The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Approve: 39, u

Disapprove:  52, -1

I kind of think it is a bad sample.  We should know by Sunday.

Where's the "meh"? 

I forgot, but since I said it was a bad sample ..... 

Gallup only serves one purpose, historical comparisons.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +2.

One thing to note is that Obama has improved slightly on "strongly approved" in the last week.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  39%, u.

Disapprove:  53%, +1.

Either a bad sample size, or Obama is back in the trough.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 55%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

I'll be unavailable after mid week, if someone wants to do this.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  40%, +1.

Disapprove:  53%, +1.

Well, he's not slipping.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

I'll be unavailable after mid week, if someone wants to do this.

[pbrower2a]

Magellan (R), PA -- 44/47 approval, but the President has huge margins awaiting him over both Perry and Romney.  Clearly up from a recent nadir.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Magellan-Pennsylvania-2012-General-Election-Survey-Release-0919111.pdf

WA, Strategies 360 (new)

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I am guessing that that is a tie.

CT, Quinnipiac, 48-48, but President Obama trounces both Perry and Romney

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1646

Again, this is at a nadir, but Republicans seem not to be taking effective advantage of the low approval rating of the President.







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 56
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    74
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 95
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 83
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 54
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    92
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 101
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but one to whom he loses 37
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  41
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  35  

[Tender Branson]

Nevada (Public Opinion Strategies):

42% Approve
55% Disapprove

The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted Sept. 14-15 by Public Opinion Strategies. The Retail Association of Nevada, a conservative business and lobbying group active in Carson City, has commissioned five polls, approximately every six months. The poll has a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011/sep/20/poll-nevada-voters-prefer-higher-taxes-spending-cu/

[Tender Branson]

PPP/DailyKos/SEIU weekly poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

Generally speaking if there was an election today would you vote to reelect Barack Obama, or would you vote for his Republican opponent?

45% Obama
46% Republican

Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not at all excited about voting in the 2012 elections?

50% Very excited (54% D, 53% R, 40% I)
27% Somewhat excited (26% D, 27% R, 26% I)
23% Not at all excited (20% D, 20% R, 33% I)

Do you support or oppose requiring girls entering the 6th grade to be vaccinated against the human papilloma virus, also known as HPV?

22% Support (27% D, 17% R, 21% I)
57% Oppose (51% D, 64% R, 56% I)

...

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, September 15, 2011 - September 18, 2011.

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/9/15

[Tender Branson]

New York (Quinnipiac)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

50-45

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as Governor?

66-17

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?

59-31

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?

52-23

...

From September 13 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,016 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1647

[Tender Branson]

WA, Strategies 360 (new)

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I am guessing that that is a tie.

It's actually 49% approve, 48% disapprove - so you can colour it like Oregon.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/files/2011/09/11-003-Washington-State-Poll-Crosstabs.pdf

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.

I'll be unavailable after today.  Somebody else please get these numbers.

[Tender Branson]

South Carolina (Winthrop University):

40% Approve
51% Disapprove

The results of the latest Winthrop Poll taken between September 11-18, 2011 are in. The poll interviewed 1552 registered voters from South Carolina. Results which use all respondents have a margin of error of +/- 2.49% at the 95% confidence level.

http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804&ekmensel=fee512e3_566_0_9804_3

[pbrower2a]

New York (Quinnipiac)


Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

50-45

...

From September 13 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,016 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1647

Unambiguous improvement from last time.

South Carolina (Winthrop University):

40% Approve
51% Disapprove

The results of the latest Winthrop Poll taken between September 11-18, 2011 are in. The poll interviewed 1552 registered voters from South Carolina. Results which use all respondents have a margin of error of +/- 2.49% at the 95% confidence level.

http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804&ekmensel=fee512e3_566_0_9804_3

Simple update; otherwise no change. It's remarkable that 29% of Republican leaners and firm Republicans believe that the President is a Muslim, and that 36% of such people believe that the President was "definitely" or "probably" born in another country. 

Nevada (Public Opinion Strategies):

42% Approve
55% Disapprove

The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted Sept. 14-15 by Public Opinion Strategies. The Retail Association of Nevada, a conservative business and lobbying group active in Carson City, has commissioned five polls, approximately every six months. The poll has a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011/sep/20/poll-nevada-voters-prefer-higher-taxes-spending-cu/

NOT USABLE -- commissioned by a trade association (retailers).




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 56
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    103
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 66
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 83
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 54
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    121
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but one to whom he loses 37
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  41
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  35  

[Tender Branson]

Texas - PPP:

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 40%
Disapprove...................................................... 55%

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Perry’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_09201118.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Texas - PPP:

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 40%
Disapprove...................................................... 55%

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Rick Perry’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_09201118.pdf

Significantly this sample suggests an 8% split between McCain and Obama supporters, which is less than what happened in 2012.  President Obama loses to both Perry and Romney by single digits  and actually defeats (barely) Bachmann and Gingrich.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 56
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    103
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 66
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 83
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 92
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    121
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but one to whom he loses 37
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  41
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  35  

[pbrower2a]

President Obama will not do well in the Ozarks and Appalachians.

ARKANSAS

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Barack Obama is doing?

31.5%     Approve
63.5%     Disapprove
5%          Don't know

http://www.talkbusiness.net/article/ARKANSANS-RATE-OBAMA-JOB-PERFORMANCE-2-TO-1-NEGATIVE/2503/

Polling is conducted by one of the most right-wing colleges in America... but even given much leeway, President Obama has to be doing worse in Arkansas than almost anywhere else.

PPP, West Virginia:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/09/obama-down-12-to-romney-11-to-perry-in-west-virginia.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 56
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    103
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 66
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 83
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 15
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 92
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   32




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    121
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but one to whom he loses 37
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  41
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  42  

[Smid]

Do you support or oppose requiring girls entering the 6th grade to be vaccinated against the human papilloma virus, also known as HPV?

22% Support (27% D, 17% R, 21% I)
57% Oppose (51% D, 64% R, 56% I)

I am astonished the opposition figure is so high, even among Democrats and Independents.

[sentinel]

Do you support or oppose requiring girls entering the 6th grade to be vaccinated against the human papilloma virus, also known as HPV?

22% Support (27% D, 17% R, 21% I)
57% Oppose (51% D, 64% R, 56% I)

I am astonished the opposition figure is so high, even among Democrats and Independents.

I think if you changed the question a little you would see the figures flip.

[Penelope]

Do you support or oppose requiring girls entering the 6th grade to be vaccinated against the human papilloma virus, also known as HPV?

22% Support (27% D, 17% R, 21% I)
57% Oppose (51% D, 64% R, 56% I)

I am astonished the opposition figure is so high, even among Democrats and Independents.

I think if you changed the question a little you would see the figures flip.

Indeed. The implication of the question is mandatory, no opt-outs. Even I would disapprove.

[Smid]

Do you support or oppose requiring girls entering the 6th grade to be vaccinated against the human papilloma virus, also known as HPV?

22% Support (27% D, 17% R, 21% I)
57% Oppose (51% D, 64% R, 56% I)

I am astonished the opposition figure is so high, even among Democrats and Independents.

I think if you changed the question a little you would see the figures flip.

Indeed. The implication of the question is mandatory, no opt-outs. Even I would disapprove.

Well that's a bit more of a reasonable explanation of the figures, then, I guess. I certainly hope that a re-wording would result in an entirely different set of figures.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Do you support a vaccination program to aid in a reduction of the risk of cervical cancer?

[Penelope]

Do you support a vaccination program to aid in a reduction of the risk of cervical cancer?

[Tender Branson]

POS/Crossroads GPS (R):

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

Public Opinion Strategies completed a national survey on September 17-19, 2011 among 800
likely voters, including 120 who have cell phones only. Crossroads GPS bought some questions
on the survey, which has a margin of error of +3.46% in 95 out of 100 cases.

http://pos.org/documents/crossroads_gps_sept_2011_memo.pdf

Rasmussen is still 46-52 today, while Gallup is 42-49.

[The Vorlon]

POS/Crossroads GPS (R):

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

Public Opinion Strategies completed a national survey on September 17-19, 2011 among 800
likely voters, including 120 who have cell phones only. Crossroads GPS bought some questions
on the survey, which has a margin of error of +3.46% in 95 out of 100 cases.

http://pos.org/documents/crossroads_gps_sept_2011_memo.pdf

Rasmussen is still 46-52 today, while Gallup is 42-49.

POS is a very good pollster, arguably the very best.  Most know them as 50% of the WSJ/NBC poll they do in conjunction the Peter Hart (D) of Hart Garin Yang.

POS is just about the only firm that was in the game in the Nevada Senate race last year showing Reid with a 5% lead.