The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50, -1

Disapprove 49%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, +1.

[pbrower2a]

The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll backs up Gallup and Quinnipiac:

52% Approve
41% Disapprove

Favorable Rating:

54% Somewhat/Very Positive
31% Somewhat/Very Negative
14% Neutral

If President Obama runs for re-election in the year 2012, do you think you will probably vote for President Obama or probably vote for the Republican candidate?

45% Probably vote for President Obama
30% Probably vote for Republican candidate
  4% Vote for other party
16% Depends on who opponent is

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/11192_MAY_NBC_Poll.pdf

A little math suggests a possible interpretation. Assuming no political or personal scandal, then the absolute worst that President Obama does in 2012 is

45-46-4 (really  47.4 - 48.4 - 4.2), which still might win because the President wins more states with giant EV totals by larger margins while the Republican wins fewer EVs with larger margins.

Such assumes that the GOP has a wonderful candidate capable of getting a convincing message across. Question: who?

At the other side is 61-30-4 (really  64.2 - 31.6 - 4.2), which would be without precedent on the other side. FDR in 1936, LBJ in 1964, and Nixon in 1972 maxed out with about 61% of the vote. It would take a loony, incompetent politician to get trounced that badly.

[Mehmentum]

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Several of which are potential candidates.

[Tender Branson]

Gallup: 52-40

PPP/DailyKos: 51-43

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/5/5

Pew Research: 50-39

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1987/obama-approval-before-after-bin-laden-death-bump

[Tender Branson]

A rather interesting new poll by EPIC-MRA for Michigan:

Obama: 38% Excellent/Good, 61% Fair/Poor

Snyder: 32% Excellent/Good, 60% Fair/Poor

The poll of 600 voters was conducted April 27-May 3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.freep.com/article/20110510/COL05/110510020/Poll-60-Michigan-voters-rate-Snyder-s-performance-poor-just-fair

[Rowan]

Rasmussen is starting a weekly presidential generic ballot now. Where should that be posted?

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen is starting a weekly presidential generic ballot now. Where should that be posted?

Probably in the General Election section, but a Generic Ballot is useless and especially done on a weekly basis ...

What a waste of money.

[Rowan]

Rasmussen is starting a weekly presidential generic ballot now. Where should that be posted?

Probably in the General Election section, but a Generic Ballot is useless and especially done on a weekly basis ...

What a waste of money.

All he had to do was add a question to his nightly tracking poll.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen is starting a weekly presidential generic ballot now. Where should that be posted?

Probably in the General Election section, but a Generic Ballot is useless and especially done on a weekly basis ...

What a waste of money.

All he had to do was add a question to his nightly tracking poll.

Still a waste. He should do a monthly tracking of the GOP primary and use the frontrunner of the previous month for a weekly matchup against Obama.

[pbrower2a]

A rather interesting new poll by EPIC-MRA for Michigan:

Obama: 38% Excellent/Good, 61% Fair/Poor

Snyder: 32% Excellent/Good, 60% Fair/Poor

The poll of 600 voters was conducted April 27-May 3 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.freep.com/article/20110510/COL05/110510020/Poll-60-Michigan-voters-rate-Snyder-s-performance-poor-just-fair

Just a reminder --

"Enhanced Green Fluorescent Protein" polls are not the same as approval polls, so they aren't useful. 

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Virginia.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_0510424.pdf

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Way down from the euphoric level immediately after the death of Osama bin Laden. Euphoria can disappear fast, especially about someone that many thought 'old news'.  

I'm not going to average this one. All in all, it's still very good. This state can think well of Republicans, including the Governor:

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But Virginians seem to consider the prospective Republican nominees a weak lot:

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Probably not relevant to 2012, but here's a good prospect for 2016:

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Here I discuss someone who might  win against a Democratic nominee much weaker than President Obama -- in 2016. Bob McDonnell is one of the most popular Governors in America irrespective of party. Just look at how much better he fares than do Republican Governors of Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maine, Florida, Georgia, and Arizona.
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 36
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 36
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 6
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[Tender Branson]

Obama hits 60% in new AP-GfK poll:

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama's approval rating is at its highest point in two years.

That's according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. It shows that 60 per cent now approve of the job Obama is doing. And more than half now say he deserves to be re-elected.

The poll was taken a week after U.S. forces killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden. And it comes on the heels of a strong jobs report that showed American businesses are on a hiring spree.

The president's standing has improved not just on foreign policy but also on the economy. Independents, a key voting bloc in the 2012 presidential election, caused the overall uptick in support by sliding back to Obama after deserting him for much of the past two years.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5gAHf_gbcSVotL-FHJnEvdb1vMQiw?docId=6815592

[Eraserhead]

Obama hits 60% in new AP-GfK poll:

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama's approval rating is at its highest point in two years.

That's according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. It shows that 60 per cent now approve of the job Obama is doing. And more than half now say he deserves to be re-elected.

The poll was taken a week after U.S. forces killed al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden. And it comes on the heels of a strong jobs report that showed American businesses are on a hiring spree.

The president's standing has improved not just on foreign policy but also on the economy. Independents, a key voting bloc in the 2012 presidential election, caused the overall uptick in support by sliding back to Obama after deserting him for much of the past two years.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5gAHf_gbcSVotL-FHJnEvdb1vMQiw?docId=6815592

I knew he had to hit 60% in something... even if it's just a crap poll!

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48, -2

Disapprove 52%, +3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +2.

Either the end of the bounce or just a bad sample?  We'll know by Saturday.

[Dgov]

Gallup's Weekly total is up again.  Basically a 7-Point increase versus last week, with basically every group gaining.

The Political subgroups are interesting though, He's still below 50% with Indies, mostly because the bump has come mostly from Republicans (10% to 21%).  Liberals and Democrats showed only a 2 and 3-point gain respectively, but this reflect an actual bounce tempered by a handful of "OMG AMERICAN EMPIRE" Liberals going the other way.

Also us Youngens saw a 13-Point approval jump, though this might be due to an usually low total for Obama last week (46%).  All other age groups went up 5 or 6.

Geographically, Obama went up 9 in the East and West, 7 in the South, and 5 in the Midwest.

There's not really any racial differences, though Obama's still off his highs with black voters (though they still overwhelmingly approve).

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

Though Gallup's other poll (Obama vs Generic R) Poll shows statistically insignificant movement in Obama's direction, going from tied to Obama + 3, suggesting the bulk of Obama's approval increase has come from people who probably wouldn't vote for him anyway.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147500/Obama-Approval-Bump-Hasnt-Transferred-2012-Prospects.aspx

[pbrower2a]

Gallup's Weekly total is up again.  Basically a 7-Point increase versus last week, with basically every group gaining.

The Political subgroups are interesting though, He's still below 50% with Indies, mostly because the bump has come mostly from Republicans (10% to 21%).  Liberals and Democrats showed only a 2 and 3-point gain respectively, but this reflect an actual bounce tempered by a handful of "OMG AMERICAN EMPIRE" Liberals going the other way.

Also us Youngens saw a 13-Point approval jump, though this might be due to an usually low total for Obama last week (46%).  All other age groups went up 5 or 6.

Geographically, Obama went up 9 in the East and West, 7 in the South, and 5 in the Midwest.

There's not really any racial differences, though Obama's still off his highs with black voters (though they still overwhelmingly approve).

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

Though Gallup's other poll (Obama vs Generic R) Poll shows statistically insignificant movement in Obama's direction, going from tied to Obama + 3, suggesting the bulk of Obama's approval increase has come from people who probably wouldn't vote for him anyway.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147500/Obama-Approval-Bump-Hasnt-Transferred-2012-Prospects.aspx

I checked the pattern for approval of Presidents Reagan, Clinton, and Obama... and they look so similar that the difference looks like random noise.

Republicans who approve of the assassination of Osama bin Laden are not likely to maintain approval of the President. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, -1

Disapprove 52%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, u.

Wait for Saturday.

[Saxwsylvania]

TX (University of Texas)

Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 45%
Not sure: 9%

http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/poll/files/201105-summary.pdf

[Tender Branson]

TX (University of Texas)

Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 45%
Not sure: 9%

http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/poll/files/201105-summary.pdf

OMGZ ! Enter pbrower in 3,2,1: Texas will be an important swing state in 2012 !!!

[pbrower2a]

TX (University of Texas)

Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 45%
Not sure: 9%

http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/poll/files/201105-summary.pdf

OMGZ ! Enter pbrower in 3,2,1: Texas will be an important swing state in 2012 !!!

I can't find the poll, and the report comes from an infamous prankster. 

[Ben Romney]

Obama Job Approval

45% Approve, 48% Disapprove (chart)

Economy: 37 / 57 (chart)

Health Care: 39 / 54 (chart)

2012 President

45% Obama (D), 39% Huckabee (R)

51% Obama (D), 33% Trump (R)

52% Obama (D), 32% Gingrich (R)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/12/us-2012-president-45-obam_n_861029.html

[Mr. Morden]

TX (University of Texas)

Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 45%
Not sure: 9%

http://www.laits.utexas.edu/txp_media/html/poll/files/201105-summary.pdf

Don't toy with us Mr. Morden.

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (SurveyUSA):

54% Approve
40% Disapprove

(Gov. Chris Christie):

38% Approve
56% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5ef5275c-3166-493d-aecb-3d856c8705a5

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, u

Disapprove 52%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, u.

Wait for Saturday (I won't be in until the afternoon).

[pbrower2a]

Missouri,  PPP

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Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 36
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 36
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 6
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54