The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Reaganfan]

I just remembered this all of a sudden...

Remember in 2005 when President Bush's approval ratings were lower state by state than his numbers nationally and it puzzled us all? Then, very quickly, the state numbers caught up and his approval sunk nationally? I have a feeling the same thing is about to happen to President Obama.

[Reaganfan]

Just wait for the vote on health care reform. Not until the bill is definitively passed in both Houses of Congress will we get to see how things turn out. The current trend looks like Obama as a one-term President with some right-wing nutcase becoming President with a stooge Congress in 2013, with America becoming something very different.

I agree with that, but what do you mean America "becoming something very different?"

[Reaganfan]

Health Care Bill Polls:

CBS: 37% support, 48% oppose.
Bloomberg: 39% support, 50% oppose.
CNN: 39% support, 59% oppose.

These three polls were all as of 3/21 or later.

[Reaganfan]

Based upon the 2010 projections and current approval ratings in the 40% range, if the election were held today, the Republican would win with about 338 electoral votes.

[Reaganfan]

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)

Interesting that Bush is the only reelected one with positive approval at this point and that the other two with positive approval didn't get reelected.

Reagan, Clinton, and Obama took big risks with the Presidency. Bush I had accomplished about everything that he wanted to accomplish as President within a year. I'm not sure that he really wanted the Soviet Union to collapse.

Dubya may have won Ohio "with a little help from his friends" in 2004, so we can't be completely sure that he won honestly.

Seriously...why is it so hard to accept that George W. Bush was elected then re-elected as President of the United States in the 2000s?

[Reaganfan]

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)

Interesting that Bush is the only reelected one with positive approval at this point and that the other two with positive approval didn't get reelected.

Reagan, Clinton, and Obama took big risks with the Presidency. Bush I had accomplished about everything that he wanted to accomplish as President within a year. I'm not sure that he really wanted the Soviet Union to collapse.

Dubya may have won Ohio "with a little help from his friends" in 2004, so we can't be completely sure that he won honestly.

Seriously...why is it so hard to accept that George W. Bush was elected then re-elected as President of the United States in the 2000s?

Dubya was elected -- maybe not honestly. As the 2000 and perhaps the 2004 Presidential elections prove, the States elect the President and the American people don't. Nothing guarantees the fairness of the States' processes of deciding who is elected. Conceivably the Governor could conduct a coin toss if something went fishy.

In 2004 people living in precincts likely to vote for Kerry often found huge delays in the vote due to machine shortages and GOP-sponsored challenges to the vote; those in precincts likely to vote for Dubya typically could vote quickly and efficiently. 

The Ohio election for President in 2004 was official -- but also fishy.

But you have to remember, Cuyahoga County is ALWAYS a mess. Every year there are scandals within the local government (all completely Democratic BTW) and the areas where there were delays and problems were in run-down areas which Kerry won anyways by large margins.

Bush could get 80% of the vote in "Bill Fishing Bait Shop" because the folks drive to the ballot box, vote, and go home. It's easier in more rural areas. Hell, it took me 3 minutes to vote in 2008 in Streetsboro, OH inside a little school. No lines, nothing.

[Reaganfan]

http://www.examiner.com/x-47431-Chicago-Conservative-Examiner~y2010m8d3-Obama-Approval-Rating-As-different-as-Black-and-White

A recent Gallup poll shows that President Barack Obama’s approval rating definitely follows race lines. While 88% of American Blacks rate the President well, only 38% of Whites do the same.

Approve of President Obama

Blacks: 88%
Whites: 38%

That's a 50% gap. Astounding.

[Reaganfan]

Wow...I had no idea just how bad it's gotten...but the last 10 days, Obama's approval has sunk big-time. Down to 41% in some polls. Not long before he gets into George Bush 2007 territory.

[Reaganfan]

We'll see if these new unemployment numbers send the President's approval rating lower or not in the coming days.

[Reaganfan]

His approval has dropped like a rock in a bathtub the last few days. Not just Rasmussen either. Has to be from his Libya address.

[Reaganfan]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147437/Obama-Approval-Rallies-Six-Points-Bin-Laden-Death.aspx

Among Republicans, Obama's approval has increased by 12; among independents, by 9; among Democrats, none at all.

Wow.

[Reaganfan]

Dubya, arguably the worst President that anyone not extremely old could know, got re-elected. If he could be re-elected despite lying to get into a war for profit that had begun to go badly, having little legislative achievement (more than Carter, which isn't saying much) and basically a jobless recovery from the high-tech crash of 2002, then think of what President Obama can do.   

The comparison is deeply flawed.

George Bush had a rather strong economy with unemployment at or under 5% in 2004, especially considering the Dot-Com bubble burst and 9/11. He was also extremely popular during his first term. Even in 2003, his approval rating was at time 20+ points higher than Barack Obama's ever was. (If Obama's so unstoppable in 2011 at 57%, why did liberals think Bush was so weak in 2003 at 70%?)

There is a big difference between 5% and under unemployment and 9% unemployment. Despite all of that, and a weak Democratic nominee, the election was close. If it's 9% unemployment, high gas prices, and Barack Obama vs. a formidable Republican, it's not in the bag at all.

[Reaganfan]

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL (Zogby)
Obama approval: 42% deserve re-election: 36%
http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zogby.com%2Fnews%2F2011%2F07%2F12%2Fibope-zogby-poll-christie-ahead-obama-hypothetical-6-others-dead-heat-president%2F&h=zAQBFjro6

Holy crap. Zogby sucks but even still...that's bad.

[Reaganfan]

The only difference between the two is that things are not looking up for Obama. In fact, there's a chance things will get worse. He has the luxury of the GOP running a bunch of crazies that he could beat with a 40% approval rating on election day.

No President gets reelected with a 40% approval rating. 

Prove it.

Here:

2004 Bush 48% Approval Won Reelection
1996 Clinton 54% Approval Won Reelection
1992 Bush 34% Approval Lost Reelection
1984 Reagan 58% Approval Won Reelection
1980 Carter 37% Approval Lost Reelection
1976 Ford 45% Approval Lost Reelection
1972 Nixon 56% Approval Won Reelection
1964 Johnson 74% Approval Won Reelection
1956 Eisenhower 68% Approval Won Reelection
1948 Truman stopped polling after July 1948

Looking at Bush and Ford, looks like 46-47% is the limit.