The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (user search)
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1086233 times)
muon2
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« on: May 30, 2010, 05:47:37 AM »

OH, SD, & WA


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Changed it to a map. NOTE: Didn't change PV numbers.

289-249



Your should shift it to 293-245 to account for EV changes before 2012.
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muon2
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« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2010, 09:50:34 AM »

GA


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

I noticed that you aren't using the Aug 12 Rasmussen for CO at 47% approval, but still have his Aug 3 result at 44%. Is that intentional or an oversight?
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muon2
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2010, 02:04:24 PM »

PPP Has a whole slew out, and they're not good for the Democrats:

Delaware: 46-48
Illinonis: 49-46
Florida: 39-55
Nevada: 44-52
Wisconsin: 45-50
New Hampshire: 44-52
Colorado: 44-50
Washington: 49-47
California: 54-39

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-liability-in-senate-battlegrounds.html

I don't think that they would all hold, especially FL. But if they do hold, I might want to find another country.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  156
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%  60
white                        too close to call  33
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   23
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  66
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   142  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......



If I read this right, the PPP blip would mark the first time that the sum of Obama's red states in your model is less than 270 EV. What controls the number when you include polls on the same day, such as FL yesterday?
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muon2
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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2012, 05:28:52 PM »

I'm one of Rasmussen's sample tonight. I'll be curious to see if it's a "good" or "bad" sample. Wink
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muon2
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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2012, 09:53:31 PM »

I'm one of Rasmussen's sample tonight. I'll be curious to see if it's a "good" or "bad" sample. Wink


How does one become part these "samples"?   Be it Gallup or Rassmussen.

They called me, so my number must have been in their random sample today.
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