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  Talk Elections
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1040557 times)
Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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Posts: 24,934
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Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

« on: October 22, 2011, 04:14:58 pm »

Just for reference, when did President Reagan's approval ratings start increasing enough to ensure his reelection?
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,934
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.77, S: 3.48

« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2011, 04:34:21 pm »

Just for reference, when did President Reagan's approval ratings start increasing enough to ensure his reelection?

On Gallup, an important qualifier, RWR hit is low of 35% in late January 1983.  By this point in 1983, RWR was at 49%, so he had hit his low and recovered a lot.

GHWB, by contrast, was at 66% at this point 1991, but he had had a steep decline from 89% in March (not unexpectedly).

BHO, on the same poll, hit his low of 40% in October of this year and is at 41% in late October.

Note that I am using this chart for historic comparisons.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

I basically am looking for the point where the incumbent hits the low point and starts improving.  My analogy is from WW I, "von Kluck's Turn."  It was the point where the situation began to get a bit better for the Allies.  Obama, may have hit that point.

IMHO, Obama better start improving quick with the Republican primaries around the corner and the general election only 12 1/2 months away.  If Reagan started improving some 9-10 months before this point in 1983, and Obama has only "improved" 1 point, he'd better get busy or he could be a gonner.
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