The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[ConservativeIllini]

Obama at 53-41 in Delaware, per PPP

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_DE_1203.pdf

[ConservativeIllini]

Posted on Pollster.com, Obama Approval in Wisconsin 60/37 (done by UW)

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/wi_obama_doyle_uwisc_10291120.php

[ConservativeIllini]

As do I...just figured I'd post as I saw it.  Not sure if its worth updating the map with a clearly sketchy poll

[ConservativeIllini]

Why is Virginia blue on the map?

Didn't PPP have a poll that was around 51% disapproval for Obama recently?

I believe that PPP is a relatively reputable polling agency...

[ConservativeIllini]

Why is Virginia blue on the map?

Didn't PPP have a poll that was around 51% disapproval for Obama recently?

I believe that PPP is a relatively reputable polling agency...

That was back in November. Another pollster, SUSA, had a disapproval rating in the high fifties. That was the last brown shade for November/

The latest poll rules if nothing less than two weeks old is available. The latest one is from a couple days ago and it was 50-50. It's aquamarine as a tie at 50%, and not blue.

Thanks for the clarification!

[ConservativeIllini]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/missouri/toplines/toplines_2010_missouri_senate_december_15_2009

New Rasmussen poll on Missouri

Obama @ 47-53, pretty good numbers for him right now IMO

[ConservativeIllini]

New Quinnipiac poll from PA has Obama Job Approval at 49-45 there. 

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1407

[ConservativeIllini]

Did anyone notice the crosstabs in that PPP poll on North Carolina? 
47% D, 34% R is questionable, but the poll favors the president, so let it be. 

[ConservativeIllini]

Hey pbrower, I think that Zogby Florida poll should qualify as "suspect". If his approval is positive in Florida, it will be slightly positive, not by a 55\42 margin.

^^^ I agree with this.

[ConservativeIllini]

pbrower, are you seriously not going to change CO because you don't like that poll?

[ConservativeIllini]

I'm giving pbrower the benefit of the doubt, but he might have forgot to change it on the map, or changed the wrong item unintentionally.

Again, I'm relatively new here, so let's give him a little bit, and see if he changes it in response. 

[ConservativeIllini]

Great Job RB!

[ConservativeIllini]

Pbrower, why use letters for the months?  Just use numbers like normal people do when looking at the date.

January - 1
February - 2
March - 3
April - 4
May - 5
June - 6
July - 7
August - 8
September - 9
October - 10
November - 11
December - 12

That legislation is quite possibly the most significant legislation since the Civil Rights Act of 1964 or Medicare (take your pick), and I suspect that a huge legislative success for the President and his Party will change the public opinion of both.

 

I think it's fair that you believe that, but let me be the first to disagree.  Legislatively, this is a success, sure.  However, in what public opinion poll is this health reform bill popular?  A recent CNN Poll had the opposition at 61%, and I haven't seen any polls in the last few months showing over 50% favorability of this plan.  If you could direct me to a few, I will gladly eat crow, I just don't believe that there are many.

Given that the vast majority of the poor and uninsured, already are on record as approving of the President and this plan (because it will positively affect them and their financial state directly), it would take a majority of at least 55% to make a significant bump in the President's approval rating. Also, in my opinion, any bump will be temporary, because this legislation won't affect that many people, unless it is determined that people's health care plans will be taxed. 

[ConservativeIllini]

I'll be honest: I do like the coloring of Pbrower's map a little better than the new one we all cooked up. 

I like the lighter shading as opposed to the solid red, green, and pink in the new one. 

As long as pbrower continues (starts?) adding to it with the polls posted, it should be fine.  Also, I totally agree with nik, that we can just color the obvious states that aren't polled in their specific color.  They aren't polled for a reason: it's obvious which way they lean. 

[ConservativeIllini]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

His maps are not fundamentally different to Rowan's.

I just like the Yellow-Green distinction better but prefer Rowan's numbering for the dates of the polls instead of the letters.

Let them create their own maps and everybody is happy.

I think they mean that he mixes favorability polls

Really? Favorability polls are always higher for President Obama, because he is a likable guy, whether you agree or disagree with his policies (personally, I disagree).  If that's the case, then I'd be against using pbrower's map, because those numbers are always 5-6 points higher minimum.

[ConservativeIllini]

I'm pretty shocked he's netting a negative in New Hampshire, but I'll take it

[ConservativeIllini]

Ahhh good point pbrower, the Hodes vs. Ayotte will probably go down to the wire, and just depend on whether things are going well for team red or team blue.

That's another benefit of midterm elections, we'll get polls in other battlegrounds with senate elections such as Missouri, Ohio, Florida, and others.

[ConservativeIllini]

In Michigan Obama Approval Rating
55% Disapprove
44% Approve

Do you have a source?

Also, welcome to the forum

With numbers like that, it's probably a Rasmussen, Zogby or something.  I just have a hard time believing -11 in Michigan...

[ConservativeIllini]

In Michigan Obama Approval Rating
55% Disapprove
44% Approve

Do you have a source?

Also, welcome to the forum

With numbers like that, it's probably a Rasmussen, Zogby or something.  I just have a hard time believing -11 in Michigan...

EPIC-MRI - a local Michigan poling company out of Lansing - I find them to be pretty accurate for election polling.  Not sure about approval rating polls though.

Ah, alright, thanks for the reference.  I've personally never heard of that polling agency.

[ConservativeIllini]

In any event, Mason-Dixon shows his favorable rating in Nevada to be at 34/46.

http://www.lvrj.com/news/reid-hits-new-low-in-poll-81060702.html

^That's the poll he pulled those numbers from, though I normally don't agree with using favorables and approvals interchangeably.

[ConservativeIllini]

I guess that's good for us so we can wipe off a gray state on the map, but why is anyone polling Idaho right now? 

Must have some free time.

[ConservativeIllini]

That's far more sensible than my guess, thanks.  Didn't realize it's just an Idaho polling company.

[ConservativeIllini]

Not sure that it affects your map Rowan, but the Rassy results from Ohio show 46% approval and 54% disapproval, as opposed to the 50% mistakenly listed earlier.

[ConservativeIllini]

Ohio, Oregon, New Jersey, Washington:

Unlike Rowan Brandon, who distinguishes between "under 50%" and "over 50%" I go for "approval under disapproval" (shades of yellow to dark brown), a tie (white), and "approval greater than disapproval" (shades of green). It's strictly a matter of taste, and I can't say that one is more relevant than the other at this point.

If there is a real difference it may be that his suggests the idea that if the GOP has a really-strong candidate in the wings, Obama loses in places in which his approval rating is below 50%. Mine suggests that the GOP lacks someone capable of offering an alternative, and that many disgruntled conservatives will find the choice between an uninspiring right-winger and an effective incumbent cause them to not vote.    

46 % is probably not enough to win Ohio, considering that the gop candidate is good.

Do we already have a 2012 Republican candidate for president?

The GOP will return to the White House by winning states that nobody now thinks reasonable targets.     

Really?  I mean, I know the 2008 election didn't sort out like team red had hoped, but this premise seems false.  After checking out the census's expected results, it appears that the Repubs need to win back IN, NC, VA, FL, OH, in order to regain control of the White House... 3 of those (IN, NC, VA) are long Republican strongholds, FL went blue in a VERY STRONG Democratic year by just 2.5%, and OH went blue by 4%, less than the national average. 

You're nuts if you think the 2012 campaign will resemble the 2008 campaign, as Obama can't run on transformative messages of hope and change anymore, but will have to run on his record (which may include a successful economic recovery, that is to be seen). 

So what states must the GOP win that you do not consider reasonable targets for team red?  I'm not trying to sound condescending, just looking for debate!

[ConservativeIllini]

Nevada(PPP)

Approve 44%
Disapprove 52%

I have to question the unintentional bias in asking about President Obama approvals after mentioning the name of the toxic Harry Reid, who is sure to be voted out later this year.  It seems like this could drag down the president's approvals slightly (maybe it's just my skepticism, however).