The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[BigSkyBob]

Hmmm... He's back down to -7 to -9 territory now.  I wonder what caused the late October-early November bump when it looked like he was moving back to 50/50 approvals?  It doesn't seem obvious at all.

The news out of Europe, and the stock market, have shown some correlation with Obama approval numbers.

We'll see if this is the case after today's massive rally over the next couple of days.

I think Nov unemployment comes out Friday.  If it is positive, relatively speaking, it will be difficult to distinguish the two.  Jobless claims below 400,000 for a month normally means at least low six figure job growth.

That's initial claims per week.

It was above 400,000 today.

Right, but 400,000 is roughly the "people sense improvement" level for that variable.  It did rise again, but it has averaged below 400,000 over several weeks.  The last time that happened was in Jan and Feb when we had roughly 200K job growth for the month.

I thought the over/under number was about 375,000.

400,000 points to 9.1% unemployment.

[Skill and Chance]

Well we just had a jobs report that looks Reagan 1984 esque on the surface.  In reality, of course it's not that great, but we will have to see which number matters more psychologically. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 55%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  42%, u.

Disapprove:  50%, u.

[Lief 🐋]

hahahah, Huntsman's ads are great.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/12/02/huntsman_hits_romney.html

[CJK]

Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

[Skill and Chance]

Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

Truman was popular in the fall of 47?!  When did he start cratering to fall into the 30's by the summer of 48?

[pbrower2a]

Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

Truman was popular in the fall of 47?!  When did he start cratering to fall into the 30's by the summer of 48?

The Korean War. I'm going to guess that as the front line sagged southward so did President Truman's approval rating. The war also got increasingly unpopular as it dragged on.

[Away, haul away, we'll haul away, Joe!]

Obama Average Approval Rating November 2011 (Gallup)

43% Approve

49% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 58/37 (November 1939)

Truman: 54/33 (November 1947) AND 23/61 (November 1951)

Eisenhower: 78/13 (November 1955)

Kennedy: 58/30 (November 1963)

Johnson: 42/46 (November 1967)

Nixon: 49/37 (November 1971)

Ford: 43/45 (November 1975)

Carter: 35/52 (November 1979)

Reagan: 53/37 (November 1983)

Bush I: 55/37 (November 1991)

Clinton: 52/41 (November 1995)

Bush II: 52/45 (November 2003)

Truman was popular in the fall of 47?!  When did he start cratering to fall into the 30's by the summer of 48?

The Korean War. I'm going to guess that as the front line sagged southward so did President Truman's approval rating. The war also got increasingly unpopular as it dragged on.

Goldmined.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, +2.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  41%, -1.

Disapprove:  51%, +1.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -3.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  44%, +3.

Disapprove:  49%, -2.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 20%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  43%, -1.

Disapprove:  49%, u.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  41%, -2.

Disapprove:  51%, +2.

If consistent, it is getting close to that point of no return.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  41%, -2.

Disapprove:  51%, +2.

If consistent, it is getting close to that point of no return.

But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

[memphis]

A bump is coming. Get ready for Happy New Year. War is over.

[The Gun Lobby Needs A Vending Machine]

A bump is coming. Get ready for Happy New Year. War is over.

If you want it.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

[J. J.]

But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

There is basically a point on Gallup where an incumbent president's numbers cannot recover.  It is about 40% or lower in the first year, on the weekly numbers.  Obama is not there.

[memphis]

But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

There is basically a point on Gallup where an incumbent president's numbers cannot recover.  It is about 40% or lower in the first year, on the weekly numbers.  Obama is not there.

Clinton was below 40% in June of '93.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx
The first year doesn't mean much. That's why it's the time for bold action. The Presidency is a ticking clock and approval gets more important every minute.

[J. J.]

Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  41%, u.

Disapprove:  51%, u.

If consistent, it is getting close to that point of no return.

[J. J.]

But with Gallup - nothing is consistent

There is basically a point on Gallup where an incumbent president's numbers cannot recover.  It is about 40% or lower in the first year, on the weekly numbers.  Obama is not there.

Clinton was below 40% in June of '93.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx
The first year doesn't mean much. That's why it's the time for bold action. The Presidency is a ticking clock and approval gets more important every minute.

June of 1993 was not December of 1995.  Reagan was actually in the 30's in late 1982 early 1983.  He was around 50% at this point.