The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

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Zogby Telephone

Approve 53%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1728

Much more realistic than their generally terrible internet polls.

"Both measures of job performance have improved over a Zogby Interactive survey of 4,470 likely voters nationwide conducted July 21-24. Then, 48% approved and 49% disapproved. In the same poll, on the four-point scale, 47% gave Obama excellent or good grades, and 53% chose fair or poor."



lol zogby is a joke.

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R2000 for dailykos

Obama:

fav: 55 % (-3)
unfav: 40 % (+2)

no opinion: 4 (+1)

Party id: 31 % dem, 25% ind, 22 % rep, 5% other (?) and 17 % non voters (very useful, the "non voters")

Congressional ballot:

Dem : 34% (-1)
Gop: 28% (-1)

not sure: 38 % (+2)
                       

Considering the horrific democratic biais, it's very bad for Obama...

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Rasmussen

Approve 47%(tied for lowest ever)
Disapprove 52%(tied for highest ever)

Strongly Approve 32%
Strongly Disapprove 42%(highest ever)

logical.

Rasmussen could not have the same numbers than gallup for longtime. Not sure than september will be better for Obama...

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Pew

Approve 52%
Disapprove 37%

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/539.pdf

Ipsos

Approve 56%
Disapprove 40%

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=mr090902-1tb1.pdf&id=4506

Party id for ipsos:

Dem: 47 %
Rep: 38 %
I: 15 %

No comment...

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Recent national polling:

ABC/WaPo: 56% Approve, 42% Disapprove
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/hp/ssi/wpc/postpoll_111609.html?hpid=topnews
CBS (adults):  53% Approve, 36% Disapprove
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/poll_obama_111709.pdf
CNN (adults):  55% Approve, 42% Disapprove
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/11/17/rel17d.pdf
FOX (RV):  46% Approve, 46% Disapprove
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/111909_ObamaPoll.pdf
PPP (RV):  49% Approve, 46% Disapprove
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_1119.pdf
Quinnipiac (RV):  48% Approve, 42% Disapprove
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1397

The problem for Obama is that the good numbers are given by bad pollsters.

Plus:

Gallup: 50-44 (the lowest)
Rasmussen: 46-52 (the lowest also)

IMO, Obama is actually  losing ground due to KSM trial.

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Gallup:

Approve - 49%
Disapprove - 44%

The answer to Rush Limbaugh...

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Arizona(Rasmussen)

Approve 40%
Disapprove 60%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/arizona/election_2010_arizona_governor_election

Bad, but nationwide-8, so not that bad I suppose.

-8 due to Mc Cain. Arizona is a swing state, in normal times.

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New Jersey (Quinnipiac)

51% Approve
42% Disapprove

From November 17 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,615 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1399

it's very bad for Obama and that confirms, if need, Rasmussen, gallup and fox polls.

The popularity of Obama was stable in September, october and in the first days of november but for one week, Obama is in free fall. Terrorist trial and health care are the causes for me.

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New Jersey (Quinnipiac)

51% Approve
42% Disapprove

From November 17 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,615 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1399

it's very bad for Obama and that confirms, if need, Rasmussen, gallup and fox polls.

The popularity of Obama was stable in September, october and in the first days of november but for one week, Obama is in free fall. Terrorist trial and health care are the causes for me.

Freefall? I can as easily interpret it as statistical noise. New Jersey? The current governor (the new one has yet to take office) was highly unpopular.

The Hard Right has been very loud in its denunciations of President Obama. Will the effects be permanent? Good question. It's had plenty of venom but practically no solutions that haven't been tried and found badly lacking. Some of those solutions have gotten us into the predicament that we are in.

On health care the Hard Right has nothing to offer but a system that rations health care by bank account; if you lack the money you just might die. Terrorism? We are finally going to put Khalid Sheikh Mohammed on trial in America with evidence and testimony that befits a country like the USA instead of some show trial. KSM will have no chance to use the trial to push his murderous ideology. When the Hard Right had command in America it was able to waterboard KSM for self-incriminating testimony that would surely violate the Constitution.

You can be sure that KSM will have no chance to use the federal courthouse as a forum for spreading his horrible ideology. David Lane, Timothy McVeigh, Richard Reid, and Ted Kaczynski got no chance  to so use the courtroom.

The only political hazard that I see from the trial is the potential for a judicial travesty. As a rule I do not predict the results of court cases. I can figure that the Department of Justice has done what it can to ensure that KSM will have no substantial case to appeal, including testimony acquired illegally as is the wont of the prior Administration.

it's not statistical noise when all polls say the same thing: barack in trouble.

And the problem is not to know if Obama and democrats are right, but it's to know what the american people thinks.

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daily kos / R 2000

Fav/unfav

53-40

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CNN/opinion research (crap poll)

approve: 48 % (-7 compared to mid november poll)
disapprove: 50 % (+8)

No information on the party id.

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Ohio (Rasmussen)

approve: 46 %
dis: 50 %

It's interesting to observe that Rasmussen is no more the firm with the lowest obama popularity:

for yesterday:

Ras: 48 %
Q: 46 %
Marist: 46 %
CNN: 48 %

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Civitas, isn't a very good polling company.. Just look at there 2008 polls... Just wait until the new PPP NC numbers come out.

Nevermind the fact that favorables and approval aren't the same thing. But apparently hacks don't care about things like that.

Civitas looks far more reliable than does SurveyUSA.

lol

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Battleground - likely voters

approv: 50 %
dis: 45 %

Big problem with this poll: party id: D: 43 % R: 37 % I: 20 %

ABC - adult

approv: 50 %
dis: 46 %

Party id: I: 37 % D: 32 % R: 26 %

For info, the former abc poll had republicans at 21 % and medias had been strong on this weak number.  Now, I guesse that medias will correct and will speak of "come back of the gop", ...


+ the 2 polls have the same difference between dem and rep (+6) and hence, the same result (50 %)

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Party id

NBC: D: 40 % R: 34 % I: 19 %

AP: D: 37 % R: 32 % I: 7 % dont know (?): 24 %

Pew: D: 32 % R: 25 % I: 38 %

In the NBC poll: perception of the tea party: positive: 41 % negative: 23 %

All polls say the same: health care plan is unpopular.

The AP poll is very strange: only dem +5 in the party id but job approval at 56 %... Probably the outlier.

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New Quinnipiac poll from PA has Obama Job Approval at 49-45 there. 

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1407

it matchs with a national approval at 48 % (PA was D +1,5 % in 2008, compared to the national result of Obama)

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SurveyUSA has their December numbers out (600 adults in each state, Dec. 11-13):

Alabama: 35% Approve, 61% Disapprove (-3, +2)
California: 55% Approve, 41% Disapprove (+2, +3)
Kansas: 36% Approve, 59% Disapprove (-2, +1)
Kentucky: 38% Approve, 58% Disapprove (nc, nc)
Missouri: 45% Approve, 52% Disapprove (+7, -6)
New York: 56% Approve, 40% Disapprove (+3, +1)
Oregon: 50% Approve, 47% Disapprove (+3, nc)
Virginia: 44% Approve, 54% Disapprove (+7, -6)
Washington: 50% Approve, 46% Disapprove (+2, -2)

Plus a Zogby poll from Florida:

55% Approve
42% Disapprove



http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.cfm?ID=1785

Rhode Island (Brown University)

54% Excellent/Good
44% Fair/Poor

The survey, conducted Dec. 4-6, 2009, is based on a sample of 442 registered voters in Rhode Island.

http://news.brown.edu/pressreleases/2009/12/survey

[img]https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=4;L;6&AK=0;Z;6&AZ=4;K;5&AR=4;L;7&CA=3;L;5&CO=3;L;5&CT=3;K;6&DE=3;L;5&DC=0;Z;8&FL=3;L;5&GA=4;I;6&HI=3;*;7&ID=4;Z;6&IL=3;L;6&IN=4;K;5&IA=3;K;4&KS=4;K;6&KY=4;L;6&LA=4;L;5&MD=3;K;6&MA=3;K;6&MI=4;L;5&MN=3;K;5&MS=0;Z;5&MO=4;L;5&MT=4;K;5&NV=4;L;5&NH=3;J;5&NJ=3;J;5&NM=3;J;5&NY=3;L;6&NC=3;L;4&ND=0;Z;6&OH=4;L;5&OK=4;Z;6&OR=3;L;5&PA=3;L;4&RI=3;L;5&SC=4;L;5&SD=4;L;5&TN=4;J;4&TX=4;I;6&

In susa mass polls, there are always one or 2 outliers. Everybody knows that approval of Obama was not in 30s. The real numbers are in.

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Does anyone want me to start making a map?

A few rules I would follow:

1. All polls must be approval, not favorability

2. No Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor polls

3. No internal polls

In theory, you should not mix adult, RV and LV voters polls but I know that it's impossible due to the weak number of polls. 

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It seems that only Americans can access ARG atm.

I confirm

ARG doesn't like foreigners... racist !

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Connecticut(Rasmussen)

Approve 56%
Disapprove 43%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/connecticut/toplines/toplines_election_2010_connecticut_senate_election_january_6_2010

Connecticut gets a little darker. The previous poll(PPP) had him at 54%.

PPP agrees with Rasmussen. A proof that ras is good.

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Ohio, Oregon, New Jersey, Washington:

46% approval is probably enough to win Ohio.

The recent Nevada poll averages out with another for no real change.

... New Hampshire begs for a fresh poll. No way can New Hampshire be as unsympathetic to Obama as is Idaho.


Unlike Rowan Brandon, who distinguishes between "under 50%" and "over 50%" I go for "approval under disapproval" (shades of yellow to dark brown), a tie (white), and "approval greater than disapproval" (shades of green). It's strictly a matter of taste, and I can't say that one is more relevant than the other at this point.

If there is a real difference it may be that his suggests the idea that if the GOP has a really-strong candidate in the wings, Obama loses in places in which his approval rating is below 50%. Mine suggests that the GOP lacks someone capable of offering an alternative, and that many disgruntled conservatives will find the choice between an uninspiring right-winger and an effective incumbent cause them to not vote.    

46 % is probably not enough to win Ohio, considering that the gop candidate is good.

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The today rasmussen polls are very bad for obama and democrats. Probably the massach. effect

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The today rasmussen polls are very bad for obama and democrats. Probably the massach. effect

Good question -- what do the Republicans have to offer? They have been long on carping and short on solutions. The solution that the Republicans usually offer (all for the poor, starving plutocrats and executives -- irony intended) doesn't have such appeal when it appears in real life. Nostalgia for Dubya?

President Obama may have gone as far as he can with a liberal agenda to undo as much of the Dubya-era disaster as possible, and when the economic royalists get their way in November, Obama may end up with the role that Bill Clinton got -- keeping the Republicans honest and preventing their most blatant give-aways to crony capitalists, degradations of civil liberties, and intellectual fraud from taking hold.

We shall see soon enough what sort of Senator the newest one is... and if he is another DeMint/Chambliss/Coburn/Imhofe clone or stooge of Mike McConnell, then things might not be so great for the Republicans in November. Driving a truck or hunting moose isn't enough to constitute political wisdom.

Republicans have solutions. You can disagree with but they exist: stop spend, low tax, waterboarding terrorists, moral values,... Brown has beaten coakley on issues and republicans will  do the same in november.

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Pretty hilarious how poor his approvals are and yet he still crushes Republicans head-to-head. I suppose America just hates everyone right now. Understandable, really.

no. Huckabee beats (unfortunatly) him by 1 and Romney is trailing by 2.

And for anti-Rasmussen people:

"In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Georgia, Rasmussen Reports polled on two races during the 2008 campaign. In the race for president, Rasmussen polling showed McCain defeating Obama 52% to 47%, and McCain won 52% to 47%. In the 2008 Georgia Senate race, Rasmussen polling showed Saxby Chambliss leading Jim Martin 50% to 46% in the general election. Chambliss won 50% to 47%.

In the 2006 governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Perdue beating Mark Taylor 57% to 32%. Perdue won 58% to 38%. In the 2004 presidential race, Rasmussen polling in Georgia showed George W. Bush defeating John Kerry by 15 points, 54% to 39%. Bush won by 17, 58% to 41%. In the 2004 Senate race, Rasmussen polling just before Election Day showed Johnny Isakson leading Denise Majette 54% to 42%. Isakson won 58% to 40%. "

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PPP

46/47

like Rasmussen...

The party id sample is D +1. Seem correct for me (at least for 2010 elections)