The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Bo]

PPP(D) Alaska

Obama 37/56

Let's just say that Obama won't get a more favorable sample than what PPP(D) gave him.

Begich's approval was also about the same level which was unsuprising, I gotta say.

It's easy for Begich to have low approvals when a "Chicago librul" is in the White House.

[Bo]

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

[Bo]

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

[Bo]

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

Asking a few neighbours doesn't exactly tell you how the other few million people in the state will vote.

Well, LA County and the Bay Area metropolis are much more liberal than where I live, so if I don't see any Tea Party rallies around here, that would probably mean that most of the other large areas of the state would be even less receptive to Tea Partiers like Palin (in 2012, if she gets nominated).

[Bo]

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

Well they must be the stereotypical Californians who skate board and do drugs because according to you they're remembering things that aren't real. It might just take a worthless president like Obama to lose CA and WA in 2012.

None of my friends do drugs (or if they do, I don't know about it). What does skateboarding have to do with any of this? And the Great Recession did start under Bush Jr. That's a fact. And if John Kerry managed to win both CA and WA by 7+% in 2004 while losing nationwide by 3%, then I don't see Obama losing these two states unless a second Great Depression occurs.

[Bo]

Oh god I can't wait until you see the Obama landslide on Election Night 2012. Find a GOP candidate who can campaign as charismatically and is as likable as Barack Obama and get back to me.

I'm not saying Obama won't get re-elected, but don't expect some epic 49 state sweep like Reagan in 1984. It is pointless to make predictions until we see
1) who the GOP nominee is and to a lessor extent the minor parties nominees;
2) The Un-employment numbers going into fall 2012; and
3) The situation in Afghanistan by 2012.

That being said, I do feel pretty confident with the following prediction: Indiana will not vote Obama twice and the GOP will Keep Kentucky & Alaska. despite Pbrowers maps insisting those two states will be in play lol.

1) This is almost irrelevent by this point. The GOP's best hope is Mitch Daniels, but I still haven't seen any speeches by him, and I doubt he will even run.
2) This, this here is the killer. If Employment numbers are trending into double digits then it's going to get a bit contested.
3) He can still blame the war on Bush, as easy as that would be, but it would still work relatively well.

 Indiana will be in play, unless Daniels gets the nod. And I hardly expect a 1984, perhaps at the most a re-play of 1964 if someone exceptionally insane gets the nod. I think it'll go GOP unless we get Newt/Barbour/Palin as nominee. If N/B/P is the nominee, then you are looking at this:

N/B/P v. Obama

No way Obama wins TN, KY, and NE. Those states are just too conservative and anti-Obama for him to win there, regardless of who the GOP nominates. And high unemployment would probably hurt Obama in 2012 regardless of his opponent. I agree with you that Obama will win reelection, even though I'm no longer sure that he will win in a landslide. He could win with 290-330 EVs against someone competent like Mitch Daniels or John Thune.