The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Tender Branson]

PPP:

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, September 8, 2011 - September 11, 2011.

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/9/8

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, +1.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

Possibly some movement toward Obama, again.  Either that or statistical noise. 

[Mehmentum]

The PPP and Rasmussen Polls are very close.

Something's wrong.

[Tender Branson]

California (Field):

[Tender Branson]

Bloomberg/Selzer:

45% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rcBTdobXyUWg

CNN/ORC:

43% Approve
55% Disapprove

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/09/13/cnn-poll-president-gets-no-bounce-from-speech-but-disapproval-rating-peaks

[J. J.]

California (Field):

Those CA numbers are starting to be brutal.

[Tender Branson]

Those CA numbers are starting to be brutal.

I guess many California Democrats are disapproving right now because they think Obama is not liberal enough. But during the 2012 campaign this will change and they will never vote for someone like Rick Perry.

[J. J.]

Those CA numbers are starting to be brutal.

I guess many California Democrats are disapproving right now because they think Obama is not liberal enough. But during the 2012 campaign this will change and they will never vote for someone like Rick Perry.

I think it is the unemployment rate, which is 12%.  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/19/california-unemployment-rate-july-2011_n_931989.html

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.

Either a bad sample or Obama is improving.

[J. J.]

The 'bots did a head to head:

40%  Obama
43%  Romney

http://www.care2.com/causes/obama-leads-trails-in-new-polls.html

Obama vs. Perry to be out Friday. 

[Marston]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.

Either a bad sample or Obama is improving.

Could be the fact that he's finally wandered onto the right subject: jobs.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -2.

Either a bad sample or Obama is improving.

Could be the fact that he's finally wandered onto the right subject: jobs.

Or a bad sample.  We should know by Friday.

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen has blipped up a couple points, Gallup has blipped down a couple points.

Everybody and their dog who who has done a poll recently has Obama between 42 and 45%, excepting the Internet folks (Planet Z, YouGov, etc) and Gallup which seems to be centered a couple points below the consensus average.

It's pretty easy to get fixated on the noise, but remembered the 19 out of 20 thing..

You expect one or two blips a month from a daily tracking poll

Obama is in the mid to upper part of the 40% to 45% band..... there is a bit of noise centered around this band...

[The Vorlon]

Could be the fact that he's finally wandered onto the right subject: jobs.

And only 970 days into his presidency.....  The chap is a quick learner, I'll give him that..

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

[Tender Branson]

The strongly numbers are 23-40, not 23-44.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +4.

There probably is a bad sample in there because of the jump up in the strongly disapproved number.  It will probably drop out tomorrow.

The strongly numbers are 23-40, not 23-44.

That is a big gain from the recent nadir.  No conclusions, though.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup is going in the opposite direction once again:

39-53 today

[J. J.]

The strongly numbers are 23-40, not 23-44.

It showed up as a 23-43, a +4 gain, though, as noted, it looked like a bad sample.  It might have been wrong data entered, but it's now showing 40%.

[pbrower2a]

Missouri, PPP:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The sample voted more R than the state as a whole did in 2008, so it is good news for the President. 

Virginia, not so great...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x5822.xml?ReleaseID=1644

I am not showing it, but any indication that President Obama would lose the youth vote in 2012 doesn't show here.

It is two different pollsters, but Romney wins Virginia but Perry loses it, and Perry wins North Carolina but Romney loses it.  The Republican nominee needs to win both Virginia and North Carolina to have a real chance of winning the Presidency.







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 63
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    80
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 76
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 54
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   26




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 54
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    104
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 89
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but one to whom he loses 37
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  41
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  35  

[Jackson]

You know, there comes a time when a graphic conveys too much information to be legible. You have reached that point.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

A slight improvement over the last week.

[J. J.]

Gallup:

Approve: 39, u

Disapprove:  52, -1

I kind of think it is a bad sample.  We should know by Sunday.

[Phony Moderate]

Gallup:

Approve: 39, u

Disapprove:  52, -1

I kind of think it is a bad sample.  We should know by Sunday.

Where's the "meh"? 

[pbrower2a]

You know, there comes a time when a graphic conveys too much information to be legible. You have reached that point.

Here's one alternative of my creation, and you will see that it shows little less (useful and current) information with much less garishness. It doesn't show approvals, though, but I can;t be sure that approval means the same thing to every pollster.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=140886.0

Oh -- www.electoralvote.com has just been restarted, and its operator is far more adept than I am at showing what I have been showing. I don't expect to compete with that site, which is my inspiration, here once its operator gets active.