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January 24, 2021, 08:21:55 AM
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2012 Elections
The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (Read 1055991 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,065
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8850 on:
September 13, 2011, 07:56:50 AM »
PPP:
43% Approve
53% Disapprove
Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, September 8, 2011 - September 11, 2011.
http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/9/8
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8851 on:
September 13, 2011, 08:34:39 AM »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 45, +1.
Disapprove 54%, -1.
"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.
Possibly some movement toward Obama, again. Either that or statistical noise.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
Posts: 4,543
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8852 on:
September 13, 2011, 09:01:26 PM »
The PPP and Rasmussen Polls are very close.
Something's wrong.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,065
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8853 on:
September 14, 2011, 05:56:33 AM »
California (Field):
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,065
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8854 on:
September 14, 2011, 07:24:04 AM »
Bloomberg/Selzer:
45% Approve
49% Disapprove
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rcBTdobXyUWg
CNN/ORC:
43% Approve
55% Disapprove
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/13/cnn-poll-president-gets-no-bounce-from-speech-but-disapproval-rating-peaks
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8855 on:
September 14, 2011, 07:25:27 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 14, 2011, 05:56:33 AM
California (Field):
Those CA numbers are starting to be brutal.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,065
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8856 on:
September 14, 2011, 07:36:53 AM »
Quote from: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 07:25:27 AM
Those CA numbers are starting to be brutal.
I guess many California Democrats are disapproving right now because they think Obama is not liberal enough. But during the 2012 campaign this will change and they will never vote for someone like Rick Perry.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8857 on:
September 14, 2011, 07:56:55 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 14, 2011, 07:36:53 AM
Quote from: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 07:25:27 AM
Those CA numbers are starting to be brutal.
I guess many California Democrats are disapproving right now because they think Obama is not liberal enough. But during the 2012 campaign this will change and they will never vote for someone like Rick Perry.
I think it is the unemployment rate, which is 12%.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/19/california-unemployment-rate-july-2011_n_931989.html
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8858 on:
September 14, 2011, 08:45:22 AM »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 45, u.
Disapprove 54%, u.
"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.
Either a bad sample or Obama is improving.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8859 on:
September 14, 2011, 09:39:23 AM »
The 'bots did a head to head:
40% Obama
43% Romney
http://www.care2.com/causes/obama-leads-trails-in-new-polls.html
Obama vs. Perry to be out Friday.
Logged
Marston
Jr. Member
Posts: 446
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8860 on:
September 14, 2011, 11:03:57 AM »
Quote from: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 08:45:22 AM
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 45, u.
Disapprove 54%, u.
"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.
Either a bad sample or Obama is improving.
Could be the fact that he's finally wandered onto the right subject: jobs.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8861 on:
September 14, 2011, 12:23:33 PM »
Quote from: Marston on September 14, 2011, 11:03:57 AM
Quote from: J. J. on September 14, 2011, 08:45:22 AM
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 45, u.
Disapprove 54%, u.
"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.
Either a bad sample or Obama is improving.
Could be the fact that he's finally wandered onto the right subject: jobs.
Or a bad sample. We should know by Friday.
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,653
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8862 on:
September 14, 2011, 04:22:27 PM »
Rasmussen has blipped up a couple points, Gallup has blipped down a couple points.
Everybody and their dog who who has done a poll recently has Obama between 42 and 45%, excepting the Internet folks (Planet Z, YouGov, etc) and Gallup which seems to be centered a couple points below the consensus average.
It's pretty easy to get fixated on the noise, but remembered the 19 out of 20 thing..
You expect one or two blips a month from a daily tracking poll
Obama is in the mid to upper part of the 40% to 45% band..... there is a bit of noise centered around this band...
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
Posts: 4,653
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8863 on:
September 14, 2011, 05:00:33 PM »
Quote from: Marston on September 14, 2011, 11:03:57 AM
Could be the fact that he's finally wandered onto the right subject: jobs.
And
only
970 days into his presidency..... The chap is a quick learner, I'll give him that..
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8864 on:
September 15, 2011, 08:45:32 AM »
«
Edited:
September 15, 2011, 02:30:08 PM
by
J. J. »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 46, +1.
Disapprove 53%, -1.
"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,065
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8865 on:
September 15, 2011, 11:58:48 AM »
The strongly numbers are 23-40, not 23-44.
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pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,044
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8866 on:
September 15, 2011, 01:44:20 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on September 15, 2011, 08:45:32 AM
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 46, +1.
Disapprove 53%, -1.
"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +4.
There probably is a bad sample in there because of the jump up in the strongly disapproved number. It will
probably
drop out tomorrow.
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 15, 2011, 11:58:48 AM
The strongly numbers are 23-40, not 23-44.
That is a big gain from the recent nadir. No conclusions, though.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,065
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8867 on:
September 15, 2011, 02:13:07 PM »
Gallup is going in the opposite direction once again:
39-53 today
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8868 on:
September 15, 2011, 02:27:18 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 15, 2011, 11:58:48 AM
The strongly numbers are 23-40, not 23-44.
It showed up as a 23-43, a +4 gain, though, as noted, it looked like a bad sample. It might have been wrong data entered, but it's now showing 40%.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,044
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8869 on:
September 15, 2011, 06:14:44 PM »
Missouri, PPP:
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The sample voted more R than the state as a whole did in 2008, so it is good news for the President.
Virginia, not so great...
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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x5822.xml?ReleaseID=1644
I am not showing it, but any indication that President Obama would lose the youth vote in 2012 doesn't show here.
It is two different pollsters, but Romney wins Virginia but Perry loses it, and Perry wins North Carolina but Romney loses it. The Republican nominee needs to win both Virginia and North Carolina to have a real chance of winning the Presidency.
Key:
<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval)
;
90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50% Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
Months (All polls are from 2011):
A - January G - July
B - February H - August
C - March I - September
D - April J - October
E - May K - November
F - June L - December
S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%... let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided.
Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.
Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.
Z- no recent poll
Or here:
MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
(before any campaigning begins in earnest)
assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!
deep red Obama 10% margin or greater
63
medium red Obama, 5-9.9% margin
80
pale red Obama, margin under 5%
76
white too close to call (margin 1% or less)
63
pale blue Republican under 5%
73
medium blue Republican 5-9.9% margin
54
deep blue Republican over 10%
26
44% approval is roughly the break-even point (50/50) for an incumbent's win. I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.
This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.
Here's the rationale:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html
...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.
But --
I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.
I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white,
pale pink
, or pale blue
This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.
deep red Obama 10% margin or greater
54
medium red Obama, 5-9.9% margin
104
pale red Obama, margin under 5%
89
white too close to call (margin 1% or less)
18
yellow close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate
49
orange close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate
3
Obama wins against all but one to whom he loses
37
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else 41
close, but Obama wins against
someone
other than Romney
101
pale blue Republican under 5%
12
medium blue Republican 5-9.9% margin
9
deep blue Republican over 10%
35
Logged
Jackson
Jr. Member
Posts: 568
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8870 on:
September 15, 2011, 11:51:30 PM »
You know, there comes a time when a graphic conveys too much information to be legible. You have reached that point.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8871 on:
September 16, 2011, 08:53:29 AM »
Rasmussen Obama (National)
Approve 46, u.
Disapprove 53%, u.
"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, +1. "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.
A slight improvement over the last week.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8872 on:
September 16, 2011, 12:28:03 PM »
Gallup:
Approve: 39, u
Disapprove: 52, -1
I kind of think it is a bad sample. We should know by Sunday.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,308
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8873 on:
September 16, 2011, 12:45:53 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on September 16, 2011, 12:28:03 PM
Gallup:
Approve: 39, u
Disapprove: 52, -1
I kind of think it is a bad sample. We should know by Sunday.
Where's the "meh"?
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,044
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8874 on:
September 16, 2011, 12:47:03 PM »
Quote from: Jackson on September 15, 2011, 11:51:30 PM
You know, there comes a time when a graphic conveys too much information to be legible. You have reached that point.
Here's one alternative of my creation, and you will see that it shows little less (useful and current) information with much less garishness. It doesn't show approvals, though, but I can;t be sure that approval means the same thing to every pollster.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140886.0
Oh --
www.electoralvote.com
has just been restarted, and its operator is far more adept than I am at showing what I have been showing. I don't expect to compete with that site, which is my inspiration, here once its operator gets active.
Logged
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