The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Gallup at 38%. New low.

Pro-Gaddafi sample working its way through the system.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Gallup at 38%. New low.

not for long

[J. J.]

And, the quake knocks off the top story of Obama's numbers.

(I hope everyone is okay.)

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

And, the quake knocks the top story of Obama's numbers.

Why would Obama's low going from 39% to 38% be a top story?

[pbrower2a]

Gallup at 38%. New low.

Pro-Gaddafi sample working its way through the system.

Snicker, snicker!

[The Vorlon]

And, the quake knocks the top story of Obama's numbers.

Why would Obama's low going from 39% to 38% be a top story?

There are some folks who have suggested that media outlets such as CBS, Drudge, HoPo, ABC, NYTimes etc may not be 100% entirely balanced and objective in their selection and presentation of news items.

38% represents, at least for now, his low point in the widely watched Gallup poll for Mr. Obama, so a media outlet wishing to present a "narrative" of a deeply troubled, confused, disastrous, and ill-fated presidency might post a headline with "38%" as the lead, to fuel this narrative.

We of course all know that our media are free of such biases.

[J. J.]

High buildings have a top story.  I was making an earthquake joke.

[The Vorlon]

Polls are really similar right now when it comes to Obama's approval.

If we assign the undecideds in the Gallup and PPP polls, it turns out to about 43-44% approval and 55-57% disapproval for Obama.

Gallup: 40-53 with 7% undecided, lets say they split 3-4 and we have a 43-57 approval.

Rasmussen: 44-55 with 1% undecided, which is about 44.5-55.5 approval.

PPP: 42-53 with 5% undecided, let's say 2-3 for the undecideds and we get a 44-56 approval.

A little bit apples to oranges

Gallup = Adults
PPP = Registered Voters
Rasmussen = Likely Voters/

But ya, no matter how you slice it, -11. -12 or -16 - it's pretty ugly no matter which way you look.

PPP (D) has Obama -11 which has to be pretty scary, and that's with a D+6 sample which is pretty optimistic.

the regional breakout, (West, South, etc) looks a tad funky.

I've never really looked carefully at a PPP poll, but this might be a good time

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  38%, -2.

Disapprove:  54%, +1.

I'm posting this for formatting and for the Disapprove and point change numbers.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, -1.

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  39%, +1.

Disapprove:  53%, -1.

Von Kluck still north of Paris.

[President von Cat]

Yikes, that looks pretty bad. Even if Obama gained five points, he'd still be in the lower part of the mid-40s. And it took the death of a major terrorist to give Obama five point bounce. The endgame of the Libyan conflict didn't give the President much of a bounce at all. Isn't he pretty much stuck in the high 30s/low 40s from now on?

How frustrating for the Obama team, given how successful of a president he has been.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not great approval, but the Republicans are doing badly in Iowa.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 86
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  43
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 29
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  55
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 81
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[Sbane]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not great approval, but the Republicans are doing badly in Iowa.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

These are quite interesting poll results..... I have a feeling now that even if unemployment is hovering around 9%, Obama will win in 2012 unless the Republicans nominate someone of caliber, which they refuse to do. I think it will take Europe imploding before the 2012 election for Obama to lose, and even then I think he would have a good chance if he can deflect the blame of the sh**tty economy on to the Europeans and off of him.

[PR]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not great approval, but the Republicans are doing badly in Iowa.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

These are quite interesting poll results..... I have a feeling now that even if unemployment is hovering around 9%, Obama will win in 2012 unless the Republicans nominate someone of caliber, which they refuse to do. I think it will take Europe imploding before the 2012 election for Obama to lose, and even then I think he would have a good chance if he can deflect the blame of the sh**tty economy on to the Europeans and off of him.

The "blame Europe first" strategy?

[Sbane]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not great approval, but the Republicans are doing badly in Iowa.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

These are quite interesting poll results..... I have a feeling now that even if unemployment is hovering around 9%, Obama will win in 2012 unless the Republicans nominate someone of caliber, which they refuse to do. I think it will take Europe imploding before the 2012 election for Obama to lose, and even then I think he would have a good chance if he can deflect the blame of the sh**tty economy on to the Europeans and off of him.

The "blame Europe first" strategy?

Lol, but it might actually work. Of course not if Fox has anything to say about it. Obviously everything wrong with the world is Obama's fault.

[pbrower2a]

The map above apparently show the President at a nadir for support.  He wins unless he gets a challenge from the Left (which would be happening now if it is to be relevant in 2012) or a Republican opponent who has few flaws. Sure, many right-wingers would love to see this President as the "new Jimmy Carter".

At an approval rating in the area of 40% the President still leads the strongest Republican candidate by 5% in Wisconsin (where the Right has just waged a strong defense of some State Senate seats) and 10% in Iowa.  To be sure, Al Gore lost in 2000 despite winning both states which are slightly D and of course in 2004 John Kerry split them -- but in both years, both states were really close. An even shift of 2.5% of the popular vote nationwide in 2000 toward Gore gives him Florida and New Hampshire; a similar shift in 2004 shifts Iowa, Ohio, and New Mexico to Kerry. Either scenario wins in 2000, 2004, or 2012.

President Obama isn't campaigning -- yet. The Republicans are making such a case as they can early -- which they must if they are to win the nomination. 

 

[pbrower2a]

Here is how I see Gore 2000 with a 2.5% gain if applied to 2012:



 (Ignore shades)


...and how I see Kerry 2004 with a 2.5% gain:



Basically, one trades Florida for Ohio.

[Tender Branson]

Here is how I see Gore 2000 with a 2.5% gain if applied to 2012:

Kentucky, WTF ?

[pbrower2a]

Here is how I see Gore 2000 with a 2.5% gain if applied to 2012:

Kentucky, WTF ?

Such happens when I type in the dark. Typo!

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -2.

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +1.

Either a very bad anti-Obama sample is moving through the system, or Obama is slumping.

There are perhaps 6-8 samples that have been worse since Obama was elected.

[The Vorlon]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -3. -2

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +1.

Either a very bad anti-Obama sample is moving through the system, or Obama is slumping.

There are perhaps 6-8 samples that have been worse since Obama was elected.

I think "the bot" had Obama at 44 yesterday.

New AP/Roper poll

http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK%20Poll%20Aug%202011%20FINAL%20Topline_ObamaEconomy.pdf

Approve = 46
Disapprove = 52

As always, AP is one of Obama's better polls.

The last AP poll was on June 20th, which showed Obama at +5 (52 / 47) so this represents a net shift of 11% (From +5 to -6)

On June 19th, 2010 the RCP average was Obama + 1.8% and today the RCP average is Obama - 7.5% for a net shift of 9.3%, so AP's 11% shift is broadly consistent with the trend in other polls.

In Party self Identification, Dems outnumber GOPers 29/21 (Dems +8)

Poll also shows 30% indys and 20% "None of these" so party ID is hard to compare to other polls.

Obama still is considered at least "somewhat likable" by 78% of those surveyed.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42, -3. -2

Disapprove 57%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 21%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +1.

Either a very bad anti-Obama sample is moving through the system, or Obama is slumping.

There are perhaps 6-8 samples that have been worse since Obama was elected.

I think "the bot" had Obama at 44 yesterday.

Fixed. 

[J. J.]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Gallup, meh:

Approve:  41%, +2.

Disapprove:  50%, -3.

Has von Kluck turned before the gates of Amiens?

[pbrower2a]

Florida, Mason-Dixon.

Among the findings of the August Sachs/Mason-Dixon Florida Poll:

***51 percent of Floridians would vote for Governor Romney compared to 43 percent for President Obama;

***In a hypothetical matchup with Texas Governor Rick Perry, Perry leads with 46 percent to Obama's 45 percent;

***President Obama leads Congresswoman Michele Bachmann 46 percent to 44 percent; and

***41 percent of Floridians approve of President Obama's job performance while 56 percent disapprove. Fifty five percent of independents disapprove.






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    25
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 104
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 57
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    35
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 117
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 18
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  43
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 29
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  26
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 110
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18