The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1085343 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #7300 on: February 04, 2011, 02:05:18 PM »


Gallup is also down to 46-46 today.

Don't know what caused the fall, maybe Egypt or something else ?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7301 on: February 04, 2011, 02:09:03 PM »

Maybe his terrible SOTU address.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7302 on: February 04, 2011, 02:10:36 PM »


Not really, his numbers remained high through the weekend and most people should have formed an opinion about the SOTU speech by then. Besides the speech was seen widely positive. It must have been something after that.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7303 on: February 04, 2011, 02:32:46 PM »

How about we wait a few days before jumping to conclusions?
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Penelope
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« Reply #7304 on: February 04, 2011, 03:32:55 PM »

How about we wait a few days before jumping to conclusions?

Agreed. In Gallup, it's about a four point drop. Not that much, and it could be anything. Seeing how no large event has occured in the US in the past 5 days, I doubt the President's numbers are on a downward trajectory.

People know about Egypt, but that is not enough to change their opinions on the President entirely. Most likely, a few more people who are concerned about the situation in Egypt, who generally support the President, are uneasy and replied "Not Sure". 
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #7305 on: February 04, 2011, 03:42:53 PM »

If it was just Gallup or just Rasmussen I would dismiss this as a blip, but with both dipping sharply at the same time makes it appear that something is going on. The only major event has been Egypt, but it is hard to see how anything he has done regarding Egypt. It would be interesting to see inside the numbers to see if the dip is more with one group or another.  It could be that some republicans and right leaning indies that started moving towards him after lame duck, Tuscon speech and SOTU have been freaked out by fears of Egypt turning into another Iran, which seems to be all they talk about on FOX these days.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7306 on: February 04, 2011, 04:09:39 PM »

If this is real movement, it is certainly because of Egypt.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #7307 on: February 04, 2011, 06:12:57 PM »

I was trying to say that Obama's disapproval numbers (53%) didn't change, and JJ said they fell 2%.
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Sbane
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« Reply #7308 on: February 04, 2011, 06:36:46 PM »

He has handled Egypt pretty well up to now, so I don't see why his numbers would slide due to it. I guess Americans just like interventionist foreign policy. Roll Eyes
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7309 on: February 04, 2011, 06:44:21 PM »

He has handled Egypt pretty well up to now, so I don't see why his numbers would slide due to it. I guess Americans just like interventionist foreign policy. Roll Eyes

It's one of those situations of a no win situation for any President.


Also, Obama has a penchant for losing ground whenever a foreign crisis erupts going back to the Georgia invasion by Russia.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7310 on: February 04, 2011, 07:08:04 PM »

He has handled Egypt pretty well up to now, so I don't see why his numbers would slide due to it. I guess Americans just like interventionist foreign policy. Roll Eyes

It's one of those situations of a no win situation for any President.


Also, Obama has a penchant for losing ground whenever a foreign crisis erupts going back to the Georgia invasion by Russia.

The Georgia invasion was during the Bush administration. (mid-2008)

Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent.  That being said, if this is a change in approval of Obama, it happened when the major event was Mubarek/Army pushback and Obama's open call for regime change in Egypt.  Not that this is any proof of any change, of course.  Got to wait a couple of weeks.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7311 on: February 04, 2011, 07:13:02 PM »

He has handled Egypt pretty well up to now, so I don't see why his numbers would slide due to it. I guess Americans just like interventionist foreign policy. Roll Eyes

It's one of those situations of a no win situation for any President.


Also, Obama has a penchant for losing ground whenever a foreign crisis erupts going back to the Georgia invasion by Russia.

The Georgia invasion was during the Bush administration. (mid-2008)

Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent.  That being said, if this is a change in approval of Obama, it happened when the major event was Mubarek/Army pushback and Obama's open call for regime change in Egypt.  Not that this is any proof of any change, of course.  Got to wait a couple of weeks.

Really, No sh**t.  Notice I said "lose ground". I didn't say what he lost ground in. Roll Eyes

Actually there may be a trend of this going back to Musharaff's ouster in Pakistan in around the end of 2007/early 2008.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7312 on: February 04, 2011, 07:52:02 PM »


Sorry, the Disapproved numbers were unchanged.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7313 on: February 04, 2011, 07:56:16 PM »


Gallup is also down to 46-46 today.

Don't know what caused the fall, maybe Egypt or something else ?

Or the related subject of gas prices?

On Rasmussen, it could be be a blip, but the strongly disapprove numbers have been rising.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7314 on: February 04, 2011, 08:15:37 PM »

Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent. 

Yeah, just imagine if there was an experienced grown-up at the White House during these difficult times.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-zoPgv_nYg
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Sbane
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« Reply #7315 on: February 04, 2011, 09:15:59 PM »


Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent. 

Crushing the protests wouldn't have been competent. Especially since we were cool with the one in Tunisia. That would not look good.
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Penelope
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« Reply #7316 on: February 04, 2011, 09:36:05 PM »


Gallup is also down to 46-46 today.

Don't know what caused the fall, maybe Egypt or something else ?

Or the related subject of gas prices?

On Rasmussen, it could be be a blip, but the strongly disapprove numbers have been rising.

Rasmussen, at 53% Dissaproval, is likely a blip, and seems to be polling 2-3% lower for the President than other pollsters.

Really, since the majority of Americans probably don't even know or care about the Egyptian Crisis, I highly doubt his approval is taking a major dip because of it. Moreso, as I said earlier, it's likely because of a few of his supporters getting uneasy about the crisis and answering "Not Sure", which would explain Gallup's 46-46 today.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7317 on: February 04, 2011, 11:02:32 PM »

Spade is such a realist.
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« Reply #7318 on: February 04, 2011, 11:31:14 PM »

I honestly can't think of anything in particular about Obama's handling of the Egypt situation that would cause a drop in approval, one reason why I'm sceptical of these signifying something other than a blip.
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Dgov
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« Reply #7319 on: February 04, 2011, 11:40:56 PM »

I honestly can't think of anything in particular about Obama's handling of the Egypt situation that would cause a drop in approval, one reason why I'm sceptical of these signifying something other than a blip.

It might a temporary boost fading.  He didn't really do anything significant that would have raised his numbers in the first place (despite giving a mediocre SOTU speech), so it be that he just got a moderate, temporary bump in approval after the New Year elections and it's sliding back into more "normal" territory for him.

But i agree with you that we need to wait before this can be called official movement.
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Penelope
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« Reply #7320 on: February 05, 2011, 12:23:13 AM »

I honestly can't think of anything in particular about Obama's handling of the Egypt situation that would cause a drop in approval, one reason why I'm sceptical of these signifying something other than a blip.

It might a temporary boost fading.  He didn't really do anything significant that would have raised his numbers in the first place (despite giving a mediocre SOTU speech), so it be that he just got a moderate, temporary bump in approval after the New Year elections and it's sliding back into more "normal" territory for him.

But i agree with you that we need to wait before this can be called official movement.

Guys, his approval range is going to change a bit soon. It's got to go up or down at some point.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7321 on: February 05, 2011, 01:34:28 AM »

He has handled Egypt pretty well up to now, so I don't see why his numbers would slide due to it. I guess Americans just like interventionist foreign policy. Roll Eyes

It's one of those situations of a no win situation for any President.


Also, Obama has a penchant for losing ground whenever a foreign crisis erupts going back to the Georgia invasion by Russia.

The Georgia invasion was during the Bush administration. (mid-2008)

Also, Obama's handling of Egypt has been beyond incompetent.  That being said, if this is a change in approval of Obama, it happened when the major event was Mubarek/Army pushback and Obama's open call for regime change in Egypt.  Not that this is any proof of any change, of course.  Got to wait a couple of weeks.

It's hard to intervene  in a revolution and not get burned badly. Incompetent? What, really, can the President do? Whose side does the US government want to take? Even if the US had troops in Egypt, this would be "stay in your barracks" time.

Regime change is a certainty in Egypt. The question is whether moderates or anti-American interests predominate. Hosni Mubarak is beyond any possibility of propping up.

So far there seems to be little anti-Americanism. This isn't Iran in 1979.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7322 on: February 05, 2011, 02:02:40 AM »

GA Insight 20/20:

47% Obama
43% Palin

50% Romney
44% Obama

50% Huckabee
45% Obama

47% Gingrich
45% Obama

...

2008 vote:

50% McCain
42% Obama

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0B_KEK8-LWmzhOGM5OTQzNDMtNjdjZC00OWZlLThlMTgtZDFjM2JjN2Q2OWM1&hl=en&pli=1

Pollster with some promise.

Unfortunately this poll asks for an approval rating ranging from 1 (very poor) to 5 (very good), which does not boil down to an "Approve/Disapprove" response very easily. Ratings tend either toward "1" or "5", as the demographics of Georgia might suggest. if you ignore the "3" category as an indistinguishable middle, the results probably boil down to  42-50, which is about what I would guess for now.

Georgia looks as if it would vote roughly as it did in 2008, barring major changes in basic realities in America between now and November 2012. But I am putting an "S" on Georgia because the results are not so clearly translated into "approve/disapprove".

Huckabee and Romney would win by single-digit margins, and Gingrich by only a narrow margin. Sarah Palin is becoming a sick political joke; she loses about as Huckabee or Romney would win.  Gingrich does weakly enough in his home state that I can only wonder whether he would fare well in some Southern states not already polled. 




 




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 53
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 109
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 55
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 39
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7323 on: February 05, 2011, 10:45:21 AM »

So what do you think of the "1-2-3-4-5" poll by Insight 20/20 ? It seems better than the "EGFP" polls that we have seen. Do you think my tentative interpretation of this new pollster useful -- that one can interpret (if such is explained) that

1 - very poor/strong disapprove
2 - substandard/disapprove
3 - middling and likely undecided
4 - good/approve
5 - very good/strongly approve

with categories "1" and "2" as "total disapprove" and "4" and "5" as total approve" with category "3" as effectively undecided?

(It is possible that someone could offer a similar poll with inverse instructions, so be careful.)
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J. J.
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« Reply #7324 on: February 05, 2011, 10:53:29 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, u.

That strongly disapprove number is staying up.  It is too early to tell about strongly approved.

If this isn't a blip, it is interesting.  The number of people that basically hate Obama is growing, while the number that love him is dwindling.  That is not polarization.  
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