The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7075 on: January 11, 2011, 03:27:55 PM »

Wyoming (PPP):

Obama: 29% Approve, 66% Disapprove
Freudenthal: 71% Approve, 18% Disapprove
Barasso: 69% Approve, 25% Disapprove
Enzo: 63% Approve, 24% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WY_0110.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7076 on: January 11, 2011, 08:07:19 PM »
« Edited: January 12, 2011, 11:15:29 AM by pbrower2a »

No way does President Obama win Wyoming. So much for the obvious:


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   65
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   9




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  65
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  67
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  9 


PPP Has the choices of Colorado, Connecticut, Nebraska, Rhode Island,  Texas, and West Virginia for its next polls. WV leads CT, followed by TX. PPP was contemplating Arizona, but events make that choice inapt for now.

So far I have no poll for any state in which John McCain won by a huge margin except Kansas and Wyoming, and I don't trust either poll for Kansas let alone believe that anyone can predict anything based on how Kansas or Wyoming polls.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7077 on: January 12, 2011, 02:19:20 AM »

A few updates:

AP-GfK National Poll:

53% Approve, 46% Disapprove
59% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK%20Poll%20%20011111.pdf

DailyKos/PPP National Poll:

45% Approve, 51% Disapprove
46% Favorable, 49% Unfavorable

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/1/6

Virginia (CNU/Times-Dispatch Poll)Sad

44.2% Approve
48.5% Disapprove

http://static.mgnetwork.com/rtd/flash/poll_dec_2010/general/PollGeneral.html

PS: This VA poll is already a month old ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7078 on: January 12, 2011, 02:22:15 AM »

I guess his approval will rise in the next month, because Obama can present himself now as a man of the middle in this heated partisan sea of madness when he speaks today in Arizona and later at the SOTU.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7079 on: January 12, 2011, 05:53:53 AM »

I find it odd that PPP finds Obama's approval lower than Rasmussen (cue Poundingmydick ranting about "Marshall's pimp").

Also, they must be the first pollster to find Bhoener's approvals in positive territory and a majority of Americans supporting the repeal of HCR. Might be a heavily Republican sample but the guys have earned their stripes and deserve our benefit of the doubt.   
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Oakvale
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« Reply #7080 on: January 12, 2011, 07:28:23 AM »

I find it odd that PPP finds Obama's approval lower than Rasmussen (cue Poundingmydick ranting about "Marshall's pimp").

Also, they must be the first pollster to find Bhoener's approvals in positive territory and a majority of Americans supporting the repeal of HCR. Might be a heavily Republican sample but the guys have earned their stripes and deserve our benefit of the doubt.   

PPP is now John Boehner's pimp, obviously.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7081 on: January 12, 2011, 09:32:55 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -1.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7082 on: January 12, 2011, 01:45:45 PM »

Ipsos/Reuters:

50% Approve
47% Disapprove

Of the 1,021 people surveyed, 780 were registered voters, including 451 Democrats, 388 Republicans and 182 independents. It had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points for all those surveyed, 3.5 points for registered voters, 4.4 points for Democrats, 4.9 points for Republicans and 7.4 points for independents. Interviews were conducted of people on both landlines and cell phones.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110112/pl_nm/us_usa_poll_5
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7083 on: January 12, 2011, 06:19:37 PM »
« Edited: January 12, 2011, 06:33:15 PM by pbrower2a »

Well, I have been speculating that Iowa might be shaky for President Obama in 2012.

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Maybe not, now.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_0112513.pdf

It looks as if Indiana is the only reasonably-certain pick-up for the Republicans from 2008, for now, and might be until someone polls Indiana. So far a near-replay of 2008 looks more likely than anything else.





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!



District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   71
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   9




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   71
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  67
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  9  


PPP Has the choices of Colorado, Connecticut, Nebraska, Rhode Island,  Texas, and West Virginia for its next polls. WV leads CT, followed by TX. PPP was contemplating Arizona, but events make that choice inapt for now.

So far I have no poll for any state in which John McCain won by a huge margin except Kansas and Wyoming, and I don't trust either poll for Kansas let alone believe that anyone can predict anything based on how Kansas or Wyoming polls.


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change08
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« Reply #7084 on: January 12, 2011, 06:21:35 PM »

How many nationals have President Obama in positive territory?
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albaleman
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« Reply #7085 on: January 12, 2011, 08:33:13 PM »

It's odd that Obama is more popular in NC than VA.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7086 on: January 12, 2011, 08:52:20 PM »

Different pollsters. Between two PPP polls, Virginia showed a stronger support for Obama than did North Carolina. A subsequent and different poll showed a lower approval rating for Obama in Virginia. Unless I have cause to believe that the poll is suspect (for example, that it has an unusual percentage of undecided voters, the poll has odd crosstabs, the pollster usually polls for one Party or another, or the poll is commissioned by or for an organization likely to have a bias) I accept it.  If the polls are close in time I usually average them.

I would never accept a poll on behalf of a trade association, labor union, political party,  ethnic association, or fringe media unit. I rejected a poll for Pennsylvania commissioned by a Scaife newspaper. Sometimes I see a strange poll that appears in no other state. 

 
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7087 on: January 12, 2011, 10:07:47 PM »

I thought rasmussen was a total joke to you guys.  You need to make up your mind when Rasmussen releases his presidential election polls.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7088 on: January 12, 2011, 10:31:04 PM »

PPP's national polling is quite inconsistent with his state by state polling.

PPP has Obama just as popular in North Carolina and Florida as he has him nationally.  Keep in mind too that his national sample is only 70% white.

I'll admit that it's weird.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7089 on: January 13, 2011, 12:17:30 AM »

I thought rasmussen was a total joke to you guys.  You need to make up your mind when Rasmussen releases his presidential election polls.

Rasmussen's national poll in 2008 was pretty spot on, if the exit polls are to be believed. It was his state polls were terrible. I don't know that that allows us to trust his national polls but not his state ones, but that's what I'll do, I guess.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7090 on: January 13, 2011, 03:11:19 AM »

I thought rasmussen was a total joke to you guys.  You need to make up your mind when Rasmussen releases his presidential election polls.

They are nearly identical to the other polls.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7091 on: January 13, 2011, 04:17:57 AM »

My biggest beef with PPP is that its national polling is inconsistent with its state polling.  How is his approval rating in North Carolina and Florida better than his approval rating nationally?

I actually do not have much to complain about regarding PPP's national poll.  Yes, there seem to be too few whites polled but then again, 51% of the sample is comprised of moderates.

I agree with you that Ras has declined with his state polling.  But given that a lot of people here seem to believe his national polling is stellar, I hope you are willing to stay consistent if Ras shows Palin within 3-6 points as he has in the past.  I imagine most of the people here will dismiss Ras as a partisan hack.
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Zarn
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« Reply #7092 on: January 13, 2011, 09:24:29 AM »

My biggest beef with PPP is that its national polling is inconsistent with its state polling.  How is his approval rating in North Carolina and Florida better than his approval rating nationally?

I actually do not have much to complain about regarding PPP's national poll.  Yes, there seem to be too few whites polled but then again, 51% of the sample is comprised of moderates.

I agree with you that Ras has declined with his state polling.  But given that a lot of people here seem to believe his national polling is stellar, I hope you are willing to stay consistent if Ras shows Palin within 3-6 points as he has in the past.  I imagine most of the people here will dismiss Ras as a partisan hack.

Dude, Palin will not win... take it from other Republicans, she is not good presidential material.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7093 on: January 13, 2011, 09:40:30 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.

The Strongly Disapprove numbers are the lowest since 10/10/09.

(Could someone else take this for next several days, if possible using the same format.)
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7094 on: January 13, 2011, 01:51:30 PM »

I don't think the world is going to end if we don't get the Rasmussen tracking poll for one day.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7095 on: January 13, 2011, 03:04:03 PM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.

The Strongly Disapprove numbers are the lowest since 10/10/09.

(Could someone else take this for next several days, if possible using the same format.)

Could be the mass murder in Tucson.  Statistical, if tragic noise.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #7096 on: January 13, 2011, 03:29:18 PM »

Mini rally effect, anyone? (Sure, he's been ticking upwards - slightly - for a month or so now, but this is the first time he's in positive territory on RCP Avg).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7097 on: January 13, 2011, 04:27:49 PM »

In view of the recent decision by Kay Bailey Hutchinson to retire from national politics, 

PPP will be polling...

TEXAS

Texas gave John McCain 20% of the electoral votes that he got. If President Obama has been slipping in the Rust Belt due to economic distress but has been holding his own in nationwide approvals, then Texas is where the nationwide compensation is most likely to be.

An Obama win of Texas implies a landslide victory in itself.

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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #7098 on: January 13, 2011, 07:46:02 PM »

Barack Obama seems to have recieved a mini-bump lately, perhaps part of the bounce may be because of his speech last night?

Obama's not winning Texas if he trails Palin by fifteen points.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7099 on: January 13, 2011, 07:49:54 PM »

Barack Obama seems to have recieved a mini-bump lately, perhaps part of the bounce may be because of his speech last night?

Obama's not winning Texas if he trails Palin by fifteen points.

I suspect that he would beat Sarah Palin in Texas. Such says more about Sarah Palin than about President Obama.
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