The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

[WillK]

Do any of these polls try to parse the 'Disapprove' into those who are likely to vote Republican from those (like me) who are not satisfied with what he has done but would vote form him over any likely Republican choice?

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

[You kip if you want to...]

A poll is a poll, jeez.

[Tender Branson]

PA (Susquehanna Polling and Research/Pittsburgh Tribune-Review):

44% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/regional/s_716843.html

[Tender Branson]

MI (Glengariff Group/Detroit News/WDIV Local 4):

46% Approve
50% Disapprove

45% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Of particular note, Independent voters approve of the job President Obama is doing by a margin of 49.6%-43.4%.

Only 30.2% of Michigan voters say they would vote to re-elect Barack Obama while 47.5% said they would vote for someone new.

21.7% are undecided. 88.7% of Republicans would vote for someone new. 74.0% of Democrats would vote to re-elect the President.

But the Independent vote is split on re-election with 24.6% voting to re-elect, 41.0% voting for someone new, and 33.6% of Independent voters undecided about President Obama’s re-election.

Additionally, women have a 48%-42% favorable impression of President Obama as compared to men who have a 42.7%-52.0% negative impression of President Obama.

...

The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a 600 sample survey of registered Michigan voters. The live operator telephone survey was conducted on January 2-4, 2011 and has a margin of error of +/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence. The survey was commissioned by the Detroit News and WDIV Local 4.

http://www.clickondetroit.com/download/2011/0105/26375457.pdf

[Poundingtherock]

So it seems that a lot of Democrats in that poll have an unfavorable opinion of Obama if he's a net negative in terms of favorability even though he's likely a net positive in terms of favorability among indies considering he's a net positive for approval among indies.

Conservative Democrats seem to be turning hard against him in Michigan if that poll is to believed.

A 45/47 favorable/unfavorable rating in Michigan gets him to 41/53 favorable/unfavorable nationally.

A 44/50 approval/disapproval in PA gets him to 42/53 approval/disapproval nationally.

[Poundingtherock]

Hmm, actually looking at the crosstabs, it seems that there has been an explosion of Republicans in MI.  It's now 32/26 R/D.  Indies are now 40% of the sample.  People must be fleeing the Democrat Party in Michigan.

Obama is a 9/87 among Republicans, a 88/7 among Democrats, and 47/41 among indies. 

Remember these are his favorable ratings, so you cannot rely on the talking point that people like Obama personally. 

[Tender Branson]

PA (PPP):

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 547 Pennsylvania voters from January 3rd to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_0106503.pdf

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

[pbrower2a]

First 2001 polls -- letter A, for Pennsylvania. Obama is down 46-49 in approval, but he beats everyone. One of those that he beats decisively is Rick Sanctimonious, which demonstrates that even if Santorum could win the Republican primary in Pennsylvania, he would be clobbered. The better that people know him, the less they like him.  The rare Glengariff poll is hard to place, but it at least is commissioned by  non-fringe media. Considering how the states voted for statewide offices and for someone who will become slang in Pennsylvania for "six-year-mistake"

(examples: that relief pitcher that the Pirates signed to a six-year contract and blew out his arm is a real Pat Toomey", or "the six-year lease on the 2012 Lemonmobile is a Pat Toomey"). Maybe that happens when the word gets out -- vote straight GOP or God will be angry with you on Judgment Day!

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/01/obama-leads-all-comers-in-pennsylvania.html

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neither is really a surprise. There might be one soon for Nevada, which would say much about the Inner West. Hint: John Ensign is in deep trouble politically if the legal system doesn't get him first .

 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   64
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   6



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   60
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%7
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  67
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   6

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 50%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -3.

Possibly an anti-Obama sample dropping; we should know Tuesday or Wednesday.

(Does somebody want to cover this for me over the weekend?)

[Poundingtherock]

Tender,

I'm surprised you haven't "observed" Obama is now a net negative again in Gallup days after you "observed" Obama at 50% in Gallup.

It was not only a short stay at 50%...it was a short stay as a net positive in approval.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Nevada

Approve/Disapprove: 50/46

Obama/Huckabee: 51/41
Obama/Palin: 52/39
Obama/Romney: 47/46
Obama/Gingrich: 51/40

He absolutely crushes anyone but Romney there.



 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   65
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   6



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  65
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  67
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   6

It looks much like November 2008 again, which bodes ill for the GOP even now.

[Yelnoc]

That's quite a sober picture for the GOP considering that we have just passed midterms.  Barring a double-dip recession, a massive scandal, or major foreign policy debacle (North Korea?) I can't see Obama losing.

[pbrower2a]

That's quite a sober picture for the GOP considering that we have just passed midterms.  Barring a double-dip recession, a massive scandal, or major foreign policy debacle (North Korea?) I can't see Obama losing.

We have yet to see any polls for any Southern states except those three that aren't particularly Southern. Rustbowl states may be approaching the mean, but they are doing so from the high side. Some others must be approaching from the low side. Texas? That would be rich.  The only imaginable swing states not yet polled are Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, and New Hampshire.


North Korea? He can give North Korea to the People's Republic of China as a puppet state if necessary to save his political situation.  The People's Liberation Army would be welcomed -- as liberators, which is an unlikely thing to say until you realize that the country in question is North Korea. Another scenario -- a unified but neutral, nuke-free, Republic of Korea that is democratic with a free-market system and more open to commercial dealings with China -- might satisfy just about everyone except a few people who eminently deserve either to be hanged or shut away in a mental institution.

Jon Huntsman was as wise a choice as he could make for Ambassador to China.   

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 50%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -3.

Possibly an anti-Obama sample dropping; we should know Tuesday or Wednesday.

(Does somebody want to cover this for me over the weekend?)

Sure. Have snowstorm, won't travel.

[Tender Branson]

Tender,

I'm surprised you haven't "observed" Obama is now a net negative again in Gallup days after you "observed" Obama at 50% in Gallup.

It was not only a short stay at 50%...it was a short stay as a net positive in approval.

I wasn't online yesterday (only in the early morning). But yeah, there's a big anti-Obama sample moving through. We should see in the next days if this holds.

[Yelnoc]

That's quite a sober picture for the GOP considering that we have just passed midterms.  Barring a double-dip recession, a massive scandal, or major foreign policy debacle (North Korea?) I can't see Obama losing.

We have yet to see any polls for any Southern states except those three that aren't particularly Southern. Rustbowl states may be approaching the mean, but they are doing so from the high side. Some others must be approaching from the low side. Texas? That would be rich.  The only imaginable swing states not yet polled are Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, and New Hampshire.


North Korea? He can give North Korea to the People's Republic of China as a puppet state if necessary to save his political situation.  The People's Liberation Army would be welcomed -- as liberators, which is an unlikely thing to say until you realize that the country in question is North Korea. Another scenario -- a unified but neutral, nuke-free, Republic of Korea that is democratic with a free-market system and more open to commercial dealings with China -- might satisfy just about everyone except a few people who eminently deserve either to be hanged or shut away in a mental institution.

Jon Huntsman was as wise a choice as he could make for Ambassador to China.   

He could do that, then again he might not.  I personally think that North Korea will fall apart on its own and that China will be the first to invade to stop the flow of refugees through its northern border, after which we will jump in at the head of a UN coalition to restore order.  Then the North and South will be slowly integrated after a high level of rebuilding in the North.  Now, we can't predict exactly how all of this will play out when it comes to the political arena. 

[pbrower2a]

As promised:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-eight percent (38%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11 (see trends).

Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove.

After reaching its highest level in two years on Friday, consumer and investor confidence both fell on Saturday following release of the latest numbers on unemployment and job creation. It often takes up to a full week before the impact of a jobs report on confidence is fully measured.

Expectations for the new Congress are low. Only 17% expect significant spending cuts   over the next two years and just 12% think there will be serious deficit reduction. Half (49%) expect tax hikes.

[Tender Branson]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Thirty-nine percent (39%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12.

Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, u.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, u.

It looks like Obama's numbers have improved.

[Oakvale]

Yeah, there definitely seems to be a positive trend in Obama's numbers - it'd be much more obvious on the RCP average if not for the Fox poll from December skewing things...

[Eraserhead]

I wouldn't be too shocked if they go up even higher for a little while... you know, for obvious reasons.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, New Jersey:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NJ_01111023.pdf

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Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   65
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 71
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 18
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   6



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 69
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  65
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5%48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 23
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  67
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   6

PPP Has the choices of Colorado, Connecticut, Nebraska, Rhode Island,  Texas, and West Virginia for its next polls. WV leads CT, followed by TX. PPP was contemplating Arizona, but events make that choice inapt for now.

So far I have no poll for any state in which John McCain won by a huge margin except Kansas, and I don't trust either poll for Kansas let alone believe that anyone can predict anything based on how Kansas polls.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -1.

I'd say improvement.