The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7175 on: January 20, 2011, 04:57:47 PM »

OK, can someone explain to me what are the reasons behind Obama's spectacular rise?
It's not like something fundamental changed in a month or so to see his numbers surge so dramatically.


Id love to hear Poundingtherock's take on this as well.

Let my try:

Elaine Marshall's pimp!
Bloomberg will split the godless liberal urban vote and Sarah Palin will be elected President with over 400 EV.
The Democrat Party is finished!
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America™
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« Reply #7176 on: January 20, 2011, 06:05:23 PM »

I give Obama a month until he hits 42% approval.
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memphis
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« Reply #7177 on: January 20, 2011, 06:06:39 PM »

OK, can someone explain to me what are the reasons behind Obama's spectacular rise?.

Sympathy bump after the Giffords shooting. OMGZ, I was upset and he gave a good speech!!11 I'm glad Obama's numbers are up, but it's just so damn stupid. Tragedies are goldmines for politicians.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #7178 on: January 20, 2011, 09:22:06 PM »

I give Obama a month until he hits 42% approval.
Maybe.  By Spring for sure.  And  then it will go back up...and down...and up...and down....
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7179 on: January 21, 2011, 01:59:36 AM »

Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R) for Resurgent Republic:

53% Approve
44% Disapprove

55% Favorable
41% Unfavorable

This survey of 1000 registered voters was conducted January 12-16, 2011. Respondents were selected randomly from a random-digit-dialing sample including both cell phone and landline telephone numbers. All respondents confirmed that they are registered to vote in the county in which they live. Quotas were set for state, age, and race based on state registration and previous turnout. The party balance for the registered voters in the sample is 34 percent Democrat, 32 percent Independent, and 28 percent Republican.

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/system/assets/353/original/RR_Jan_2011_Memo.pdf

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/system/assets/354/original/RR_Jan_2011_Toplines_012011.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7180 on: January 21, 2011, 02:23:47 AM »

NYT/CBS News Poll:

49% Approve
39% Disapprove

http://documents.nytimes.com/new-york-timescbs-news-poll-reducing-the-deficit?ref=politics
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Badger
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« Reply #7181 on: January 21, 2011, 02:30:40 AM »

Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R) for Resurgent Republic:

53% Approve
44% Disapprove

55% Favorable
41% Unfavorable

This survey of 1000 registered voters was conducted January 12-16, 2011. Respondents were selected randomly from a random-digit-dialing sample including both cell phone and landline telephone numbers. All respondents confirmed that they are registered to vote in the county in which they live. Quotas were set for state, age, and race based on state registration and previous turnout. The party balance for the registered voters in the sample is 34 percent Democrat, 32 percent Independent, and 28 percent Republican.

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/system/assets/353/original/RR_Jan_2011_Memo.pdf

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/system/assets/354/original/RR_Jan_2011_Toplines_012011.pdf

Pretty damn good numbers from a Republican pollster.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7182 on: January 21, 2011, 02:35:03 AM »


Pretty bad numbers from a pollster that leans Dem.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7183 on: January 21, 2011, 05:42:58 AM »

Oh Phil... you do crack me up sometimes.
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Sbane
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« Reply #7184 on: January 21, 2011, 08:03:04 AM »



+10 is bad.....you guys are getting pretty desperate.
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« Reply #7185 on: January 21, 2011, 08:26:35 AM »

NYT/CBS News Poll:

49% Approve
39% Disapprove

Is there a "painfully apathetic" option?
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #7186 on: January 21, 2011, 09:16:55 AM »

NYT/CBS News Poll:

49% Approve
39% Disapprove

Is there a "painfully apathetic" option?
If that option was included in polls I have a strong feeling it would get a solid majority everytime. Sad
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J. J.
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« Reply #7187 on: January 21, 2011, 10:07:35 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7188 on: January 21, 2011, 12:10:41 PM »

OK, can someone explain to me what are the reasons behind Obama's spectacular rise?
It's not like something fundamental changed in a month or so to see his numbers surge so dramatically.

If basic reality has changed little -- the economy is still a mess, the Korean Peninsula remains a powderkeg, and we are still in combat in Afghanistan -- perceptions are changing. The flippant attitude that many Americans have toward some right-wing rhetoric is no more.

Time will show whether Americans accept some of the zanier statements and behavior of some elected Republicans. The more pragmatic GOP politicians will likely have no difficulty in winning re-election. The rest? They will have to be in ultra-safe districts.   
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7189 on: January 21, 2011, 01:27:31 PM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

THE DELUGE IS COMING!!!
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7190 on: January 21, 2011, 02:50:59 PM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.
=O
Obama's breaking even?  On Rasmusen!

The end is nigh!!!
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7191 on: January 21, 2011, 02:57:44 PM »



Simply stating that the numbers seem too positive for the opposition from two polls that usually lean the other way.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #7192 on: January 21, 2011, 03:27:52 PM »

OK, can someone explain to me what are the reasons behind Obama's spectacular rise?
It's not like something fundamental changed in a month or so to see his numbers surge so dramatically.

If basic reality has changed little -- the economy is still a mess, the Korean Peninsula remains a powderkeg, and we are still in combat in Afghanistan -- perceptions are changing. The flippant attitude that many Americans have toward some right-wing rhetoric is no more.

Time will show whether Americans accept some of the zanier statements and behavior of some elected Republicans. The more pragmatic GOP politicians will likely have no difficulty in winning re-election. The rest? They will have to be in ultra-safe districts.  

You're reading far too much into it. It's clearly the rally effect due to the shooting and his resulting speech. Maybe he can ride it into the next big news cycle and take momentum from it. If not, he's just going to level back out to where he was 3 weeks ago once the media move on to the next story.

And in any case, the majority of Americans think Conservatives were unfairly targeted for their rhetoric, so your theory holds no substance as is.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7193 on: January 21, 2011, 03:56:20 PM »

OK, can someone explain to me what are the reasons behind Obama's spectacular rise?
It's not like something fundamental changed in a month or so to see his numbers surge so dramatically.

If basic reality has changed little -- the economy is still a mess, the Korean Peninsula remains a powderkeg, and we are still in combat in Afghanistan -- perceptions are changing. The flippant attitude that many Americans have toward some right-wing rhetoric is no more.

Time will show whether Americans accept some of the zanier statements and behavior of some elected Republicans. The more pragmatic GOP politicians will likely have no difficulty in winning re-election. The rest? They will have to be in ultra-safe districts.  

You're reading far too much into it. It's clearly the rally effect due to the shooting and his resulting speech. Maybe he can ride it into the next big news cycle and take momentum from it. If not, he's just going to level back out to where he was 3 weeks ago once the media move on to the next story.

And in any case, the majority of Americans think Conservatives were unfairly targeted for their rhetoric, so your theory holds no substance as is.

Gun control, long a third rail, can become a no-lose proposition for the President. Restoration of the assault-weapons ban? Ban on the massacre clips?

The State of the Union Address is on Wednesday night. 
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #7194 on: January 21, 2011, 04:06:54 PM »

Anyone want to take bets on the over/under after the State Of The Union Address?  I bet he gets to 54% on Rasmussen. 
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #7195 on: January 21, 2011, 04:53:20 PM »

The highest he will get to is 51% on Rasmussen. I don't think he will poll higher than that.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #7196 on: January 21, 2011, 06:45:23 PM »

Gun control, long a third rail, can become a no-lose proposition for the President. Restoration of the assault-weapons ban? Ban on the massacre clips?

The State of the Union Address is on Wednesday night. 

Obama waited far too long for gun control to be a no-lose proposition. We're well outside the Giffords news cycle by now.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7197 on: January 21, 2011, 08:20:37 PM »
« Edited: January 22, 2011, 01:00:39 AM by pbrower2a »

Much anticipated:


TEXAS


 http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TX_0120513.pdf

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January 14-16, 2011

...really, pretty good for President Obama in a state that he lost by 11.72% in 2008.

President Obama probably wins against Sarah Palin with at least 390 electoral votes even  without Texas (which is about what Clinton did) and about 440 with Texas.



 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   71
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   9




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   57
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%62
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  67
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  9  
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #7198 on: January 21, 2011, 08:39:33 PM »

PALIN FOR PRESIDENT!
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Icefire9
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« Reply #7199 on: January 21, 2011, 11:21:23 PM »

Wierd how Texas is in the same category as Ohio...
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