The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1082533 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #7150 on: January 18, 2011, 01:19:41 AM »

NY (Siena Research Institute)Sad

61% (+6) Favorable
36%  (-6) Unfavorable

50% (+7) Re-elect
40%  (-7) Prefer someone else

This SRI survey was conducted January 10-13, 2011 by telephone calls to 776 New York State registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/SNY%20January%2017%202011%20Poll%20Release%20FINAL.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7151 on: January 18, 2011, 08:04:51 AM »
« Edited: January 18, 2011, 08:07:13 AM by pbrower2a »

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Note the large gap between "approve" and "disapprove, but rules are rules in my map.  

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/oandm/

NY (Siena Research Institute)Sad

61% (+6) Favorable
36%  (-6) Unfavorable

50% (+7) Re-elect
40%  (-7) Prefer someone else

This SRI survey was conducted January 10-13, 2011 by telephone calls to 776 New York State registered voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/SNY%20January%2017%202011%20Poll%20Release%20FINAL.pdf

"Re-elect" is more specific than "favorable/unfavorable". Again, look at the huge number of undecided.
 



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   71
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   9




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   57
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%62
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  67
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  9  




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BlueSwan
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« Reply #7152 on: January 18, 2011, 08:41:42 AM »

So basically everybody except Rasmussen has Obama with positive national numbers now:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

That's a nice boost and he could well get a further boost if he delivers a strong State Of The Union speech. He might see his best numbers in more than a year.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7153 on: January 18, 2011, 08:51:20 AM »

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/18/cnn-poll-obamas-job-approval-rating-on-the-rise/

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http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-news-washington-post-poll-obama-approval-moves/story?id=12634581

Obama Approval Moves Ahead Though Challenges Remain
Obama's Job Approval Has Matched his Highest in More Than a Year

Aided by his response to the Tucson shootings, popular lame-duck legislation and a hint of economic relief, Barack Obama has matched his highest job approval rating in more than a year in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, with his ratings for empathy likewise rebounding.

It's a remarkable turnaround for a president so recently hammered in the 2010 midterm elections. Yet the public's mood remains glum, with attendant, continuing hazards for the president and Congress alike.

Fifty-four percent now approve of Obama's job performance, up 5 points from last month and 8 points above his career low in September. And given overwhelming approval of his response to the Tucson attack, Americans by an 18-point margin, 58-40 percent, say Obama "understands the problems of people like you." That's up from a mere 2-point split, 50-48 percent, in September. [/quote]

But for those who have hope in the success of the hard Right winning over America after four years of a "failed Presidency":

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http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/17/cheney-considering-heart-transplant/

My comment: We shall see who the one-term pols are (President, House of Representatives) in 2012.

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7154 on: January 18, 2011, 11:07:32 AM »

ABC News/Washington Post Poll: Obama back up to 54%

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-news-washington-post-poll-obama-approval-moves/story?id=12634581
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #7155 on: January 18, 2011, 12:09:47 PM »

CNN has his approval at 53%
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J. J.
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« Reply #7156 on: January 18, 2011, 01:05:10 PM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -1.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7157 on: January 18, 2011, 01:56:05 PM »

So basically everybody except Rasmussen has Obama with positive national numbers now:

"Elaine Marshall's pimp" has him at only 46-50 this week.

But he would defeat a generic Republican by 47-45.

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/1/14

PS: They will also release the monthly 2012 poll today and it will also have new approvals.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #7158 on: January 18, 2011, 02:49:07 PM »

I'm curious if Obama starts polling above 50 in the next few months if any of the presumed candidates will get cold feet and bail on a run.  I don't think you'll see any majors get in before mid-March.

I'm continuing to assume Palin and Huckabee won't say anything in the 1st half of 2011.  It'll also be curious to see how they continue to poll without announcing or campaigning.  Obama being over 50% for 6 months would probably keep Huck out and maybe Palin as her head-to-head gap would grow.

Any guesses?  I'd say the bigger the opportunity cost, the more likely to pass, like Pence or Huckabee.  And maybe someone like Thune or Daniels if they had mixed feelings to begin with.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #7159 on: January 18, 2011, 03:50:59 PM »

I'm curious if Obama starts polling above 50 in the next few months if any of the presumed candidates will get cold feet and bail on a run.  I don't think you'll see any majors get in before mid-March.

I'm continuing to assume Palin and Huckabee won't say anything in the 1st half of 2011.  It'll also be curious to see how they continue to poll without announcing or campaigning.  Obama being over 50% for 6 months would probably keep Huck out and maybe Palin as her head-to-head gap would grow.

Any guesses?  I'd say the bigger the opportunity cost, the more likely to pass, like Pence or Huckabee.  And maybe someone like Thune or Daniels if they had mixed feelings to begin with.
Agreed.  At this point, the only people I can think of that appear to be running no matter what are Romney, Pawlenty, Barbour, Santorum, and Johnson
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7160 on: January 19, 2011, 02:49:45 AM »

Michigan (EPIC-MRA):

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following political figures?

Barack Obama
Total Favorable: 51%
Total Unfavorable: 42%
Undecided: 8%

Rick Snyder
Total Favorable: 59%
Total Unfavorable: 9%
Undecided: 31%

Debbie Stabenow
Total Favorable: 48%
Total Unfavorable: 34%
Undecided: 15%

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President?

43% Positive
55% Negative
2% Undecided

Overall, how would you rate the job Rick Snyder has done so far as Michigan’s new Governor?

29% Positive
16% Negative
55% Undecided

The survey was conducted January 13 – 16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

http://www.wxyz.com/dpp/news/political/exclusive-poll%3A-rick-snyder-has-public-support-ahead-of-his-first-state-of-the-state-address
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7161 on: January 19, 2011, 09:29:36 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, nc.

Disapprove 51%, nc.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, nc.
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The Daily Beagle
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« Reply #7162 on: January 19, 2011, 09:32:03 AM »

Ask one way, and Obama will probably will handily in 2012, though probably have a little more trouble (55% will vote for him in MI and he will probably lose OH and IN but do ok in FL, PA and have VA come to the wire)...asked another, he may be lucky to carry anything outside of D.C.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7163 on: January 19, 2011, 09:40:25 AM »

I´m already interested if Obama's strong ratings @ Rasmussen will level after the SOTU speech.

It is -9 today and could be even better tomorrow if the bad sample from before drops out and the good samples continue.

Last year, he got a bump after the speech and his strong ratings were almost equal.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7164 on: January 19, 2011, 11:36:27 AM »

Michigan (EPIC-MRA):

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following political figures?

Barack Obama
Total Favorable: 51%
Total Unfavorable: 42%
Undecided: 8%

Rick Snyder
Total Favorable: 59%
Total Unfavorable: 9%
Undecided: 31%

Debbie Stabenow
Total Favorable: 48%
Total Unfavorable: 34%
Undecided: 15%

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President?

43% Positive
55% Negative
2% Undecided

Overall, how would you rate the job Rick Snyder has done so far as Michigan’s new Governor?

29% Positive
16% Negative
55% Undecided

The survey was conducted January 13 – 16 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

http://www.wxyz.com/dpp/news/political/exclusive-poll%3A-rick-snyder-has-public-support-ahead-of-his-first-state-of-the-state-address

So much for a Senate seat from Michigan being an easy pickup for the Reactionary Party. It would have been in 2010.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7165 on: January 20, 2011, 05:19:29 AM »

Wall Street Journal/NBC: 53%

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704590704576092273958557698.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7166 on: January 20, 2011, 01:55:53 PM »

Gallup is 51-42 (+2, -1) today, Rasmussen is 49-50 (+1, -1).

We also have a Quinnipiac Ohio poll:

49% (+4) Approve
46%  (-3) Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1551
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7167 on: January 20, 2011, 02:25:15 PM »

FOX News has:

47% (+7) Approve
44%  (-7) Disapprove

56% (+9) Favorable
40%  (-8) Unfavorable

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/poll1.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #7168 on: January 20, 2011, 04:06:46 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7169 on: January 20, 2011, 04:17:21 PM »

YouGov (727RV, Jan. 15-18), for what it's worth:

49% (+10 since early Dec.) Approve
48%    (-9 since early Dec.) Disapprove
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7170 on: January 20, 2011, 04:20:38 PM »
« Edited: January 20, 2011, 04:35:24 PM by Landslide Lyndon »

OK, can someone explain to me what are the reasons behind Obama's spectacular rise?
It's not like something fundamental changed in a month or so to see his numbers surge so dramatically.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7171 on: January 20, 2011, 04:25:37 PM »

OK, can someone explain to me what are the reasons behind Obama's spectacular rise?
It's not like something fundamental changed in a month or so to see him numbers surge so dramatically.

Buyer's remorse from GOP midterm voters (there is probably a small element of that).

His numbers were at the lowest over the summer and there was a pickup even before the the midterms.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7172 on: January 20, 2011, 04:43:21 PM »

Perhaps the lame duck session?
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Exopolitician
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« Reply #7173 on: January 20, 2011, 04:48:07 PM »

OK, can someone explain to me what are the reasons behind Obama's spectacular rise?
It's not like something fundamental changed in a month or so to see his numbers surge so dramatically.


Id love to hear Poundingtherock's take on this as well.
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #7174 on: January 20, 2011, 04:55:57 PM »

The lame duck session, and reaction to Gifford's shooting helped Obama's approval.

I think it's a temporary bump, the healthcare efforts of Republicans will probably keep him down. However, if they overreach, and they only concentrate on healthcare, then it may backfire....concentrated on the past not moving forward, and also why they are not concentrated on jobs, number one priority for most people.

People may grow tired of congressional republicans and repealing healthcare, especially if it leads to a government shutdown (defunding some health care related costs). If that happens, I suspect Obama will come out ahead. Romney may become more visible and to have romneycare and obamacare that sort of neutralizes the healthcare issue (or at least gives Democrats some cover).
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