The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 02, 2021, 09:37:56 AM
News: EV Calculator updated with new apportionment numbers, custom labels, orange party color and more. Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 285 286 287 288 289 [290] 291 292 293 294 295 ... 410
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1082527 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,115
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7225 on: January 25, 2011, 01:41:59 AM »

Wow. Rasmussen with 52-47 approval ? Too good to be true ... Wink

Maybe they are pushing Obama's numbers up before the SOTU speech, so that they can show later that he got no bump out of the speech ... Tongue

Or it's real movement in favor of Obama ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,115
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7226 on: January 25, 2011, 02:07:12 AM »

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation:

55% Approve
44% Disapprove

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/01/24/rel2a.pdf

There is also a new Maryland poll out today by Gonzales Research with Obama approvals included I guess. We already have Gov. O'Malley's (D) approvals, but the release is not on their site yet, so no Obama numbers yet. I'll post them when I find them:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,115
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7227 on: January 25, 2011, 02:21:24 AM »

PPP/DailyKos still finds something very different in their latest weekly poll:

46% Approve
48% Disapprove

50% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

Public Policy Polling, 1001 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, Jan 20, 2011 - Jan 23, 2011.

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/1/20
Logged
Clamdick McClaw
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7228 on: January 25, 2011, 10:38:57 AM »

PPP/DailyKos still finds something very different in their latest weekly poll:

46% Approve
48% Disapprove

50% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

Public Policy Polling, 1001 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, Jan 20, 2011 - Jan 23, 2011.

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/1/20

Never thought I'd see the day when PPP was giving Obama his lowest approvals : P
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7229 on: January 25, 2011, 10:40:21 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 52%, u.

Disapprove 47%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, u.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7230 on: January 25, 2011, 10:41:46 AM »

PPP/DailyKos still finds something very different in their latest weekly poll:

46% Approve
48% Disapprove

50% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

Public Policy Polling, 1001 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, Jan 20, 2011 - Jan 23, 2011.

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/1/20

Never thought I'd see the day when PPP was giving Obama his lowest approvals : P

How was PPP during the election?
Logged
The Daily Beagle
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,208
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7231 on: January 25, 2011, 11:31:03 AM »

52-47/55/44? So, Obama is basicall back to where he started on election night.
Logged
Clamdick McClaw
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7232 on: January 25, 2011, 01:36:52 PM »

PPP/DailyKos still finds something very different in their latest weekly poll:

46% Approve
48% Disapprove

50% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

Public Policy Polling, 1001 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, Jan 20, 2011 - Jan 23, 2011.

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/1/20

Never thought I'd see the day when PPP was giving Obama his lowest approvals : P

How was PPP during the election?

They were actually quite good... but identified as a Democratic polling firm and always had the Obama MOV a little higher than a lot of other pollsters. 

Can't seem to find Nate Silver's compiled averages on fivethirtyeight.com anymore. 
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,115
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7233 on: January 25, 2011, 01:45:13 PM »

PPP/DailyKos still finds something very different in their latest weekly poll:

46% Approve
48% Disapprove

50% Favorable
45% Unfavorable

Public Policy Polling, 1001 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, Jan 20, 2011 - Jan 23, 2011.

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/1/20

Never thought I'd see the day when PPP was giving Obama his lowest approvals : P

How was PPP during the election?

They had a slight Republican bias in the 2010 elections:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
Logged
Oakvale
oakvale
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,724
Ireland, Republic of
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7234 on: January 25, 2011, 01:51:39 PM »

Bizzare to see "Elaine Marshall's pimp" being the outlier.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,101
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7235 on: January 25, 2011, 02:19:54 PM »

If you want to see an analogue for an incumbent winning 55% or so of the vote, then look to FDR winning his third term.

FDR won 54.74% of the popular vote and 84.6% of the electoral vote. Willkie won 44.78% of the popular vote and 15.4% of the electoral vote, which would result in roughly a 455 - 83 split of the electoral vote with 538 electoral votes to split.

 

  
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,115
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7236 on: January 25, 2011, 02:24:44 PM »


Maryland (Gonzales Research):

54% (+2) Approve
40%  (-3) Disapprove

...

By party, 77% of Democrats approve of the job Obama is doing, while 85% of Republicans disapprove. With independents, 50% approve and 45% disapprove. Among African-American voters in the state, 90% approve of the job President Obama is doing.

...

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from January 13th through January 19th, 2011. A total of 802 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He began his career as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling.

Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland since the mid 1980’s. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

http://www.wbaltv.com/pdf/26601114/detail.html
Logged
The Daily Beagle
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,208
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7237 on: January 25, 2011, 02:25:57 PM »

In 2012, I am guessing if Obama did two better and got to 54.65%, he would probably win Missouri, Montana and MAYBE Georgia. The Dakotas and Arizona may swing, too...but that would be unlikely. It would be pretty funny to ask someone about South Dakota the following morning.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,115
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7238 on: January 25, 2011, 02:28:41 PM »

In 2012, I am guessing if Obama did two better and got to 54.65%, he would probably win Missouri, Montana and MAYBE Georgia. The Dakotas and Arizona may swing, too...but that would be unlikely. It would be pretty funny to ask someone about South Dakota the following morning.

Montana that close in 2008 was pretty much a fluke I think and it helped Obama that Ron Paul was on the ballot. I think it will trend away from Obama again in 2012 as PPP indicated with their Montana poll a month ago or so.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,101
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7239 on: January 25, 2011, 02:44:04 PM »

Obama, 49-47, North Carolina, PPP.  It looks as if 2012 is going to be a disaster for the GOP in the Presidential race, and it has nothing to do with the Mayan calendar.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_0125925.pdf

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.


...Sarah Palin's star is fading fast:
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Maryland --  No big surprise there. Obama would win this state in a landslide.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

PPP gave a poll involving new WV Senator Joe Manchin, whose approval rating is 52%. That poll asked nothing about President Obama. Republicans will have BIG problems downticket in states other than West Virginia if they can't hold West Virginia in the Presidential election. PPP so far says that President Obama's chances of winning West Virginia are "very dim", but it has no poll on the President there.





 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3               
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 79
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   86
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 33
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   9




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                 
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 79
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   90
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 29
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  9  


Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,115
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7240 on: January 25, 2011, 02:50:31 PM »

SurveyUSA, Mid-January:

California: 51-45

Kansas: 33-63

Washington: 41-57 (LOL)
Logged
The Daily Beagle
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,208
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7241 on: January 25, 2011, 02:52:54 PM »

In 2012, I am guessing if Obama did two better and got to 54.65%, he would probably win Missouri, Montana and MAYBE Georgia. The Dakotas and Arizona may swing, too...but that would be unlikely. It would be pretty funny to ask someone about South Dakota the following morning.

Montana that close in 2008 was pretty much a fluke I think and it helped Obama that Ron Paul was on the ballot. I think it will trend away from Obama again in 2012 as PPP indicated with their Montana poll a month ago or so.

I'm guessing that Obama will instead move in on states that are beginning to be open to voting for him? He's kinda unpopular in Texas, but there seems to be an openness to vote for him. I also wonder what's happening in Arizona and Georgia. Missouri looks better for him, too.  What's interesting is is that though so my EVs have trended to the GOP, the Democratcs  are simply making up for it by moving after them.


SurveyUSA, Mid-January:

California: 51-45

Kansas: 33-63

Washington: 41-57 (LOL)

Fail.   Maybe if he was behind like 10 in the polls and was off to a Carter-like defeat. That's the Republican wet dream, isn't it?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,115
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7242 on: January 25, 2011, 02:58:13 PM »

In 2012, I am guessing if Obama did two better and got to 54.65%, he would probably win Missouri, Montana and MAYBE Georgia. The Dakotas and Arizona may swing, too...but that would be unlikely. It would be pretty funny to ask someone about South Dakota the following morning.

Montana that close in 2008 was pretty much a fluke I think and it helped Obama that Ron Paul was on the ballot. I think it will trend away from Obama again in 2012 as PPP indicated with their Montana poll a month ago or so.

I'm guessing that Obama will instead move in on states that are beginning to be open to voting for him? He's kinda unpopular in Texas, but there seems to be an openness to vote for him. I also wonder what's happening in Arizona and Georgia. Missouri looks better for him, too.  What's interesting is is that though so my EVs have trended to the GOP, the Democratcs  are simply making up for it by moving after them.


SurveyUSA, Mid-January:

California: 51-45

Kansas: 33-63

Washington: 41-57 (LOL)

Fail.   Maybe if he was behind like 10 in the polls and was off to a Carter-like defeat. That's the Republican wet dream, isn't it?

Yeah. Normally, SUSA's general election polls are very good, but their state approval polls are an abysmal failure.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,397
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7243 on: January 25, 2011, 11:43:01 PM »

Oh well, whatever the polls are regardless of PPP or Rasmussen, gotta put it on the 2012 map, that includes Washington.

It's irony how you guys favor PPP (a Dem leaning polster) over the others.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,101
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7244 on: January 26, 2011, 12:30:24 AM »

Oh well, whatever the polls are regardless of PPP or Rasmussen, gotta put it on the 2012 map, that includes Washington.

It's irony how you guys favor PPP (a Dem leaning polster) over the others.

Rasmussen hasn't given any statewide polls lately, so we can hardly exclude those. I quit using them when those were available only on a subscription basis. That's the only reason for rejecting then -- because I am a cheapskate and I am not in the business. 

PPP has lately offered more statewide polls than anyone else. Of course I have included Quinnipiac.

As a rule, I reject pollsters who lack independence or consistently offer suspect results. Someone polling for a political party, a union, a trade association, fringe media or groups, or a 527 group like  American Crossroads is unlikely to get an unbiased result. As I have shown, I would reject a poll that shows 65% approval for the President in Oklahoma or 35% approval for the President in Vermont when nationwide polls suggest 50% is suspect. Would you trust a poll from the NAACP or NARAL? 

SurveyUSA has shown such off-the-wall results that I see no cause to believe them.

Rasmussen has shown nationwide approval and disapproval very consistently. 
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,163
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7245 on: January 26, 2011, 02:55:30 AM »

As a rule, I reject pollsters who lack independence or consistently offer suspect results. Someone polling for a political party, a union, a trade association, fringe media or groups, or a 527 group like  American Crossroads is unlikely to get an unbiased result. As I have shown, I would reject a poll that shows 65% approval for the President in Oklahoma or 35% approval for the President in Vermont when nationwide polls suggest 50% is suspect. Would you trust a poll from the NAACP or NARAL? 

What about someone who does polling for a left wing blog (PPP for Daily Kos) or someone who has done polling for Fox News (Rasmussen)?  At one point, you were explicitly excluding Fox polls:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=91754.6270
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,101
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7246 on: January 26, 2011, 04:18:34 AM »
« Edited: January 26, 2011, 11:17:54 AM by pbrower2a »

As a rule, I reject pollsters who lack independence or consistently offer suspect results. Someone polling for a political party, a union, a trade association, fringe media or groups, or a 527 group like  American Crossroads is unlikely to get an unbiased result. As I have shown, I would reject a poll that shows 65% approval for the President in Oklahoma or 35% approval for the President in Vermont when nationwide polls suggest 50% is suspect. Would you trust a poll from the NAACP or NARAL?

What about someone who does polling for a left wing blog (PPP for Daily Kos) or someone who has done polling for Fox News (Rasmussen)?  At one point, you were explicitly excluding Fox polls:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=91754.6270


"Has done" is excused unless one has evidence of plagiarism or fabrication (which was exposed with an entity known as Strategic Vision that was operating out of a strip mall far from any city and whose ownership could say little about itself. "Is doing" might not be so reliable.

In 2008, FoX actually had a reliable pollster (Opinion Dynamics) which usually got things right. Rasmussen did the polls that FoX sought to push the agenda.

Rasmussen was OK when independent. The difference between Rasmussen and other pollsters is is that Rasmussen uses a "likely voters" screen that tends to favor Republicans. It tends to underestimate youth vote in a Presidential election.

Daily Kos had one pollster that was giving mid-50s ratings for the President when everyone else was giving approvals in the forties. Daily Kos quit using that pollster after finding some questionable methodology.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,912
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7247 on: January 26, 2011, 11:03:23 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, -2.

Disapprove 48%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +2.

Please note that these are pres SOTU numbers.
Logged
America™
All For America
Rookie
**
Posts: 81
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7248 on: January 26, 2011, 04:23:22 PM »

And the Tucson jump is over.
Logged
Citizen (The) Doctor
ArchangelZero
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,341
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7249 on: January 26, 2011, 05:55:17 PM »


Still, not being in the negatives is a good sign.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 285 286 287 288 289 [290] 291 292 293 294 295 ... 410  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.17 seconds with 13 queries.