The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1207543 times)
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #7100 on: January 13, 2011, 08:28:18 PM »

pbrower, get your head out of the sand and breathe some fresh air. Go outside, your prediction of Obama winning Texas is far fetched.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #7101 on: January 13, 2011, 08:44:13 PM »

Barack Obama seems to have recieved a mini-bump lately, perhaps part of the bounce may be because of his speech last night?

Obama's not winning Texas if he trails Palin by fifteen points.

I suspect that he would beat Sarah Palin in Texas. Such says more about Sarah Palin than about President Obama.

The latest poll said 51 Palin-36 Obama in Texas. We are two years out, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #7102 on: January 13, 2011, 08:57:11 PM »

Barack Obama seems to have recieved a mini-bump lately, perhaps part of the bounce may be because of his speech last night?

Obama's not winning Texas if he trails Palin by fifteen points.

I suspect that he would beat Sarah Palin in Texas. Such says more about Sarah Palin than about President Obama.

No Democrat would beat any Republican in Texas in this current environment. You're losing credibility with every post you make. Please, understand the electorate and the political system. [The comparison here would be: Obama will lose Washington DC.....erm, simply not gonna happen, no matter how badly Obama does]
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7103 on: January 13, 2011, 09:37:39 PM »

But there will be a poll of Texas by PPP within a few days. The last poll of Texas came before the 2010 election. I'm not going to say that Barack Obama would win against Huckabee, Romney, or Gingrich. But Palin? She is slipping fast. If a poll shows that she can't win Texas in a head-to-head matchup with President Obama, then people funding her campaign might wisely direct their money elsewhere. Such may be more important to Campaign 2012 than whether President Obama has 37% approval or 47% approval in the state. 

I posited that Iowa might be shaky for President Obama, which could be a bigger disaster for him than that he would lose 65-35 in Texas. A recent PPP poll showed the approval for the President at 50%, which is very good for a state that went for Dubya once and before there is any campaign underway.

Texas is getting population growth, and as a result a growth in its electorate. The Hispanic vote is getting larger -- fast -- and the GOP has little to offer as a direct benefit to the vast majority of Hispanics. Add to that, Texas is getting people who have fled the Rust Belt; those people don't suddenly start voting as if they were born  in the Panhandle of Texas. They bring their political culture with them.   

Look -- I'm going to post the results however they come. I just find it surprising that if the President's approval is around 50% and that for some of the states that voted for the President by 10% margins show are weaker, then the President is gaining somewhere else. The most obvious state for that to happen in is Texas, by far the most populous state that President Obama lost.

PPP has shown few polls in states that President Obama lost by monster margins. One of those is Wyoming, arguably the state most likely to maintain a record of having never voted for a Democrat for President since 1964. (Others are Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, and South Dakota). 

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5280
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« Reply #7104 on: January 13, 2011, 09:39:14 PM »

I can't believe anything the stuff this guy says anymore man...
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #7105 on: January 13, 2011, 10:04:22 PM »

I can't believe anything the stuff this guy says anymore man...
His post is logical.  Do you have any actual criticism or are you just going to put your hands over your ears and shout "Lalalalala I can't hear you!" whenever pBrower posts?
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7106 on: January 13, 2011, 10:16:38 PM »

I agree with pbrower, the Texas race may be closer than most people suspect, if only when Sarah Palin is involved.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7107 on: January 13, 2011, 11:25:17 PM »

Dude, other people are citing a poll from one of the most credible pollsters in Texas showing her up 15 on Obama in Texas.  That's what people who are not even Palin supporters are reacting to Pbrower about.

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-politics/2010-texas-governors-race/perry-leads-white-in-trade-group-poll/

She's running ahead of Rick Perry.  Think about that and you'll see why some are lashing out at Pbrower.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7108 on: January 13, 2011, 11:47:55 PM »

I can't believe anything the stuff this guy says anymore man...

I can be proved very wrong. I have a hypothesis easily debunked. Of course it is possible that Texas has changed little in its politics since 2008.  But I can also see how it can change.


 
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Dgov
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« Reply #7109 on: January 14, 2011, 12:12:53 AM »

Well, here's PPP's last poll of Texas to give you a reference (taken Early November, right after elections)

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/some-good-signs-for-palin.html

For those to lazy to look it up, they had Obama down 35-59 against a Generic Republican (and even losing Texas Hispanics by 2 points to a GR).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7110 on: January 14, 2011, 12:45:51 AM »

Obama is now much more popular than he was in early November, Palin is weaker.

That will have an impact in the TX numbers, but even TX is so nuts to elect Sarah Palin ...

I think Obama trails Palin by 5-10 this time.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7111 on: January 14, 2011, 01:56:48 AM »

Tender,

He's not if you believe PPP's/Daily Kos most recent national poll
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Alcon
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« Reply #7112 on: January 14, 2011, 07:00:22 AM »


I can't tell if you're somehow making a grossly incoherent reference to the Tucson shootings or aptly describing this thread.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7113 on: January 14, 2011, 09:53:33 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -2.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, U.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, +2.

So much for the "noise" from the Giffords assassination attempt.

Actually, Obama's numbers had been improving slightly since 1/7/11 (but not dramatic).
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #7114 on: January 14, 2011, 04:13:21 PM »


I can't tell if you're somehow making a grossly incoherent reference to the Tucson shootings or aptly describing this thread.

Pbrower posts here under protection of the American with Disabilities Act.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7115 on: January 14, 2011, 04:40:17 PM »

Why so much hate?
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J. J.
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« Reply #7116 on: January 14, 2011, 04:45:24 PM »


I can't tell if you're somehow making a grossly incoherent reference to the Tucson shootings or aptly describing this thread.

Pbrower posts here under protection of the American with Disabilities Act.

Hey, as someone covered by the Americans with Disabilities Act, I strongly resent any inference Pbrower is. 
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #7117 on: January 15, 2011, 10:47:59 AM »
« Edited: January 15, 2011, 12:08:38 PM by Mitt Romney's Hair »

+3.3% on RCP avg. The economy is still in shatters, unemployment is still above 9%....this HAS to be a mini rally effect from last weekend - and his resulting speech. There's really no other way to explain this.

I expect his numbers to tank again within 2 weeks - should nothing else of note happen.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #7118 on: January 15, 2011, 11:55:11 AM »

+3.3% on RCP avg. The economy is still in shatters, unemployment is still above 9%....this HAS to be a mini rally effect from last weekend - and his resulting speech. There's really no other way to explain this.

I expect his numbers to tank again within 2 weeks - should nothing else of not happen.


Don't sound too excited now.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7119 on: January 15, 2011, 12:27:56 PM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, nc.

For comparison purposes:



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Oakvale
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« Reply #7120 on: January 15, 2011, 01:13:50 PM »

I notice Rasmussen is still polling "likely voters" - how the hell does that make any sense?
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7121 on: January 15, 2011, 01:34:17 PM »

It makes more sense than polling adults.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7122 on: January 15, 2011, 01:51:19 PM »

I notice Rasmussen is still polling "likely voters" - how the hell does that make any sense?

In the last two months or so, it makes eminent sense to ask who is going to vote ("likely voters") instead of who can vote (registered voters), let alone potential voters (adults who pass such a screen as knowing that there will be an election).

Some of the people who will be voting in the 2012 election are now barely 16 years old. Some have just achieved citizenship. Some people who pass some of the strongest screens for voting -- as "But I haven't missed an election for sixty years!" aren't going to vote for the simple reason that the Grim Reaper will remove them from the electorate more effectively than any "felon list". Registered voters in Ohio might relocate to Texas where the jobs are (supposedly) and irrespective of their voting habits in Ohio, they just won't be voting in Ohio. 

Anyone registering to vote shows some intention of voting. 

In any event, Rasmussen has yet to show any poll that suggests that President Obama will lose. One can typically ad 6% to an approval rating and get a fair estimate of how an incumbent Governor, Senator, or at-large Representative will do. Or incumbent President. I look at recent Rasmussen polls and I see him winning with anywhere between 52% and 55% of the popular vote. He will have to set up a campaign apparatus, he will have to campaign, and he will have to scandals and diplomatic/military debacles.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #7123 on: January 15, 2011, 02:14:13 PM »

It makes more sense than polling adults.

Not really - what's a "likely voter" at this point?
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7124 on: January 15, 2011, 02:17:36 PM »

But who cares what an adult who is not a registered voter thinks anyway?  They are irrelevant to the political process.
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