The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7200 on: January 22, 2011, 12:58:00 AM »

Wierd how Texas is in the same category as Ohio...

It's not. pbrower forgot to include this in his map:

We also have a Quinnipiac Ohio poll:

49% (+4) Approve
46%  (-3) Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1551
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7201 on: January 22, 2011, 01:08:01 AM »
« Edited: January 22, 2011, 01:10:52 AM by pbrower2a »

Wierd how Texas is in the same category as Ohio...

It's not. pbrower forgot to include this in his map:

We also have a Quinnipiac Ohio poll:

49% (+4) Approve
46%  (-3) Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1551


Almost as significantly, Senator Sherrod brown looks likely to win re-election.

I am glad to get it right this time. I missed the Q poll:

 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   71
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   9




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   75
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%44
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  49
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  9  

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J. J.
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« Reply #7202 on: January 22, 2011, 10:34:51 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 48%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

This particular number could be a bad sample, but there seems to be a general improvement in Obama's number beginning 1/7/11.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7203 on: January 22, 2011, 10:45:30 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 48%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

This particular number could be a bad sample, but there seems to be a general improvement in Obama's number beginning 1/7/11.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eyFiClAzq8
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #7204 on: January 22, 2011, 12:24:23 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 48%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

This particular number could be a bad sample, but there seems to be a general improvement in Obama's number beginning 1/7/11.

wow! incredible!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7205 on: January 22, 2011, 01:19:40 PM »

Gallup is 51-41 today (+1, -1).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7206 on: January 22, 2011, 02:58:04 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 48%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

This particular number could be a bad sample, but there seems to be a general improvement in Obama's number beginning 1/7/11.

Rasmussen tends to use a tougher (for Democrats) "likely voter" model than do other pollsters, so it isn't that inconsistent.  Rasmussen has been slow to recognize the uptick in support for the President, but the pollster catches on.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #7207 on: January 23, 2011, 12:30:25 AM »

His numbers may tick upwards, I won't deny that possibility....but I have a suspicious feeling the audience for his SOTU address will be pretty low by conventional standards.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7208 on: January 23, 2011, 12:46:27 AM »

His numbers may tick upwards, I won't deny that possibility....but I have a suspicious feeling the audience for his SOTU address will be pretty low by conventional standards.

Only four more days, and any such prediction will be obsolete irrespective of its effectiveness as a predictor. 
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7209 on: January 23, 2011, 02:03:06 AM »

The guy is really on the move. Heh. I still don't have much use for him but I am amused.

Those Texas numbers are interesting. They certainly fit into my theory of Huckabee being his toughest possible opponent out of the major four. Huckabee would cut through the south like a buzzsaw. The numbers for the other three are really quite dreadful.


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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7210 on: January 23, 2011, 02:10:47 AM »

The guy is really on the move. Heh. I still don't have much use for him but I am amused.

Those Texas numbers are interesting. They certainly fit into my theory of Huckabee being his toughest possible opponent out of the major four. Huckabee would cut through the south like a buzzsaw. The numbers for the other three are really quite dreadful.

I think Romney is the stronger candidate overall. At least he can make states like Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada competetive, Huckabee can't. The South isn't really important for winning the Presidency. Huckabee has also a proven weakness in raising a lot of money (as seen in 2007/2008), while Romney can do that more easily.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #7211 on: January 23, 2011, 07:19:57 AM »

Obamas approval numbers seem to be improving almost every day these days. Hopefully he can deliver a powerful SOTU speech to further improve his standing.
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Triangle Man
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« Reply #7212 on: January 23, 2011, 09:39:14 AM »

How did Oklahoma City help Clinton's approvals?
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #7213 on: January 23, 2011, 09:51:31 AM »

How did Oklahoma City help Clinton's approvals?
´
Quite a lot, as far as I remember.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7214 on: January 23, 2011, 10:02:53 AM »

Obama's approvals were on the upswing even before Tucson. You could say it was because of the lame duck successes but OTOH legislative productivity didn't have any positive effect on his numbers before the midterms.

I think the main reason is that suddenly people became more optimistic about the economy. But what happened that changed their perceptions so much? Jobs numbers are still mediocre and incomes are still stagnant. 
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Triangle Man
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« Reply #7215 on: January 23, 2011, 10:34:40 AM »

Obama's approvals were on the upswing even before Tucson. You could say it was because of the lame duck successes but OTOH legislative productivity didn't have any positive effect on his numbers before the midterms.

I think the main reason is that suddenly people became more optimistic about the economy. But what happened that changed their perceptions so much? Jobs numbers are still mediocre and incomes are still stagnant. 

Obviously the librul aborshun loving media....I'm actually half serious about this...well, maybe not quite half, but there could be more stories protraying him in a positive light.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7216 on: January 23, 2011, 10:37:05 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, .

Disapprove 49%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

As I said, there may have been a overly pro-Obama number in there, but Obana's numbers improved.

Obama's approvals were on the upswing even before Tucson. You could say it was because of the lame duck successes but OTOH legislative productivity didn't have any positive effect on his numbers before the midterms.

I think the main reason is that suddenly people became more optimistic about the economy. But what happened that changed their perceptions so much? Jobs numbers are still mediocre and incomes are still stagnant.  

Yes, late December there was an uptick, but it didn't hold.  This uptick has been there since 1/7/11, but the numbers were collected prior to the shooting.

Even by the midterms, Obama was off his summer lows (which I noted last fall).

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riceowl
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« Reply #7217 on: January 23, 2011, 10:59:41 AM »

OK, can someone explain to me what are the reasons behind Obama's spectacular rise?
It's not like something fundamental changed in a month or so to see his numbers surge so dramatically.

If basic reality has changed little -- the economy is still a mess, the Korean Peninsula remains a powderkeg, and we are still in combat in Afghanistan -- perceptions are changing. The flippant attitude that many Americans have toward some right-wing rhetoric is no more.

Time will show whether Americans accept some of the zanier statements and behavior of some elected Republicans. The more pragmatic GOP politicians will likely have no difficulty in winning re-election. The rest? They will have to be in ultra-safe districts.   

You're reading far too much into it. It's clearly the rally effect due to the shooting and his resulting speech. Maybe he can ride it into the next big news cycle and take momentum from it. If not, he's just going to level back out to where he was 3 weeks ago once the media move on to the next story.

And in any case, the majority of Americans think Conservatives were unfairly targeted for their rhetoric, so your theory holds no substance as is.

Gun control, long a third rail, can become a no-lose proposition for the President. Restoration of the assault-weapons ban? Ban on the massacre clips?

The State of the Union Address is on Wednesday night. 

Isn't it Tuesday?
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« Reply #7218 on: January 23, 2011, 12:03:22 PM »

Obama's approvals were on the upswing even before Tucson. You could say it was because of the lame duck successes but OTOH legislative productivity didn't have any positive effect on his numbers before the midterms.

I think the main reason is that suddenly people became more optimistic about the economy. But what happened that changed their perceptions so much? Jobs numbers are still mediocre and incomes are still stagnant. 
I fact, Gallup has his approval rating start to rise in the very begining of January.  People could be more optimistic because of the new year.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7219 on: January 23, 2011, 11:30:58 PM »

The guy is really on the move. Heh. I still don't have much use for him but I am amused.

Those Texas numbers are interesting. They certainly fit into my theory of Huckabee being his toughest possible opponent out of the major four. Huckabee would cut through the south like a buzzsaw. The numbers for the other three are really quite dreadful.

I think Romney is the stronger candidate overall. At least he can make states like Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada competetive, Huckabee can't. The South isn't really important for winning the Presidency. Huckabee has also a proven weakness in raising a lot of money (as seen in 2007/2008), while Romney can do that more easily.

Competitive? Maybe. But will he win them in the end? I don't think so. Those aren't exactly the most important states electorally speaking either... or at least they won't be unless the election is very close.

I think the South is still very important. The Republican has to win back Virginia, North Carolina and Florida or it's game over right off the bat. I see Huckabee having an easier time with that than Romney.

You're right about the money though. That is one major problem for Huckabee.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7220 on: January 24, 2011, 09:43:40 AM »
« Edited: January 24, 2011, 09:45:21 AM by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 52%, +2.

Disapprove 47%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -1.

This is the best Obama number since July of 2009.



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CultureKing
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« Reply #7221 on: January 24, 2011, 10:14:07 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 52%, +2.

Disapprove 47%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -1.

This is the best Obama number since July of 2009.





Democrats again adoring Obama after feeling 'betrayed'?
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #7222 on: January 24, 2011, 11:22:51 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 52%, +2.

Disapprove 47%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -1.

This is the best Obama number since July of 2009.





Democrats again adoring Obama after feeling 'betrayed'?

Perhaps people realize the end of the world didn't immediately follow implementation of Obama-backed policy?

Nah... I just think the overall mood of the country is a bit more optimistic right now due to the fact the economic and jobs situation have been moving in the right direction, albeit slowly.  Tucson and the chance to give an uplifting speech, something Obama is good at, didn't hurt his numbers, either. 

I stand by my prediction of 54% on Rasmussen after the SOTU tomorrow.   Probably the high 50s for most other pollsters. 

(is this really shocking?  This always happens with divided government)
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7223 on: January 24, 2011, 12:30:34 PM »

If this keeps up, maybe it will turn out that 2010 was about Pelosi and not Obama after all?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7224 on: January 24, 2011, 01:28:52 PM »

If this keeps up, maybe it will turn out that 2010 was about Pelosi and not Obama after all?

So it was. If the special interests who bought the most servile and illiberal House of Representatives ever had gone after president Obama, then they  would have had to wait two years for the effect to take place. The House of Representatives and the Senate were more available. So were state legislatures.

Those special interests wanted a Congress that would fulfill its dreams of an absolute plutocracy: one in which about every liberal challenge to the power of capitalists, big landowners, and executives was no more. These folks want child labor (why waste the athleticism of youth in school when you can have them working for pittances in mines, farms, and factories?) but they want all labor cheap (Abolish the minimum wage!) They want the most crooked ways of doing business  -- Mafia methods in the use of "respectable" people -- as the norm because such maximizes profits.   

We are beginning to see two of the scummiest years in American politics even without Dubya. We are also going to get the most powerful lesson in civics that we could ever get. We already have a governor who has suggested that it would be acceptable to confuse Martin Luther King Day with St. Patrick's Day (regrettably, MLK did not completely drive the snakes out of American political life, as demonstrated in 2010),  and one who told the NAACP that it could kiss his derriere. We had two Congressmen attend a fundraiser/party instead of getting sworn in.  We are going to see what terribly-flawed people do when they get power. We are going to see how government works when unelected lobbyists responsible only to the giant corporations that retain them achieve legislative power.
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