The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Penelope
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« Reply #8025 on: June 04, 2011, 03:36:19 PM »

OBAMA LOST THREE POINTS IN APPROVAL, HE'S BEEN COMPLETELY DEMOLISHED.
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foodgellas
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« Reply #8026 on: June 05, 2011, 02:55:07 PM »

Unfortunately Oakvale, your buddies in the Democrat Party all pointed to how Obama's approval rating in Gallup was at its highest point and how his disapproval was now under 40% when he hit 53/39 two days ago.

Now that he's back down to a mediocre 48/44 and may fall tomorrow as well, I'm going to point it out.

I love how irritated the righties get when Obama goes up in opinion polls. "But... but.. he's a socialist!"
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #8027 on: June 05, 2011, 03:54:45 PM »

47/45 in Gallup, now down 12 net approval points in three days.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #8028 on: June 05, 2011, 05:09:06 PM »

47/45 in Gallup, now down 12 net approval points in three days.

I'll quote Odysseus:


OBAMA LOST THREE 12 POINTS IN APPROVAL, HE'S BEEN COMPLETELY DEMOLISHED.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #8029 on: June 05, 2011, 05:09:48 PM »

47/45 in Gallup, now down 12 net approval points in three days.
It sounds like you're trying to compensate for something.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #8030 on: June 05, 2011, 06:22:37 PM »

OBAMA COLLAPSES THREE POINTS IN TRACKING POLL, PALIN ELECTED PRESIDENT IN LANDSLIDE
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8031 on: June 06, 2011, 05:23:31 AM »

I just deleted the last couple of posts in the thread because it was getting too personal.

Guys, I know some of you may not like poundingtherock, but the rule against personal attacks does not have any special exemption for him.  If you don't want to read his posts, you can always put him on ignore.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #8032 on: June 06, 2011, 01:16:47 PM »

I just deleted the last couple of posts in the thread because it was getting too personal.

Guys, I know some of you may not like poundingtherock, but the rule against personal attacks does not have any special exemption for him.  If you don't want to read his posts, you can always put him on ignore.


How's this for a personal attack?

You know what I want, Mr Morden? I'd like to live just long enough to be there when they cut off your head and stick it on a pike as a warning to the next ten generations that some favors come with too high a price. I would look up at your lifeless eyes and wave like this. *waves* Can you and your associates arrange this for me, Mr. Morden?
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King
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« Reply #8033 on: June 06, 2011, 02:55:53 PM »

So, what did Obama do last week that would cause this supposed Approvalgeddon?  Did I miss something or is this statistical noise?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8034 on: June 06, 2011, 04:00:26 PM »

I just deleted the last couple of posts in the thread because it was getting too personal.

Guys, I know some of you may not like poundingtherock, but the rule against personal attacks does not have any special exemption for him.  If you don't want to read his posts, you can always put him on ignore.


How's this for a personal attack?

You know what I want, Mr Morden? I'd like to live just long enough to be there when they cut off your head and stick it on a pike as a warning to the next ten generations that some favors come with too high a price. I would look up at your lifeless eyes and wave like this. *waves* Can you and your associates arrange this for me, Mr. Morden?

10 point infraction

(kidding....though it would be hilarious if someone reported that)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0n2vurSBIQ
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8035 on: June 06, 2011, 07:53:12 PM »

So, what did Obama do last week that would cause this supposed Approvalgeddon?  Did I miss something or is this statistical noise?

He didn't do anything specifically. It's just the awful economic numbers.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #8036 on: June 06, 2011, 09:56:36 PM »

Gallup:
Approve: 49% (+2)
Dissaprove 43% (-2)

OBAMA REBOUNDS, REELECTION ALL BUT ASSURED!!!! 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8037 on: June 07, 2011, 12:29:39 AM »

2 new national polls released today:

ABC News/Washington Post

47% Approve
49% Disapprove

Methodology -- This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone June 2-5, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,002 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results for the full sample have a 3.5-point error margin. Click here for a detailed description of sampling error. This survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y, with sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

http://langerresearch.com/uploads/1124a2_2012_Politics.pdf

PPP/DailyKos/SEIU

46% Approve
48% Disapprove

49% Favorable
46% Unfavorable

Public Policy Polling, 1000 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, June 2, 2011 - June 5, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/6/2
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8038 on: June 07, 2011, 12:33:32 AM »

The average of the last 4 recent polls (Rasmussen, Gallup, PPP, ABC/Post):

47.5% Approve
47.8% Disapprove
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #8039 on: June 07, 2011, 02:24:13 AM »

CBS certainly has been rather pessimistic in regards to the economy starting Friday. If this was true across most of the networks, that may be the reason for the more negative polling (ABC, and PPP). Perhaps Gallup is just late in picking this up.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8040 on: June 07, 2011, 12:58:19 PM »

Rasmussen today: 49-50 (+1, -1)

Gallup today: 50-40 (+1, -3)
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8041 on: June 07, 2011, 01:35:01 PM »

Might as well cancel the election.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
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« Reply #8042 on: June 07, 2011, 03:22:03 PM »

People are acting president obama is like 5% in his approval gallup has him back at 50%.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #8043 on: June 07, 2011, 10:54:41 PM »

Might as well cancel the election.
Because polls obviously will make no change between 2012 and now. Just look at Bush 41's re-election, or when Reagan was crushed by Carter  in 1980 Roll Eyes


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King
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« Reply #8044 on: June 07, 2011, 10:57:00 PM »

Might as well cancel the election.

4 POINT SWING IN ONE DAY!!! OBAMA MUST HAVE SAVED PUPPIES AND ASCENDED INTO HEAVEN!!!
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5280
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« Reply #8045 on: June 08, 2011, 01:05:36 AM »

Obama is a joke and a joker...next
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8046 on: June 08, 2011, 01:46:15 AM »
« Edited: June 08, 2011, 01:50:22 AM by pbrower2a »

Georgia, a Republican poll:

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http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_135/Georgia-Barack-Obama-Electoral-Chances-206245-1.html

http://landmarkcommunications.net/team

This poll is not really an approval poll -- but it directly contradicts (really supersedes) a matchup poll in which President Obama loses to Romney but nobody else. This matchup effectively suggests that Georgia is a likely pickup by President Obama against any imaginable GOP nominee, now including Mitt Romney.



Current map:
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 43
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  




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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8047 on: June 08, 2011, 01:49:59 AM »

This is why I still need to see something solid out of PA... that map just looks wrong...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8048 on: June 08, 2011, 02:09:36 AM »

This is why I still need to see something solid out of PA... that map just looks wrong...

I concur. I saw a bunch of states become more pro-Obama in the aftermath of the killing of Osama bin Laden. New York voted about 10% more for President Obama than did Pennsylvania. I just cant imagine New York approving the President by an amount in the low sixties while Pennsylvania approves of the President in an amount in the low forties. I see President Obama showing more recent approval ratings in the high forties in Arizona, Georgia, and Ohio, which is consistent with the President winning each of those states -- and South Carolina and Missouri in the mid-forties.

The most recent poll in Pennsylvania isn't so much wrong (it was probably right in its time)  as it is dated. It showed at a time when the President was at a low point in approval ratings. The only alternative explanation that I can find is that Pennsylvania really is going R even as states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio are going D.

Until I see a poll that supersedes the most recent poll in Pennsylvania, the one that I now have stays in place.

As for New Hampshire -- Mitt Romney now has his domicile there. Maybe he has some Favorite Son effect working for him; such could be enough to swing the state from 54-45 Obama to about 54-45 Romney. All in all I think that in his case any Favorite Son effect would be weak there; he has never held statewide office there (although he did in a neighboring state).   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8049 on: June 08, 2011, 11:32:51 AM »
« Edited: June 08, 2011, 12:05:30 PM by pbrower2a »

PPP, Minnesota. Last polled in December.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MN_0606.pdf

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President Obama wins at least 50% of the vote with gaps of at least 10% against any Republican:

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...except against Pawlenty, against whom he still locks up a majority against a possible Favorite Son

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and the unlikely scenario of a three-way race with Jesse Ventura as an independent, in which the President wins the state with a 'mere', but large and decisive plurality:


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Jesse Ventura would take more votes from President Obama than from Mitt Romney. This state might not be as overwhelmingly D as states like Vermont and Rhode Island , but it is probably as stable as any State. I figure that it is going to give about 50% of the vote to a Democratic nominee in a Republican landslide for the Presidency (1984) or about 57% to the Democratic landslide for the Presidency in which the Democrat wins 60% of the vote.    



Current map:
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 43
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  





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