The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (user search)
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1205807 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« on: August 10, 2011, 06:14:42 AM »

I have examined the most recent surveys on the Obama Job Peformance, and find them all questionable.

The Gallup survey of 1500 Adults from August 6 through 8, which has a 40% approval to 50% disapproval, has an unusually large “undecided” group of 10%.

The Rasmussen poll for the same dates of 1500 Likely Voters, which has a 45% approval to 55% disapproval, suffers from having too few (actually, none) in the “undecided” category.

The Opinion Research survey of 1008 Adults from August 5 through 7, has a 44% approval to a 54% disapproval, the most ‘reasonable’ (in my judgment) of them all.

The Marist survey of 807 Registered Voters from August 2 through 4 has 44% approval to 46% disapproval, and is doubly flawed. Not only does it have an unusually large “undecided” category (particularly for Registered voters), but, examining the composition of the group, it is weighted for Democrats and against Republicans.   If a more realistic weighting were used it would have a 41% job approval to a 51% job disapproval.

The PPP survey of 1002 Registered Voters for August 4 through 7, indicated a job approval higher than any of the other polls (47%) and a disapproval of only 50%.  While the “not sure” of 3% is quite reasonable, the survey is heavily tilted Democrat (as is to be expected).  If adjusted for realistic breakout, the approval would be 44% approval and 53% disapproval.

The job approval/disapproval average at Pollster.com is 51.5% disapprove to 43.6 approve.

The job approval/disapproval average at Real Clear Politics is 49.8% disapprove to 43.7% approve.
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CARLHAYDEN
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*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2011, 10:40:29 AM »

Under 40% for the first time in Gallup polling:

Approve: 39%(-3%)

Disapprove: 54%(+3%)



Whenever I see a tracking poll move 6% in one day my first reaction is always "blip"

That being said...

The distribution of Obama approval in the last 15 polls on the RCP average is:


45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45
44, 44, 44, 44, 44, 44, 44
42
39

When 15 consecutive polls from 12 different polling organizations show no better than 45%, well, the numbers are what they are.......

Even Democracy Corpse (D) showed a minus 5 net approval, 45/50 with a -15 intensity rating. (25% strongly approve versus 40% strongly disapprove) for Obama.

This same poll showed the GOP +6 on the Economy (To be fair, there is SOME good news in the DC poll if you're a Dem)

Not sure I quite believe 39%, but It's darn hard to make an argument Obama is any better than 44% or 45%

Obama is, give or take a point or so, where Bush was in the summer of 2004 at the height of the Abu Garab (sp?) prison mess - Perhaps the S&P downgrade is Obama's Abu Garab?

The Bush versus Obama polling is similar in other ways - both candidates had their base strick with them, both candidates retained higher personal favorability ratings that job approval ratings.

As of now, 2012 looks a lot like 2004 to me at the presidential level.

First, I believe that the Gallup methodology results is some rather erratic swings.  They gave his astronomical job performance ratings in early 2009, and now are giving him ratings lower than just about any other poll.

Second, I have found Democracy Corps to be generally pretty reasonable.  Unlike R2K (remember how I told you their numbers were suspect years ago?) or the new version R2L (PPP).

Third, what is most interesting is the intensity ratings, where Democracy Corps largely mirrors Rasmussen.  I can not understand why Gallup isn't using the Stapleometer (which they developed).
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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2011, 11:31:16 AM »

Under 40% for the first time in Gallup polling:

Approve: 39%(-3%)

Disapprove: 54%(+3%)



Whenever I see a tracking poll move 6% in one day my first reaction is always "blip"

That being said...

The distribution of Obama approval in the last 15 polls on the RCP average is:


45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45, 45
44, 44, 44, 44, 44, 44, 44
42
39

When 15 consecutive polls from 12 different polling organizations show no better than 45%, well, the numbers are what they are.......

Even Democracy Corpse (D) showed a minus 5 net approval, 45/50 with a -15 intensity rating. (25% strongly approve versus 40% strongly disapprove) for Obama.

This same poll showed the GOP +6 on the Economy (To be fair, there is SOME good news in the DC poll if you're a Dem)

Not sure I quite believe 39%, but It's darn hard to make an argument Obama is any better than 44% or 45%

Obama is, give or take a point or so, where Bush was in the summer of 2004 at the height of the Abu Garab (sp?) prison mess - Perhaps the S&P downgrade is Obama's Abu Garab?

The Bush versus Obama polling is similar in other ways - both candidates had their base strick with them, both candidates retained higher personal favorability ratings that job approval ratings.

As of now, 2012 looks a lot like 2004 to me at the presidential level.

First, I believe that the Gallup methodology results is some rather erratic swings.  They gave his astronomical job performance ratings in early 2009, and now are giving him ratings lower than just about any other poll.

When Gallup did the first Job Approval poll for Obama from January 21 through 23 of 2009, they had an absurd 68% approval to a 12% disapproval.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls

Second, I have found Democracy Corps to be generally pretty reasonable.  Unlike R2K (remember how I told you their numbers were suspect years ago?) or the new version R2L (PPP).

Third, what is most interesting is the intensity ratings, where Democracy Corps largely mirrors Rasmussen.  I can not understand why Gallup isn't using the Stapleometer (which they developed).

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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #3 on: August 15, 2011, 11:39:49 AM »

Unlike R2K (remember how I told you their numbers were suspect years ago?) or the new version R2L (PPP).

You won't give up, won't you ?

There´s no reason to believe that PPP fakes the results like R2000.

Take for example the Wisconsin SD 30 race, a race that was not polled by any other company before PPP. They found that the Democrat would win by 62-34, he won by 67-33. If we take into account the undecideds (4%), of which the Democrat gained another 3 points and the Republican 1, the projected PPP result would have been 65-35.

Now, if PPP made up numbers, why wouldn't they have said that the Democrat wins by 54-42, or by 56-41, or by 70-28 ?

PPP's continued accuracy over time shows that they actually went into the field in these districts and that they are not making up numbers out of the air. If they were really faking the numbers, they probably shouldn't be in the polling business but playing in the lottery, because their accurate predictions would win them most likely a jackpot.

Lets take a look at your assertions, would harm their reputation.

First, one can generally pretty easily estimate election results based on historical results (psephology), so a plausible PPP poll means basically nothing.  For a survey research firm to produce irrational numbers.

Second, there are two major methods of testing the plausibility of a survey research firms numbers: one is to look at their methodology, which includes (among other things) their sample composition, and two, to look at their results compared to other relibable survey research firms.

Now, on other posts with respect to PPP, I have examined both basis for the period since they becaume the pollster for Daily Kos (as you know).

PPP is interesting in that prior to becoming the PPP (and SIEU) pollster, they had a reputation for getting pretty good results from unusually small samples.

Since becoming the Daily Kos pollster, they have produced some really bizarre polls (see Colorado).

Now, as Vorlon can tell you, I was on to R2K long before Nate Silver,
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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #4 on: August 15, 2011, 08:49:09 PM »


I'll go out on a limb and declare Utah as "Likely Republican" in 2012

I have DC leaning to the Democrats.

Heck, I would stick my neck out and predict that Hawaii will probably support the Democrat party nominee for President in 2012 while Wyoming will probably support the Republican party nominee in the same year for the same office.
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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2011, 10:45:00 AM »

Heck, I would stick my neck out and predict that Hawaii will probably support the Democrat party nominee for President in 2012 while Wyoming will probably support the Republican party nominee in the same year for the same office.

Hawaii's going to specifically support a Thai party's candidate for an office that doesn't currently exist in Thailand? That is an unusual prediction. What's your reasoning?

Agreed on Wyoming.

So you are a sock puppet.
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