unemploymnet had been at 12%, people would have thought he had a screw loose.  Reagan won because he ran on his record.

What was Reagan's record in July 1981?  Was it the same as it was in November 1984?

I don't think so.

[King]

Pennsylvania (Susquehanna)

42% Approve
49% Disapprove

This statewide poll was conducted April 7-12 with 700 likely general election voters for Premium Access Members and general distribution purposes. The margin of error for a sample size of 700 is +/-3.7% at the 95% confidence level, but 6.1% for the sub sample of 254 Republicans and 4.9% for the sub sample of 400 Democrats (which includes an oversample).

http://www.scribd.com/doc/29914043/April-2010-Susquehanna-Research-Poll

I can't use it: pollster entirely for Republican and "conservative" interests.

Use me, pbrower.  Use me.  I'm not too conservative to satisfy your sexual fantasies, baby.

[King]

Sure, pbrower, ignore my advances. I'll play rough.

[King]

There actually are decent real journalists on Fox News... the prime-time headliners however, O'Reilly, Beck and Hannity all make a mockery of 'journalism"

Beck, for his part, does not claim to be a "journalist."

The audience doesn't realize this, though, and that's the most important piece.

[King]

Reagan: 42/48 (October 1982)

So guys, what did you think about the Mondale Administration?

That was more the Democrats fault for losing by nominating a bad candidate tied too much to Carter; it would be like the GOP nominating Dick Cheneya.  Mondale actually had a lead in the January Gallup polls.  Gary Hart might have beaten Reagan, extramarital affair aside (or at least made it a close race).

[King]

Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent. 

Crushing the protests wouldn't have been competent. Especially since we were cool with the one in Tunisia. That would not look good.

There are other solutions than supporting regime change and supporting the crushing of the protests.

Such as?

Nothing like a n00b's first encounter with SamSpade.

[King]

The more interesting polls will be "Obama vs. GOP opponent, who do you trust more to handle national security?"

Those won't be for many months and it will be interesting to see if this holds any effect.

[King]

So we have our mypalfish of the 2012 cycle? Lovely.

[King]

So, what did Obama do last week that would cause this supposed Approvalgeddon?  Did I miss something or is this statistical noise?

[King]

Might as well cancel the election.

4 POINT SWING IN ONE DAY!!! OBAMA MUST HAVE SAVED PUPPIES AND ASCENDED INTO HEAVEN!!!

[King]

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Zogby)
Obama approval: 42% deserve re-election: 36%
http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zogby.com%2Fnews%2F2011%2F07%2F12%2Fibope-zogby-poll-christie-ahead-obama-hypothetical-6-others-dead-heat-president%2F&h=zAQBFjro6

Holy crap. Zogby sucks but even still...that's bad.

With Zogby's 25% margin of error, that might be great.

[King]

Obama numbers go down.  Bad

Obama numbers go up.  Good

Remarkable analysis.  I never thought of it like that before.

[King]

Like I said, if you don't the numbers on Gallup, just wait a few days. 

Oh good.  I thought about going to the doctor after I couldn't the numbers, but I will take your advice and wait a few days.

[King]

Halftime in America bump.

Obama should drop Biden for Eastwood.

[King]

I don't think Gallup pushes people as hard to make a decision as the Rasmussen bot does.  Their numbers are probably pretty much the same, but more leaners are no opinion in Gallup.

[King]

Obama will probably look very week in the summer if gas prices matter this much. He might want to consider opening up reserves in the summer, but it'd be a dangerously overpolitical move.

[King]

45 percent is an all-time low?  Presidents are popular in Feb I guess.

[King]

45 percent is an all-time low?  Presidents are popular in Feb I guess.

Re-elected president, possibly excepting Truman.  GHWB was at 39%.  Ford was at 46%.  Carter was peaking at between 55-53%.  LBJ was at 58% in February, 1968, prior to dropping out.

Right now, Obama is below GWB at any point in the latter's first term.

39% = 300 EV landslide
46% = narrow loss
55% = 400 EV landslide
58% = primaried

I believe this was what they call in the stats world "no correlation exists."

[King]

No, but there is a "point of no return."  At this point, it appears to be in the mid-40's.

What makes it appear to be that?

[King]

No, but there is a "point of no return."  At this point, it appears to be in the mid-40's.

What makes it appear to be that?

Nobody has been reelected with scores below a certain point (in the mid 40's) on Gallup.

Considering there's only one President to ever be below Mid-40s in February in a Gallup poll (George H.W. Bush) and he was in a unique 3 man race for re-election, that's hardly a trend.

[King]

GOP didn't even have +5 when Bush was re-elected.

[King]

That's why I said for no reason. As far as I know, there was no huge cataclysmic event yesterday that would have seven percent of the country to change their mind on Obama. And yes, if Obama was tied with Romney on one day and then suddenly leading him by 7 the next day, without some big event, then I would say the poll is suspect as well.

Greece defaulted on restructured their debt a few days ago. Subsequently, the markets, and media, have shrugged off the largest dollar default ever.

And you're saying that 7% of swing vote Americans know this happened?

[King]

Interesting how Gallup and Rasmussen continue to be polar opposites.

[King]

The inverse showing between Rasmussen and Gallup continues:


Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  49%, +1.

Disapprove:  44%, u.

[King]

I am now referring to Gallup as Gallop from now on.