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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1030818 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #8700 on: August 30, 2011, 01:18:32 pm »

Gallup's front page is showing 38 to 54, unchanged, but it is still showing the last changes on the other pages.
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« Reply #8701 on: August 30, 2011, 04:29:58 pm »

I am betting its a very bad simple it should drop out next week.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8702 on: August 30, 2011, 04:41:02 pm »

I am betting its a very bad simple it should drop out next week.

You'd lose the bet. 

Gallup is a three day sample, so a skewed sample in there Sunday should drop out after today or tomorrow's sampling (since they skipped a day of polling).

Further, Obama had these numbers last week on some days as well.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8703 on: August 30, 2011, 06:34:49 pm »

Zogby: Obama at 40% national

http://www.zogby.com/news/2011/08/30/ibope-zogby-poll-perry-races-far-ahead-republican-field-4-announced-gop-candidates-tie-or-lead-obama/
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J. J.
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« Reply #8704 on: August 30, 2011, 07:52:39 pm »


It's Zogby.  Even worse, it is an interactive Zogby.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #8705 on: August 30, 2011, 10:38:14 pm »

back to the gallup 31 pc rumor...I think the headlines of such a quick drop could cause social unrest in america, and not among obamas supporters, but simply because it would mean a quick and radical shift, showing people were losing faith in government...that is why I didn't think it was funny at all, in fact it would e very troubling 
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J. J.
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« Reply #8706 on: August 30, 2011, 11:46:30 pm »

back to the gallup 31 pc rumor...I think the headlines of such a quick drop could cause social unrest in america, and not among obamas supporters, but simply because it would mean a quick and radical shift, showing people were losing faith in government...that is why I didn't think it was funny at all, in fact it would e very troubling 

They've run lower numbers for other presidents.

I think it was a really bad sample and they decided not to use it.  It might have been related to the hurricane.  It would be difficult to poll NC, VA, DE, MD, PA, NY, CN, and VT this week.  Smiley
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jmfcst
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« Reply #8707 on: August 31, 2011, 08:01:07 am »

back to the gallup 31 pc rumor...I think the headlines of such a quick drop could cause social unrest in america, and not among obamas supporters, but simply because it would mean a quick and radical shift, showing people were losing faith in government...that is why I didn't think it was funny at all, in fact it would e very troubling 

They've run lower numbers for other presidents.

true, but that quick a drop, from 38 to 31, in this politcal climate could be a precursor to the riots Ron Paul predicted....which is what alarmed me - the only way Ron Paul gets elected is if there is mass chaos

also, if we are in a double dip come next summer and it is clear obama is going to lose, Rick Perry aint exactly a beacon of hope and we could see social unrest in the US
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J. J.
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« Reply #8708 on: August 31, 2011, 08:17:31 am »

back to the gallup 31 pc rumor...I think the headlines of such a quick drop could cause social unrest in america, and not among obamas supporters, but simply because it would mean a quick and radical shift, showing people were losing faith in government...that is why I didn't think it was funny at all, in fact it would e very troubling 

They've run lower numbers for other presidents.

true, but that quick a drop, from 38 to 31, in this politcal climate could be a precursor to the riots Ron Paul predicted....which is what alarmed me - the only way Ron Paul gets elected is if there is mass chaos

also, if we are in a double dip come next summer and it is clear obama is going to lose, Rick Perry aint exactly a beacon of hope and we could see social unrest in the US

I don't think there ever was that cause and effect.  Unrest might cause a president's numbers to drop, but a president's dropping numbers don't cause unrest.

I think this was more of a sample that was clearly unreliable, because of problems acquiring the sample (and certainly not mirrored in other polls).
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J. J.
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« Reply #8709 on: August 31, 2011, 08:39:31 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -1.

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.

Obama has, generally, been in decline since the second or third week of July.  It does not look like he is improving and may be eroding slightly.

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jmfcst
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« Reply #8710 on: August 31, 2011, 09:06:26 am »

I don't think there ever was that cause and effect.  Unrest might cause a president's numbers to drop, but a president's dropping numbers don't cause unrest.

not the news itself, just the underlying current that would be behind such a quick drop in approval.  at this point in time (with really no major news story), a rapid mood swing reflected in such a quick drop would be very bad news for both parties and for the country in general.  it would be a sign that the cohesiveness that binds us together as Americans was coming unravelled.

needless to say, I was alarmed when I saw the quick drop to 31...made me want to go out and buy ammo and stock up on canned goods
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J. J.
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« Reply #8711 on: August 31, 2011, 03:44:31 pm »


http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  39%, +1.

Disapprove:  54%, -1.


Any "hurricane damaged sample" should be out Friday.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8712 on: September 01, 2011, 08:35:34 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, +1.

Disapprove 56%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

No Irene effect.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8713 on: September 01, 2011, 08:53:10 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43, +1.

Disapprove 56%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

No Irene effect.



Just that no conclusions can be drawn, PPP will have Kentucky (safely out of the range of Irene), and South Carolina (slight if any effect from Irene). This weekend PPP will be doing West Virginia and North Carolina. I think that PPP would be unwise to poll North Carolina this weekend -- and not that I would prefer that it polled Florida or Missouri.

The President does not grandstand on natural disasters, but I figure that people still remember the tragedy and travesty of Katrina.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8714 on: September 01, 2011, 12:02:21 pm »

Strong jump on the Gallup today:

42% Approve (+3)
50% Disapprove (-4)
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« Reply #8715 on: September 01, 2011, 12:03:41 pm »

Strong jump on the Gallup today:

42% Approve (+3)
50% Disapprove (-4)

In before anyone says Irene. Roll Eyes
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8716 on: September 01, 2011, 12:03:48 pm »

Quinnipiac had it 42-52 today (well, in the last 2 weeks).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1640
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8717 on: September 01, 2011, 12:31:11 pm »

WV (West Virginia Chamber of Commerce/R.L. Repass & Partners):

24% Approve
64% Disapprove

R.L. Repass & Partners conducted the telephone poll for the Chamber in mid-August. It questioned 300 registered voters in West Virginia about where they stand on politics, the economy, sports, and other topics.

http://www.statejournal.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=106674

"The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent."

LOL, what ?
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CJK
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« Reply #8718 on: September 01, 2011, 12:47:49 pm »

Obama average approval August 2011 (Gallup)

40% Approve

52% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Roosevelt: 48/43 (August 1939)

Truman: No poll (August 1947) AND 31/57 (August 1951)

Eisenhower: 74/14 (August 1955)

Kennedy: 63/26 (August 1963)

Johnson: 40/48 (August 1967)

Nixon: 49/39 (August 1971)

Ford: 46/37 (August 1975)

Carter: 32/54 (August 1979)

Reagan: 43/46 (August 1983)

Bush I: 71/21 (August 1991)

Clinton: 46/43 (August 1995)

Bush II: 60/37 (August 2003)
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J. J.
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« Reply #8719 on: September 01, 2011, 01:37:15 pm »
« Edited: September 01, 2011, 01:39:30 pm by J. J. »



http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  42%, +3.

Disapprove:  50%, -4.


Maybe a hurricane damaged sample dropping out.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8720 on: September 01, 2011, 03:30:09 pm »
« Edited: September 01, 2011, 03:57:12 pm by pbrower2a »

Prime example of the sort of poll that I consider suspect:

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Reason:

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http://www.statejournal.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=106674

A state Chamber of Commerce is about as likely to show no bias as a labor union is likely to show no bias.

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Because evisceration of labor unions is one of the cornerstones of any pro-business group and West Virginia has a long heritage of strong union activity, I would consider that suspect.

PPP will poll the state this weekend, and I wouldn't be surprised if President Obama polls only in the 30s in the Mountaineer State, as he is a poor match for the culture of Appalachia. I am showing it because it shows what "suspect" looks like.






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 57
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  43
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 29
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 110
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8721 on: September 01, 2011, 04:07:54 pm »
« Edited: September 02, 2011, 04:36:32 pm by pbrower2a »

Pennsylvania, Franklin&Marshall.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/images/video/2011_pdfs/0901gpPolls.pdf

It's an EGFP poll, and not an approval poll, so I won't show the EGFP results. Check the link if you are curious.

I can't copy the data directly, but in essence, the President out-polls all major Pennsylvania pols (including the Republican Governor and the split Senatorial delegation) President Obama fares better than any shown Republican challenger except Perry, who is not shown. I have no cause to believe  that Rick Perry would fare better than Romney or Bachmann in Pennsylvania.


Now, for one that nobody can argue with:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/09/obama-lags-perry-by-8-romney-by-15-in-south-carolina.html#more

South Carolina is close to the national level for approval ratings... but the President would lose the state.







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 48
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 41
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  63
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 9
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 101
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 9
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8722 on: September 01, 2011, 05:47:06 pm »

Obama at 38%

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/20110830econToplines.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8723 on: September 02, 2011, 12:38:08 am »

FOX News:

44% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/politics/2011/09/01/fox-news-poll-60-disapprove-president-obama-on-job-creation
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J. J.
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« Reply #8724 on: September 02, 2011, 08:41:03 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, +1.

Disapprove 55%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 19%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

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