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  Talk Elections
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031477 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #8325 on: July 27, 2011, 10:10:58 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, +1.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8326 on: July 27, 2011, 01:11:22 pm »
« Edited: July 27, 2011, 02:09:42 pm by pbrower2a »

Quote
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_727930.pdf


Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 135
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    90
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 67
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 135
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    90
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 21
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  35
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 87
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #8327 on: July 27, 2011, 01:14:33 pm »

Obama average approval now at -3.1  (RealClear), he has been in negative territory for about 2 weeks, I expect he get some sort a bump when the debt ceiling is raised and he takes credit for whatever "compromise" occurs.

Bet no bump and bet Obama doesn't expect one.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8328 on: July 27, 2011, 02:26:07 pm »

Obama average approval now at -3.1  (RealClear), he has been in negative territory for about 2 weeks, I expect he get some sort a bump when the debt ceiling is raised and he takes credit for whatever "compromise" occurs.

Bet no bump and bet Obama doesn't expect one.

That would be President Obama vs. the Congressional GOP, anyway, which has more significance in House and Senate races than for the Presidency. Mitt Romney has been able to keep his mouth shut (I think wisely) on a topic that can do him no good in a head-to-head matchup with the President.

It's hard to imagine a Republican President (in the alternate universe, John McCain) having such an impasse with Congress, even if Democrats still held the House. 
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #8329 on: July 27, 2011, 02:31:19 pm »

Downgrade may bring Obama's approval down but GOP would be hurt far worse I think.  A big debt reducer would probably be more unpopular than popular and hurt both sides a little but equally.  Grand bargain is then smarter for GOP but they appear to either be betting Obama takes bigger hit than they do which seems dumb or they don't care if they lose the House as long as they win back the White House, which I'm sort of skeptical of since they'd lose their own jobs.  So I guess I'll go with dumb.  But I'm open to persuasion otherwise.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #8330 on: July 27, 2011, 05:26:12 pm »

No new numbers from SUSA this month??
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8331 on: July 28, 2011, 01:30:33 am »

No new numbers from SUSA this month??

Have not been released yet. Maybe in the next few days.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8332 on: July 28, 2011, 01:32:35 am »

California (PPIC)Sad

All Adults

52% Approve
42% Disapprove

Registered Voters

51% Approve
43% Disapprove

Likely Voters

48% Approve
47% Disapprove

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment, July 2011. Includes 2,504 adults, 1,619 registered voters, and 1,153 likely voters.

Interviews took place July 5–19, 2011. Numbers in above table are for all adults. Margin of error ±3%. Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding.

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0711.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #8333 on: July 28, 2011, 09:41:57 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.


Obama is not winning the budget battle, though he's not exactly losing it either.
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Penelope
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« Reply #8334 on: July 28, 2011, 09:57:08 am »

No one is winning the budget battle.
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PR
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« Reply #8335 on: July 28, 2011, 12:30:07 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.


Obama is not winning the budget battle, though he's not exactly losing it either.

I wonder how the approval ratings of Congress, specifically the House, compare.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8336 on: July 28, 2011, 12:36:18 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.


Obama is not winning the budget battle, though he's not exactly losing it either.

I wonder how the approval ratings of Congress, specifically the House, compare.

PPP's weekly poll says:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congressional Democrats are doing?

36-54

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congressional Republicans are doing?

30-60

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/7/21

Rasmussen says:

How would you rate the way Congress is doing its job?

  6% Excellent/Good
92% Fair/Poor

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_performance
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J. J.
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« Reply #8337 on: July 29, 2011, 09:23:50 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, +2.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.


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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8338 on: July 29, 2011, 12:36:20 pm »

Gallup:

40% Approve
50% Disapprove

The next week probably won't be nice ...
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Cincinnatus
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« Reply #8339 on: July 29, 2011, 12:42:26 pm »

Didn't Gallup have him at 46/46 just two days ago?  Tongue

In other approval ratings, 5% less people feel energized compared to yesterday.
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Donald Trump’s Hair
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« Reply #8340 on: July 29, 2011, 12:45:01 pm »

Didn't Gallup have him at 46/46 just two days ago?  Tongue

In other approval ratings, 5% less people feel energized compared to yesterday.

It was 46/46, but most of this week he's been in the low 40s.

It's only time that Obama will finally slip into the upper 30s. (Let's be honest - for the state of the economy his approval rating is higher than it really should be.....)
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Cincinnatus
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« Reply #8341 on: July 29, 2011, 12:50:26 pm »

It's amazing what charisma will do for your likability isn't it?  It will get you elected as President for starters.  Definitely can't question the man's ability to speak to a group of supporters.
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Dgov
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« Reply #8342 on: July 29, 2011, 01:07:59 pm »

Didn't Gallup have him at 46/46 just two days ago?  Tongue

Actually, that means that tomorrow his ratings are likely to be worse, since Gallup uses a 3-day rolling average and 3 days ago he went up a couple points.

Though Gallup's polling suggests that everyone's hurting right now, not just the President.
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GLPman
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« Reply #8343 on: July 29, 2011, 01:59:05 pm »

It's extremely surprising that Obama's approval hasn't taken more of a hit, especially considering that there were three days in a row where we didn't even see the man.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8344 on: July 29, 2011, 07:34:56 pm »

Gallup:

40% Approve
50% Disapprove

The next week probably won't be nice ...

That is the lowest Obama number ever.  Gallup isn't exactly known for accuracy recently.
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Miliband: The Art of the Comeback
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« Reply #8345 on: July 29, 2011, 08:04:53 pm »

Gallup:

40% Approve
50% Disapprove

The next week probably won't be nice ...

That is the lowest Obama number ever.  Gallup isn't exactly known for accuracy recently.

To be fair, I really can't think of anything in his presidency so far that Obama has been quite as abjectly pathetic on as this, even at the nadir of the health-care fight. The man called a prime-time nationwide address to tell people to call their Congressmen, for God's sake! (They did, so it was a success in that sense, but hardly something that gave off a feeling of anything remotely resembling strength). It makes sense to me that this is the sort of situation that could cause Obama to trough.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8346 on: July 29, 2011, 08:20:50 pm »

Gallup:

40% Approve
50% Disapprove

The next week probably won't be nice ...

That is the lowest Obama number ever.  Gallup isn't exactly known for accuracy recently.

To be fair, I really can't think of anything in his presidency so far that Obama has been quite as abjectly pathetic on as this, even at the nadir of the health-care fight. The man called a prime-time nationwide address to tell people to call their Congressmen, for God's sake! (They did, so it was a success in that sense, but hardly something that gave off a feeling of anything remotely resembling strength). It makes sense to me that this is the sort of situation that could cause Obama to trough.

We could be seeing the start of the trough.  People are calling their congressmen and saying "No new taxes," ironically.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #8347 on: July 30, 2011, 12:14:05 am »

Gallup:

40% Approve
50% Disapprove

The next week probably won't be nice ...

That is the lowest Obama number ever.  Gallup isn't exactly known for accuracy recently.

To be fair, I really can't think of anything in his presidency so far that Obama has been quite as abjectly pathetic on as this, even at the nadir of the health-care fight. The man called a prime-time nationwide address to tell people to call their Congressmen, for God's sake! (They did, so it was a success in that sense, but hardly something that gave off a feeling of anything remotely resembling strength). It makes sense to me that this is the sort of situation that could cause Obama to trough.

The irony is that Republicans have been desperate to compare Obama to Jimmy Carter the only one-term Democratic president in over 100 years and they finally got him to look ineffective in a hostage situation.  Never mind that they're the one who took the hostages.  It's not clear to me what Obama could do differently exactly that would go over better.  Or that the drop is even linked to the debt impasse as opposed to the economy in general.  Maybe if he does what Clinton advised we'll find out.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8348 on: July 30, 2011, 01:13:06 am »

SurveyUSA July Approval Ratings (all polls conducted on July 26):

California: 50% Approve, 47% Disapprove (+2, nc)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c717d146-99e7-4de8-8217-9fb792fc2fb8

Kansas: 36% Approve, 61% Disapprove (+1, +4)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c9cb9d95-0451-467c-8613-efb0bf5d4a7e

Oregon: 44% Approve, 53% Disapprove (+6, -5)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=87dabdb7-5435-402e-891e-11b3bf475127

Washington: 47% Approve, 50% Disapprove (+1, +1)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c34262fe-7152-4e56-be8d-dd7e32b0f6dd
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8349 on: July 30, 2011, 01:22:04 am »

This month, the SurveyUSA numbers actually make some sense with Obama between 40-45% nationally.

They made no sense with Obama at 50%.
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