The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #8300 on: July 20, 2011, 10:25:20 AM »

I can think of a perfect island. It is spectacularly beautiful, has a pleasant climate, good harbors, attractive and friendly natives, and no pirates or tropical diseases. Its location is 40 North Latitude and 160 West Longitude. Good as it is, it must have the quality of existence.  

Of course there is no such island.

It sounds like you described Hawaii to a T, except for the 40 North Latitude part. Think you can live with all but an arbitrary designation of latitude?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8301 on: July 20, 2011, 10:39:06 AM »

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/7/14

Kos: 44/52
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8302 on: July 20, 2011, 11:30:36 AM »
« Edited: July 20, 2011, 11:32:54 AM by pbrower2a »

I can think of a perfect island. It is spectacularly beautiful, has a pleasant climate, good harbors, attractive and friendly natives, and no pirates or tropical diseases. Its location is 40 North Latitude and 160 West Longitude. Good as it is, it must have the quality of existence.  

Of course there is no such island.

It sounds like you described Hawaii to a T, except for the 40 North Latitude part. Think you can live with all but an arbitrary designation of latitude?

At 40 North the climate would be much like San Francisco. The place exists, all right - as open ocean. It's a parody of a critique of Pascal's "proof" of the existence of God. There is no island, of course, and there is no perfect example of a "Generic Republican" who could easily defeat President Obama. Besides, "Generic Republican" and "Generic Democrat" go into hibernation as the primaries begin, and we are stuck with real persons with real faults and vulnerabilities.
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Umengus
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« Reply #8303 on: July 20, 2011, 01:28:35 PM »


wow ! and the favorability is bad too (45/50). Hispanics and independents  are unhappy ! cfr economy

The party sample is D +4, correct for me.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8304 on: July 20, 2011, 09:17:36 PM »

PPP will have Michigan and Virginia this weekend.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8305 on: July 21, 2011, 12:23:07 AM »

I'm going to be very very interested in those numbers.
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MR. NAPHTHALI BENNETT
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« Reply #8306 on: July 21, 2011, 01:12:54 AM »

It's a parody of a critique of Pascal's "proof" of the existence of God.

Anselm's.

I completely agree with the rest of the paragraph though.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8307 on: July 21, 2011, 08:37:09 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8308 on: July 21, 2011, 09:33:52 AM »
« Edited: July 21, 2011, 09:37:08 AM by pbrower2a »

Ohio, as critical a state as there is:

Quote
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Maybe Americans are just getting fussier about political results, and such hits all elected officials and candidates similarly. After what they had as President between 2001 and 2008, they should be fussier.


Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 120
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   119
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 77
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   113
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 23
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  35
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 87
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #8309 on: July 21, 2011, 12:50:55 PM »


             
deep red                 Obama 10% margin or greater 136
medium red           Obama, 5-9.9% margin   88
pale red                  Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                       too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                     close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                    close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
dark green             Obama wins against all but  Romney 21
dark yellow            Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  35
lime green              close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 69
pale blue                 Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue          Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                Republican over 10%  18  
grey                          No polling yet  82

Fixed.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8310 on: July 22, 2011, 08:36:55 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

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krazen1211
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« Reply #8311 on: July 22, 2011, 01:19:20 PM »

CNN: 45/54.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/22/cnn-poll-drop-in-liberal-support-pushes-obama-approval-rating-down/
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #8312 on: July 22, 2011, 02:34:59 PM »

Are we gonna have an election where the Democrat is touting his national security credentials while the Republican is campaigning on the economy?  How ironic....
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #8313 on: July 22, 2011, 02:46:12 PM »

Are we gonna have an election where the Democrat is touting his national security credentials while the Republican is campaigning on the economy?  How ironic....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1968
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8314 on: July 22, 2011, 04:23:28 PM »

Ohio, as critical a state as there is:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Maybe Americans are just getting fussier about political results, and such hits all elected officials and candidates similarly. After what they had as President between 2001 and 2008, they should be fussier.


Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 120
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   119
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 77
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   113
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 23
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  35
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 87
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #8315 on: July 23, 2011, 12:42:03 AM »


             
deep red                 Obama 10% margin or greater 136
medium red           Obama, 5-9.9% margin   88
pale red                  Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                       too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                     close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                    close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
dark green             Obama wins against all but  Romney 21
dark yellow            Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  35
lime green              close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 69
pale blue                 Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue          Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                Republican over 10%  18  
grey                          No polling yet  82

Fixed.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 122
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  113
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 23
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  35
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 87
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18 

*Ahem*
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #8316 on: July 23, 2011, 05:25:11 PM »

Obama average approval now at -3.1  (RealClear), he has been in negative territory for about 2 weeks, I expect he get some sort a bump when the debt ceiling is raised and he takes credit for whatever "compromise" occurs.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8317 on: July 23, 2011, 05:47:26 PM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +2.

A definite drop, but it just could a very bad anti-Obama sample moving through the system.
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Badger
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« Reply #8318 on: July 23, 2011, 11:23:07 PM »


From the article:

"Looking at that figure another way, roughly one in four Americans who disapprove of the president say they feel that way because he's not been liberal enough."

And approximately 0-2% of those will vote for Romney or (especially) Bachmann. And not that much more will refuse to turn out when all is said and done.

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jfern
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« Reply #8319 on: July 23, 2011, 11:26:07 PM »


From the article:

"Looking at that figure another way, roughly one in four Americans who disapprove of the president say they feel that way because he's not been liberal enough."

And approximately 0-2% of those will vote for Romney or (especially) Bachmann. And not that much more will refuse to turn out when all is said and done.



Obama is probably mad that repealing DADT wasn't enough to buy the support of those people that he's spent the last 2.5 years stabbing in the back. Damn those multi-issue voters.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8320 on: July 24, 2011, 08:37:42 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +2.

Bad sample?
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CultureKing
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« Reply #8321 on: July 24, 2011, 05:14:51 PM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +2.

Bad sample?

I think it's more the American public beginning to realize the seriousness of the budget cap debate... And while it's effecting Obama's approval I wouldn't be surprised if congressional dems and republicans also take dives soon. Which could mean that Obama may look artificially weak (especially when you consider the number of dems that disapprove because he has led without balls but would still vote for Obama in the next election.)

In other words people are angry but due to divided government are having a hard time directing/focusing that anger on any one player.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8322 on: July 25, 2011, 08:49:11 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, -1.

Disapprove 55%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

If this is a bad sample, it should be out tomorrow.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8323 on: July 26, 2011, 09:12:34 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44, u.

Disapprove 55%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

Obama's numbers have declined, but are not in free fall.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8324 on: July 26, 2011, 03:07:55 PM »

Virginia Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obamas job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 40%
Undecided....................................................... 11%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Herman Cain................................................... 38%
Undecided....................................................... 13%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 37%
Undecided....................................................... 12%

Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 39%
Undecided....................................................... 13%

Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%
Undecided....................................................... 11%


Current map:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 135
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   80
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   16





44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

Here's the rationale:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

...and I am less charitable to an incumbent President than is Nate Silver.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.







             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 135
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin    74
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 0
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  11
orange                        close, but Obama loses against any major Republican candidate 3
Obama wins against all but  Romney 21
Obama ties one candidate, but defeats everyone else  35
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 87
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 0
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

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