The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 02, 2021, 11:59:59 AM
News: EV Calculator updated with new apportionment numbers, custom labels, orange party color and more. Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 286 287 288 289 290 [291] 292 293 294 295 296 ... 410
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1082599 times)
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,766
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7250 on: January 27, 2011, 01:54:25 AM »


I love the ridiculous overreactions in this thread.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,540
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7251 on: January 27, 2011, 11:42:59 AM »

Oh wow, Obama is at 50% on Rasmussen he's doing terribly! /sarcasm.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,397
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7252 on: January 27, 2011, 01:16:51 PM »
« Edited: January 27, 2011, 01:19:53 PM by MagneticFree »

Yay, lets all worship Obama likes he's the best savior like god. He will save the US from armageddon. Not...
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,102
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7253 on: January 27, 2011, 01:41:09 PM »

West Virginia will not be reverting to its pre-2000 norm of voting for a Democratic nominee for President  unless things change drastically. Barack Obama remains at the least the wrong sort of Democrat to win West Virginia.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WV_0127.pdf

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

The likely reason behind President Obama not winning over the hearts and minds of West Virginians:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3               
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 79
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   86
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 33
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   14




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                 
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 79
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   90
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 29
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  14  



Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,766
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7254 on: January 27, 2011, 02:04:56 PM »
« Edited: January 28, 2011, 06:34:11 AM by Eraserhead »

Wow, he even loses by 4% to Palin in WV. I guess WV won't vote for a black man under any circumstances!
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,115
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7255 on: January 27, 2011, 02:17:29 PM »

Oregon (SurveyUSA): 51-45

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=87dabdb7-5435-402e-891e-11b3bf475127

New York (Quinnipiac): 53-40

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1553
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,102
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7256 on: January 27, 2011, 02:55:52 PM »


Both make sense. SurveyUSA may still be a bit low for Oregon, so it might still be 'provisional'.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3               
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 108
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   14




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                 
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 108
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 26
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  14  



Logged
riceowl
riceowl315
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,031


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7257 on: January 27, 2011, 03:09:26 PM »

is today's rasmussen really 47/51?  where is it??!!?!?
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7258 on: January 27, 2011, 07:29:41 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -3.

Disapprove 51%, +3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, +2.

It could be a bad sample.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7259 on: January 28, 2011, 09:39:28 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -1.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,115
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7260 on: January 29, 2011, 01:47:08 AM »

NY (Marist):

53% Excellent/Good
47% Fair/Poor

This survey of 751 New York State registered voters was conducted on January 24th through January 26th, 2011. Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its turnout in comparable elections. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within 4.0 percentage points.

http://content.ny1.com/downloads/gillibrand_poll.pdf
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,524
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7261 on: January 29, 2011, 01:38:23 PM »

Incorporating Fair and Poor in the same category is very odd. I'd give the President a "fair" job, and I still think he's doing better than any Republican in next year's field would.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7262 on: January 29, 2011, 03:03:17 PM »
« Edited: January 30, 2011, 09:17:36 AM by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 49%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -1.

Probably the last day of a bad Obama sample.

Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,766
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7263 on: January 30, 2011, 12:07:47 AM »

NY (Marist):

53% Excellent/Good
47% Fair/Poor

This survey of 751 New York State registered voters was conducted on January 24th through January 26th, 2011. Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its turnout in comparable elections. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within 4.0 percentage points.

http://content.ny1.com/downloads/gillibrand_poll.pdf

Umm no.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,115
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7264 on: January 30, 2011, 01:31:09 AM »

NY (Marist):

53% Excellent/Good
47% Fair/Poor

This survey of 751 New York State registered voters was conducted on January 24th through January 26th, 2011. Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its turnout in comparable elections. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within 4.0 percentage points.

http://content.ny1.com/downloads/gillibrand_poll.pdf

Umm no.

Excellent/Good always tends to show slightly lower values than Approve/Disapprove.

It probably means that Obama is somewhere between 55-60% approval in NY.
Logged
izixs
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,223
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.31, S: -6.51

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7265 on: January 30, 2011, 02:41:39 AM »

Tis different meanings for what fair means for folks. For some, compared to the other more positive options, it means bad but not horrible. To others, good and fair are interchangeable. And to others, Good and Excellent are almost the same so fair is the middle ground of default.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,766
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7266 on: January 30, 2011, 05:26:16 AM »

NY (Marist):

53% Excellent/Good
47% Fair/Poor

This survey of 751 New York State registered voters was conducted on January 24th through January 26th, 2011. Registered voters were interviewed by telephone in proportion to the voter registration in each county in New York and adjusted for turnout in statewide elections. Telephone numbers were selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its turnout in comparable elections. To increase coverage, this land-line sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers. The two samples were then combined. Results are statistically significant within 4.0 percentage points.

http://content.ny1.com/downloads/gillibrand_poll.pdf

Umm no.

Excellent/Good always tends to show slightly lower values than Approve/Disapprove.

It probably means that Obama is somewhere between 55-60% approval in NY.

I realize that but it still looks pretty low to me.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,880
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7267 on: January 30, 2011, 05:30:21 AM »

"Fair."  I've said this before, and will say it again:  I think a lot of people do not realize that "Fair" is considered a bad thing.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7268 on: January 30, 2011, 09:20:24 AM »

"Fair."  I've said this before, and will say it again:  I think a lot of people do not realize that "Fair" is considered a bad thing.

It might be considered more neutral out of those ratings.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7269 on: January 30, 2011, 10:37:59 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 48%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.

A bad Obama sample dropped off.

There was no SOTU bounce.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,540
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7270 on: January 30, 2011, 12:28:16 PM »

"Fair."  I've said this before, and will say it again:  I think a lot of people do not realize that "Fair" is considered a bad thing.
Wait, "fair" is considered bad?
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,430
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7271 on: January 30, 2011, 01:51:26 PM »

SOTU bumps aren't actually a thing. Really Obama had as much of a chance of going down and he did going up after the speech:

Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,488
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7272 on: January 30, 2011, 10:34:31 PM »

"Fair."  I've said this before, and will say it again:  I think a lot of people do not realize that "Fair" is considered a bad thing.
Wait, "fair" is considered bad?

     My reaction as well. I've always wondered how some pollsters got the idea that using Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor for ratings was anything other than a terrible idea.
Logged
The Daily Beagle
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,208
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7273 on: January 30, 2011, 10:48:02 PM »

Generally, I think "fair" means neither good nor bad.
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,342
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7274 on: January 30, 2011, 11:06:32 PM »

SOTU bumps aren't actually a thing. Really Obama had as much of a chance of going down and he did going up after the speech:



What did Clinton do to jump 10 points?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 286 287 288 289 290 [291] 292 293 294 295 296 ... 410  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.253 seconds with 10 queries.