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  Talk Elections
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  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031458 times)
GLPman
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« on: May 30, 2009, 12:53:02 pm »

I love how liberals hate Reagan, but always want to compare themselves to him.

You hit the nail right on the head.
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GLPman
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Posts: 1,160
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2009, 12:42:09 pm »

At this point, I think Obama's approval is somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup, tilting a little bit to Gallup....say, around Obama+7

Obama +7 (52-45)  is very close to the result of Election  2008. That's about 370 EV with the regional polarization of voting patterns that we now have.



It's tough to make such a claim when there is no opponent to match up with Obama.
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GLPman
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Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2009, 03:59:49 pm »

Why I disagree with rounding up:
Your map makes it appear that at least 60% of Illinois residents approve of Obama, when less than 60% does. It is deceiving.
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GLPman
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Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2009, 11:45:36 am »

Utah checks in with the first December poll. That's what the "L" stands for:

 

The "S" continues to stand for "spurious" or "suspect". The Utah poll suggests that Obama is about where he was on Election Night, 2008... he can't be doing that badly in Missouri, Virginia, or even Kentucky. Kansas or Alabama? Maybe.

If Huckabee isn't running, the only conceivable way in which Obama could win Utah -- that Huckabee makes a big gaff about Mormonism -- is no longer possible.

It's unlikely that many polls were taken last week (Thanksgiving), so it may be a while before those "S" polls vanish. 

If you're going to add "S" to poll results that are suspect, you should probably go ahead and put an S right in the middle of North Carolina.
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GLPman
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #4 on: December 15, 2009, 08:20:58 pm »

At least he admits that he's biased.
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GLPman
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2009, 05:36:49 pm »


Change Colorado to yellow.
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GLPman
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Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2009, 09:07:53 pm »

Obama is at 60% in only one state(MD), so it is dark green. He is at 60% disapproval in some states, so they are dark red.



Looks great so far. I'm glad somebody finally did this the right way.
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GLPman
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2009, 11:42:05 pm »

Sorry pbrower, you've been replaced.
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GLPman
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #8 on: December 29, 2009, 05:10:33 pm »

This is a partial map of December polls only. Please not that I am far from complete, as I am "graying-out" anything before December. I am starting with December because the December map contains at four states (Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Utah) that rarely get polled.



Colorado and Florida are averages. Louisiana is excellent-good-fair-poor.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
51-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval). Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximun 180 days) before December 1, 2009.

No push polls or polls from a political party or special interest (ethnic advocacy, union, business advocacy [Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers, etc.; business journals are OK] gun-rights, pro-life or pro-choice, gay rights, religious group [Christian Science Monitor OK if it should appear with a poll], advocates of specific legislation) should be accepted). College polls are OK.

Colors from over 180 days may be maintained only if the poll is reasonable (corroboration in other states with similar political histories or the previous election) without ambiguity. Ambiguity causes it to go gray.

I am showing the three different districts in Nebraska; in 2008, NE-01 voted much like Texas; NE-02 voted much like Indiana; NE-03 voted much like Wyoming.  Those in Maine aren't much different and won't differ in any race except one in which Maine is really close -- and such would be a race that Barack Obama can only lose.

  


This seems unnecessary.
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GLPman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2010, 12:30:31 pm »


Keep up the good work
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GLPman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #10 on: January 08, 2010, 02:44:25 pm »
« Edited: January 08, 2010, 07:42:29 pm by GLPman »

Just an FYI for everyone, I'm not putting the ND one on my map because it measures favorability and not approval.

Good judgement. Favourability ≠ Approval
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GLPman
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2010, 10:17:38 am »

Louisiana updated.



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Wow. I'd say Obama is definitely in trouble.
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GLPman
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2010, 03:04:03 pm »

I can't wait to see the different shades of green and yellow that pbrower develops for his maps in the upcoming months.
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GLPman
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2010, 08:38:59 am »


(1) Insider Advantage may not be a huge name, but they are non-partisan
(2) That poll was conducted in conjunction with a television station
(3) I don't think you have any idea what a push poll even is
(4) You are ridiculous (in general) and most likely on a dangerous combination of cat drugs

He just doesn't want to change Georgia's color on that wonderful little map that he posts.
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GLPman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,160
United States


« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2011, 01:59:05 pm »

It's extremely surprising that Obama's approval hasn't taken more of a hit, especially considering that there were three days in a row where we didn't even see the man.
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