The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

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I prefer Rowan's maps.

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Romney has no positives, simply put.  He comes across as a liar; someone I wouldn't trust....much the same way John Kerry came across in 2004 with a used car salesman personality added in.  I think he might even be worse than Palin.  At least with her you know what you're getting and you know where she stands on most issues.  With Romney you don't know either.

Romney's positives:

• It's the economy, stupid. The recession will either be ongoing or just have ended, and Romney has amazing expertise in economic affairs.
• Presidentiability. Romney looks presidential. This is a fairly important factor - Obama would've likely won the general election anyway, but this is why he beat Hillary Clinton in the primary.
• Proven electability. Massachusetts was just as Democratic in 2002 as it is now, and Romney won. 2006 presidential polling showed Romney in single digits - he came in second overall. Romney is electable.

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It's nice to see a compilation of data here other than pbrower's. I was considering doing this myself, but I couldn't find Obama state-by-state approval rating online and was too lazy to go back through pages of thread.

In the future, SS, it'd be nice if your posts came with a map -- that would make them much easier to read.

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I've not really been paying attention, but since we're only about 2 years away from serious campaign season, I'll start paying attention. 

So who's really more trustworthy here? 

Rasmussen is showing Obama at -7

Gallup is showing him at +11

That's a huge difference, what are their methods if they are tracking this every day?  I'm inclined to believe Gallup more because they've been doing Presidential approval for almost a century now and I remember Rasmussen's numbers always seemingly to be skewed towards the GOP a bit. 

Gallup had been several points off in 2008 in the Democratic direction. They are also using an adult model right now, which is not accurate at all. Many adults are not even registered voters. Rasmussen polls people that are known to actually go to the polls.

No model is perfect. Rasmussen has a "likely voter" screen that can't predict which new voters will vote and which old voters will leave the electorate due to an encounter with the Grim Reaper. Rasmussen may have been right on the odd-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia, but the 2012 election will be different from those -- much as was the 2008 election different from those two odd-year gubernatorial elections.

"Adults" can of course include people who don't vote.  Note well, though, that some of the votes of November 2012 are still 15 years old. 

Similarly, the 2008 elections (which Rasmussen got right) were different from the 2004 elections (which Rasmussen also got right), because there were new voters in '08 and some old voters from '04 had an encounter with the Grim Reaper.

Every election has voters entering and leaving the electorate. Rasmussen has been getting elections right for the better part of the last decade.

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AL, SC, NM, NJ, & WI

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Took these numbers, translated them into an election map. Got this:

Republican 293
Democrat 245

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 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

Like Obama?

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Tender,

Hey man, you were one who claimed something a lot more sinister than dubious.  Yes, I think it was a mistake on SurveyUSA's part to push everyone to make a choice.  However, that critique is different from claiming SurveyUSA never conducted the polling (a la Strategic Vision/Research 2000) as you suggested.

As I've said I have a problem with right-wing news magazines that publish 100%-with-no-undecideds poll results and no crosstabs on their site.

But lets wait until SUSA and Rasmussen put out their own 2012 polls on their sites and now please let us adjourn the discussion obout it for a couple of months until we get them.

Over the next few months the pollsters are going to assess the approvals that incoming Senators and Governors get. We are going to see how popular some Hard Right politicians fare in such states as Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If they do badly, then President Obama stands to win a landslide.

Hint: there's not much of a honeymoon this time.

Define "hard right."

Hard Right -- Jim DeMint is Hard Right, and Dick Lugar isn't.

By that definition, Scott, Kasich, Corbett, and Walker aren't Hard Right.