The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Dgov]

I really think all he has to do is stay above 45-46%.  His approvals are going to go up when he starts campaigning for reelection.  He's a very savvy politician and he's good representing himself on the campaign trail. 

I disagree, i don't think Obama's campaigning will boost his numbers much, if at all.  As the incumbent president, he has to run on his record/deliverables rather than his promises, which judging by his rather lackluster Oil leak speech, is not his strong suit.  "Hope and Change" doesn't work so well as a campaigning platform when you've been running things for the last 4 years.  To put it another way, if a president with supposedly the best message system ever can't convince a majority of the population that his policies are good now, what makes you think he'll be able to do it in a year and a half?

Also, i find it odd that so many people here think that Obama hasn't started seriously campaigning yet.  He's made more than one speech/public appearance a day by my last count, and it's becoming more and more appropriate to refer to his administration as "The Permanent Campaign."  What do you think Obama would do differently from what he's already doing that would make his numbers go up and why isn't he doing that now?

[Dgov]

One speech almost never makes or breaks a Presidency unless it is so blatant as Richard M. Nixon 's preposterous "Your President is not a crook"...which is about whrn I decided that he was a crook. President Obama has plenty of time in which to recover from a weak speech. Conditions practically tied his... tongue.

So define this Presidency if you so wish. If you call a tiger's tail a leg, then how many legs does a tiger have?

Four, Just because you call a tail a leg doesn't make it so.

1.  I wasn't suggesting that this one speech would break his presidency, but that his mediocre performance in it suggests his famed oratorical skills might not carry into more concrete topics.

2.  What I mean is that the president doesn't exactly have much room to expand on the campaign front.  He's already been doing it quite a bit, and certainly more than his predecessors.  I just don't think that there's going to be much change between how he acts now and how he acts in late October 2012.

[Dgov]

Wow! West Virginia used to be one of the most reliable Democratic states. As late as 1988 it was one of the few states to vote for Mike Dukakis

It's basically following the general trend of the states over the last 20 years to fall into more ideological baskets.  It's like how New Jersey used to be a relatively strong moderate Republican state--the strength of the state party to deliver in presidential elections has been eroded over the last few years

[Dgov]

one thing i've learned from watching Rass polls for the last year or so, is that you should always expect generally pretty wide fluctuations in the day-to-day numbers.  If a trend holds for a week or two, then you might be able to consider it to be statistically significant.

[Dgov]

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

[Dgov]

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

I also live in California, in a Staunchly Democratic area (between 85-90% Obama), and i can tell you that the Liberals are probably the most demoralized bunch I've ever seen.  In 2008 I had no less than 4 separate people knock on my door campaigning for Obama, and ever other car had an Obama bumper sticker on it.  Nowadays, the area feels politically dead, and some of my Liberal friends are honestly considering sitting this election out (though in a D + 23 district, it's not likely to matter).

This might be an isolated case of a group of people who fit in with the Socialist party more than the Democratic party being disappointed in Obama for not bringing about the glorious people's republic, but i don't think Obama will ever be able to recapture the sort of political momentum that won him the office in 2008.  And without that, there is always a chance of him suffering a blistering defeat in 2012.

[Dgov]

Do you live in the bay area? There are certainly a lot of demoralized left wingers here.

Yeah, West Bay, just outside San Fran.

[Dgov]

Gallup 45/48

Obama's approval among whites is 34%.

Where did you get the Crosstabs?  I've been looking for those for a while now.

[Dgov]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

Let's just say that Gallup is a pretty favorable poll for Obama in the sense that it polls a ton of minorities.  The white vote more than likely isn't 70% of the sample in Gallup.

I cannot wait to watch Pbrower scream racisim when Palin is running up to 60% of the white vote on election day in 2012.

Thx.  Though the more interesting bit I found was that he was at 48% among Hispanics last week, though their small sample size makes big fluctuations more likely (he's back up to 62% this week), and that the Black/White gap is now 60% (94-34)

Though judging from those numbers, Gallup's weighting totals are approximately 75% White, 12.5% Hispanic, and 12.5% Black (assuming no other demographic subgroups were included).  It might be a bit less white and Hispanic, and a bit more black, but this is approximately correct.

[Dgov]

Wow...I had no idea just how bad it's gotten...but the last 10 days, Obama's approval has sunk big-time. Down to 41% in some polls. Not long before he gets into George Bush 2007 territory.

Not yet.  George Bush got so low because he lost alot of Conservative support during his second term--There are enough lefties to keep him above 40% on just their support alone.

In other words, until he does something to majorly piss off the kind of Leftists that vote straight Democrat anyway, he's got a floor of about 40%.  Though admittedly, Gibbs's recent statement means he's standing dangerously close to that territory.

[Dgov]

Gallup is 42-50 today, so the Mosque-issue isn´t good for Obama.

Judging by the Crosstabs, it's mostly young people who dropped off on Him over the last week too--he went from 59% to 46%, despite increasing about 3% in the older than 50 Demographic.

Probably an unrepresentative drop, but still not the kind of numbers he wants to be seeing less than 3 months from an election.

[Dgov]

At first, I thought that was a national poll.

Below 50% in his home state...not good.

PPP did mention that they just readjusted their weighting factors for a revised expected turnout, among which Obama only won Illinois by like 4 points or something.

Same with Pennsylvania.  They say that they expected electorate in PA voted for McCain by a single point in 2008, which might be why Obama's down to 40% Approval there.

[Dgov]

The truth of the comic in my signature has become more and more obvious. Obama may have a JD from Harvard, but his Presidency has shown that he's a moron.

I agree, partially.  I don't think running further to the left would have helped him out in the electorate or boosted turnout particularly, but i think his attitude about his policies has boosted cynicism among former voters.  If you're going to run on "Hope and Change" then you had better hope to change the political and legislative process rather than individual policies.

[Dgov]

Just as a note, Obama's recent drop in approval seems to be coming mostly from the 18-34 demographic.

In Illinois, that group Approves of him by only 45-43, in PA it's 47-47, and even though they didn't poll Obama directly in Colorado, that group is Hickenlooper's worst, disapproving of him 39-45 and supports him in a 3-way race by only 10 points compared to his 25 point edge overall. (All 3 PPP)

Gallup has Obama down to 46% Among them last week too.  For the group that voted for Obama by such huge margins, this is a pretty big drop.

[Dgov]

Gallup just updated

41% approve (-1)
52% disapprove (+1)

Definitely not just statistical noise from ~46% anymore

Wow, this is what, the 4th straight day of increasing Disapproval?  Either the Mosque is really hurting Obama, or Gallup has registered a handful of bad samples in a row.

[Dgov]

SurveyUSA (August 16 - 600 state adults):

California: 50-46
Kansas: 38-56
Oregon: 44-52
Washington: 46-52

Some improper weighting.  Whites comprise over 50% of that sample in California, and are only about 40% of the population Statewide.  With those demographics breakdowns, weighted for Statewide numbers correctly, the numbers are 54-42.  Also, I think they have a bad sample of California Blacks, as 61-38 is way too low for them.

The Kansas one is actually 30-66 from what I can see here on the cross tabs, which is also probably below what he should be at.  Composition numbers are again kind of weird (33% of Kansas Adults are under the age of 35?), and they almost certainly got a bad sample of Hispanics, who in this poll approve of Obama 17-71.  A 54-point disapproval gap?

The Oregon poll looks alot better, although still far lower than i would expect for that state.  Hispanics approve of Obama by only a single point, 39-38 though, which raises some questions.

And the Washington Poll is the same as the Oregon one, with Hispanics disapproving of Obama by a rather large 18 points, 41-59.  He's also losing Metro Seattle, 45-53.

So, either Obama has lost Hispanics for the Democratic party (might just be Left-leaning ones disapproving on Immigration though) or these are a series of bad polls.

[Dgov]

You have been looking at the July crosstabs, when Obama was at 30-66 in Kansas.

The August crosstabs have not been released yet on their site.

Ah, My Mistake.

In Other news, Obama's up to 43-50 in Gallup, suggesting their recent trend was a bit of an aberration.  It's still highly likely to be his worst week so far though, with an average of about 42% Approval Likely.

[Dgov]

Gallup's weekly averages are up for the past week, showing 43-50 (From 44-48 last week).  It doesn't look good for him, to say the least.  The only categories he gets above 50% approval in are the under-30s (52%), Blacks (87%), Democrats (76%), Liberals (74%), the unmarried (52%), and some derivatives of the above (Liberal Democrats, etc.).  He's at 50% with Hispanics and Moderates.

The Biggest drops from a week ago are from pure independents (42 to 32), Blacks (93 to 87), the infrequent Churchgoers (45 to 39), and Baby Boomers (45 to 39).  The biggest increases were among under 30s (46 to 52), and Liberal Democrats (82 to 86)

[Dgov]

42-51 in Gallup, down from 45-50 yesterday.  Either a really bad Obama sample has just entered the system, a really good one has just left, or (most likely) both.

[Dgov]

57-43 for Obama in New Mexico via Rasmussen, which seems way too high for the state.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/new_mexico/election_2010_new_mexico_governor

[Dgov]

That's really weird.

Well, New Mexico is probably the only state in the US where opposing the Arizona immigration law would be politically beneficial for Obama, given that the state is about 45-45-10 White-Hispanic-Native, and the overwhelmingly proportion of those Hispanics are native born (90% or so), and that the state has had little to no problems with illegal immigration.

[Dgov]

Yeah, because most states are polling about how they voted.  How did I know you'd turn this into a solid poll?

Now, just level with me here; Is it exhausting to have to try SO hard to twist everything into a Democratic positive?  Can you really not just look at things the way they are?  OR are you actually delusional enough to believe that trash?  I mean come on, just give it up already!

Well, I'll spin it Rep to balance it out.  If this is an oversample of Obama supporters, than Martinez is leading by way more than 5 points (7 with leaners) in the governor's race.  I'd estimate about 5-6% bigger lead, to the point where this might be a lost cause for Democrats.

[Dgov]

Except numbers to go up next week, he's unveiling another economic recovery package.

I doubt. people don"t trust Obama anymore. It's the second time that Obama is strongly down after a speech.

It's the poor economic numbers that have come out that are hurting him, his speech isn't going to help him out so much. I can see his numbers start to rebound once he does his tour and announces this new "recovery package".

What makes you so sure that after his last "recovery package", voters are going to give him the benefit of the doubt?  I for one think that anything he says now is purely political in nature and will almost certainly not be directed at the midterms rather than actually creating a recovery.

[Dgov]

People aren't just going to arbitrarily hate Obama because he announces a recovery package. The GOP will, but normal voters are going to welcome it. People are pissed at him because he has been focusing on Health Care and the war and not paying much attention to the economy. His numbers were through the roof when the stimulus packages were signed. 

No, I mean that I don't think Voters are going to leap out of their seats saying "Oh Wow!  We don't think the first one worked, but this time I'm sure Obama knows what he's doing".  It won't help his approval rating to simply announce that he's going to start doing something on the economy; voters are going to bee more skeptical than that.

[Dgov]

New Jersey is 50-50, don't know the strong/weak approval breakdown:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/new_jersey/57_in_new_jersey_approve_of_governor_s_job_performance