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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1030896 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #7500 on: March 08, 2011, 12:07:00 pm »

I don't know what to make of this:

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/03/gov_christies_poll_numbers_dro.html

(Reuters-Eagleton)

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I don't use favorability polls.
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Dgov
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« Reply #7501 on: March 08, 2011, 01:22:25 pm »

I don't know what to make of this:

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/03/gov_christies_poll_numbers_dro.html

(Reuters-Eagleton)

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I don't use favorability polls.


Wow, did they actually use 3 different measures of a politicians popularity in the same poll?
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Dgov
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« Reply #7502 on: March 08, 2011, 01:28:29 pm »

Also, Obama's been down recently in Gallup.  Not as bad as late last year, but he's back to 46% on a weekly poll for the first time since 2010.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/146522/Obama-Weekly-Job-Approval-Retreats.aspx

Though this seems to be mostly from non-whites (as he's gone from 89% to 81% among Blacks, and 64% to 51% among Hispanics), and Liberals (77% to 71%).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7503 on: March 08, 2011, 02:04:37 pm »

North Carolina (High Point University):

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Approve 47%
Disapprove 46%

http://acme.highpoint.edu/~mkifer/src/7memo2.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7504 on: March 09, 2011, 07:31:53 am »

Today we have Connecticut (Quinnipiac):

49% Approve
47% Disapprove

From March 1 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,693 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1565
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7505 on: March 09, 2011, 07:49:56 am »

Today we have Connecticut (Quinnipiac):

49% Approve
47% Disapprove

From March 1 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,693 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1565

That's... interesting.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7506 on: March 09, 2011, 09:05:54 am »


North Carolina (High Point University):

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Approve 47%
Disapprove 46%

http://acme.highpoint.edu/~mkifer/src/7memo2.pdf
Today we have Connecticut (Quinnipiac):

49% Approve
47% Disapprove

From March 1 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,693 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1565





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   79
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   79
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  






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« Reply #7507 on: March 09, 2011, 10:31:07 am »

Today we have Connecticut (Quinnipiac):

49% Approve
47% Disapprove

From March 1 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,693 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1565

That's... interesting.

Indeed. The lowest Obama approval rating Q-pac has recorded yet in CT. Though their last poll was in July.

The very few cross-tabs don't seem overly suspicious, FWIW, but I have a VERY hard time believing Obama's approval rating in CT is comparable to NC or slightly lower than nationwide.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7508 on: March 09, 2011, 01:33:21 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -2.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, +2.


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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7509 on: March 09, 2011, 01:57:07 pm »

Reuters/Ipsos:

49% Approve
47% Disapprove

Gallup:

45% Approve
48% Disapprove
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7510 on: March 09, 2011, 02:01:23 pm »

Resurgent Republic/Ayres, McHenry & Associates:

47% Approve
49% Disapprove

49% Favorable
47% Unfavorable
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #7511 on: March 09, 2011, 04:30:26 pm »

PPP : Obama approval: 43/52
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7512 on: March 09, 2011, 04:35:06 pm »
« Edited: March 09, 2011, 08:14:30 pm by pbrower2a »

Missouri, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_0309424.pdf

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Basically the Republicans nominate Mike Huckabee or risk losing  Missouri, which they dare not do.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   79
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   79
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  







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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #7513 on: March 09, 2011, 11:31:18 pm »

Basically the Republicans nominate Mike Huckabee or risk losing  Missouri, which they dare not do.
What a strange way of interpreting this poll. I like the optimism though!
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« Reply #7514 on: March 10, 2011, 12:15:41 am »

Basically the Republicans nominate Mike Huckabee or risk losing  Missouri, which they dare not do.
What a strange way of interpreting this poll. I like the optimism though!

Analysis isn't really his strong suit -- snicker, snicker!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7515 on: March 10, 2011, 03:08:43 am »

Basically the Republicans nominate Mike Huckabee or risk losing  Missouri, which they dare not do.
What a strange way of interpreting this poll. I like the optimism though!

So far I see the GOP nominee for President losing like John McCain if the candidate is Huckabee or perhaps Romney. Palin? Landslide loss. She loses Arizona, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Tennessee -- states that weren't close in 2008. Oh, yes, Georgia and Missouri, which were close.

The states shaded in green in the bottom map are those in which someone loses to President Obama. It is possible for him to win some states if his approval rating in that state is 42% -- if the GOP nominates the 'wrong' candidate'.  In every state in which the President has an approval rating of at least 46% he wins against everyone.

In Missouri, Romney and Obama are in a virtual tie and Gingrich and Obama tie. Huckabee would win decisively. 

Who runs matters greatly.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7516 on: March 10, 2011, 12:17:38 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, u.

Disapprove 52%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%,  u.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7517 on: March 10, 2011, 01:41:15 pm »

Bloomberg Poll:

51% Approve
43% Disapprove

Gallup:

47% Approve
45% Disapprove
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« Reply #7518 on: March 10, 2011, 03:40:54 pm »

It's odd that Gallup and Rasmusen always have almost exactly the same approvals, but Obama's dissaprovals are around 7 points higher on Rasmusen. 
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Dgov
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« Reply #7519 on: March 11, 2011, 01:41:23 am »

It's odd that Gallup and Rasmusen always have almost exactly the same approvals, but Obama's dissaprovals are around 7 points higher on Rasmusen. 

I think someone did a study and found that asking for "Strongly Disapprove vs Regular Disapprove" tends to push more people to give an opinion (as they can mentally contrast themselves with the "stronger" option if they only feel weakly about a candidate).

The Reason their approvals wind up the same however is because Ras tests a generally more Republican group, which pushes their sample a few points more Republican.  Those two effects would probably cancel for Obama's approval numbers, but stack for his disapproval numbers.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7520 on: March 11, 2011, 09:37:13 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%,  u.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7521 on: March 12, 2011, 12:21:44 pm »
« Edited: March 13, 2011, 08:51:43 am by J. J. »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

(Correcting the Strongly Disapprove number.)
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J. J.
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« Reply #7522 on: March 13, 2011, 08:49:40 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%,  +2.

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J. J.
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« Reply #7523 on: March 14, 2011, 08:41:56 am »
« Edited: March 15, 2011, 12:27:44 am by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%,  +1.

It could be an over anti-Obama sample; if so, it should be out in the next three days.  There does appear some slight erosion in Obama's numbers.

Corrected
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« Reply #7524 on: March 14, 2011, 05:08:32 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%,  +1.

It could be an over anti-Obama sample; if so, it should be out in the next three days.  There does appear some slight erosion in Obama's numbers.



101%?Huh
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