The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1206964 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #6975 on: December 28, 2010, 02:07:36 AM »

Ok Tender, I'll play along.

There is no way Obama is at 46% nationally in Gallup and then for PPP to show Obama at 46% approval in North Carolina or 50% in Virginia or 45% in Florida.

I'm just utilizing your logic.

Look, these fall within the margin of error of the national results at that time.

When PPP polled FL, Rasmussen had Obama at 50% approval, so 45% is 5 points less.

When PPP polled NC, Rasmussen had Obama at 49% approval, so 46% is 3 points less.

When PPP polled VA, Rasmussen had Obama at 47% approval, so 50% is 3 points more.

All fall within the MoE of the national figures and Virginia is trending heavily Democratic, in 2008 it was already at the national average and might be ABOVE the national average for Obama right now.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6976 on: December 28, 2010, 02:11:24 AM »

So let me get this straight:

You trust Rasmussen's daily tracking approval rating poll (but not his state-by-state approval rating polling) but you distrust his head-to-head polling

You trust SurveyUSA's head-to-head polling but you distrust its state-by-state approval rating polling.

And of course, anything that a Democrat pollster who was pimping Elaine Marshall produces is accurate because Nate Silver said that its end results were Republican-leaning, ignoring the fact that its earlier polling showed Rand Paul and Rick Perry in dead heats.

Is this an accurate representation of your view on the pollsters?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6977 on: December 28, 2010, 02:19:12 AM »

So let me get this straight:

You trust Rasmussen's daily tracking approval rating poll (but not his state-by-state approval rating polling) but you distrust his head-to-head polling

You trust SurveyUSA's head-to-head polling but you distrust its state-by-state approval rating polling.

And of course, anything that a Democrat pollster who was pimping Elaine Marshall produces is accurate because Nate Silver said that its end results were Republican-leaning, ignoring the fact that its earlier polling showed Rand Paul and Rick Perry in dead heats.

Is this an accurate representation of your view on the pollsters?

Fact is that Rasmussen's NATIONAL polling about approval ratings in 2010 mirrored the Exit Poll very closely. They also got the NATIONAL 2004 and 2008 final polls between Kerry and Bush and Obama and McCain right. He might have found a good formula with this.

Their state by state polling is OK in some cycles, bad in others (2010). I cannot say alot about their statewide approval ratings, because they became really shady recently and cover things up in their releases to attract money from subcribers.

SurveyUSA has a really bad track record with state approval ratings after 2006, but has the best track record for general election polls.

PPP's numbers are among the best overall (general election and approval ratings, when compared with the exit polls) - this cycle and in the 2008 cycle. If you deny that, you are out of reality.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6978 on: December 28, 2010, 02:22:39 AM »

Do you deny that Rasmussen and SurveyUSA are finding a completely different presidential race than the presidential race PPP is finding?

You just stated that all three have something to brag about but you are ignoring the fact that Ras and SurveyUSA are finding a different America than PPP.

I'd take SurveyUSA over PPP but PPP (at the end) over Rasmussen.  It seems that Ras and PPP are more prone to producing outliers for its head-to-head polling than SurveyUSA.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #6979 on: December 28, 2010, 02:23:50 AM »

Watch out, Tender, you'll catch the dumb.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6980 on: December 28, 2010, 02:34:01 AM »

Do you deny that Rasmussen and SurveyUSA are finding a completely different presidential race than the presidential race PPP is finding?

You just stated that all three have something to brag about but you are ignoring the fact that Ras and SurveyUSA are finding a different America than PPP.

I'd take SurveyUSA over PPP but PPP (at the end) over Rasmussen.  It seems that Ras and PPP are more prone to producing outliers for its head-to-head polling than SurveyUSA.

Rasmussen and SurveyUSA are just so reclusive right now that you can't make any comparison with PPP. Rasmussen and SUSA have not put out polls of the 2012 race so far.

And they all use currently faulty measures too: SurveyUSA uses adults in their polls, when a lot of these people will actually never vote in 2 years and distorts figures in states like California, where not even half of adults are likely voters.

If there are any differences, it will be because of these different models.

If you look at PPIC's latest polls from California, you'll see that Obama's approval among California ADULTS is about 60%, among REGISTERED Voters it is about 55% and among LIKELY VOTERS it's 50%.

How can SurveyUSA's figures among CA Adults be so low then ?

Because they are notoriously bad. The same with Rasmussen's state polls, where they use Likely Voters 1 or 2 years out. They are also bad. PPP does the only right thing and uses Registered Voters until a few months before the actual election.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6981 on: December 28, 2010, 02:40:09 AM »

SurveyUSA has polled the 2012 race.  They did so in early November.

I'll concede that it's odd that SurveyUSA produces such bad results for Obama when it polls adults as polling adults generally favor Obama.  It's very unusual for it to be the other way around but that just happens to be the case with SurveyUSA.  I don't know why you would object to it considering that it's likely to find a sample favorable to Obama.  Perhaps SurveyUSA is finding too many adult non-voters who lean Democrat who are upset with Obama.  That may be a flaw in their model.

However, for every PPIC-type poll that you cite to disprove SurveyUSA's findings, I can just cite another Roanoke college poll to provide support for SurveyUSA's findings.  Do I believe that Obama is at 36% in Virginia among adults?  No but I don't think he's at 50% among registered voters either.  Both results are laughable.

Keep in mind too that Mason-Dixon will come close to SurveyUSA in a lot of these states.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6982 on: December 28, 2010, 02:47:30 AM »

SurveyUSA has polled the 2012 race.  They did so in early November.

The NewsMax polls ?

There was a reference to SurveyUSA in their release, but it wasn't mentioned on the SurveyUSA site.

So, this dubios NewsMax site might have just pulled this release out of their ass and said SUSA polled for them ...

Normally, SUSA has the crosstabs on their site or on the page of the client they polled for.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6983 on: December 28, 2010, 02:52:50 AM »

Any other conspiracy theories?  I'm sure SurveyUSA would have said something about it if they didn't in reality poll it but hey, you are free to believe in any conspiracy that you want to believe in.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6984 on: December 28, 2010, 02:54:16 AM »

Any other conspiracy theories?  I'm sure SurveyUSA would have said something about it if they didn't in reality poll it but hey, you are free to believe in any conspiracy that you want to believe in.

Polls that have 0% undecided 2 years out are dubious, don't you think ?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6985 on: December 28, 2010, 02:54:35 AM »

Hmm, let's relax for a minute, shall we?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7ubI-MTLVM
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6986 on: December 28, 2010, 03:03:52 AM »

Tender,

Hey man, you were one who claimed something a lot more sinister than dubious.  Yes, I think it was a mistake on SurveyUSA's part to push everyone to make a choice.  However, that critique is different from claiming SurveyUSA never conducted the polling (a la Strategic Vision/Research 2000) as you suggested.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6987 on: December 28, 2010, 03:11:43 AM »

Tender,

Hey man, you were one who claimed something a lot more sinister than dubious.  Yes, I think it was a mistake on SurveyUSA's part to push everyone to make a choice.  However, that critique is different from claiming SurveyUSA never conducted the polling (a la Strategic Vision/Research 2000) as you suggested.

As I've said I have a problem with right-wing news magazines that publish 100%-with-no-undecideds poll results and no crosstabs on their site.

But lets wait until SUSA and Rasmussen put out their own 2012 polls on their sites and now please let us adjourn the discussion obout it for a couple of months until we get them.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6988 on: December 28, 2010, 09:41:54 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, u.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6989 on: December 28, 2010, 09:51:15 AM »

Tender,

Hey man, you were one who claimed something a lot more sinister than dubious.  Yes, I think it was a mistake on SurveyUSA's part to push everyone to make a choice.  However, that critique is different from claiming SurveyUSA never conducted the polling (a la Strategic Vision/Research 2000) as you suggested.

As I've said I have a problem with right-wing news magazines that publish 100%-with-no-undecideds poll results and no crosstabs on their site.

But lets wait until SUSA and Rasmussen put out their own 2012 polls on their sites and now please let us adjourn the discussion obout it for a couple of months until we get them.

Over the next few months the pollsters are going to assess the approvals that incoming Senators and Governors get. We are going to see how popular some Hard Right politicians fare in such states as Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If they do badly, then President Obama stands to win a landslide.

Hint: there's not much of a honeymoon this time.
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Zarn
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« Reply #6990 on: December 28, 2010, 10:05:33 AM »

Tender,

Hey man, you were one who claimed something a lot more sinister than dubious.  Yes, I think it was a mistake on SurveyUSA's part to push everyone to make a choice.  However, that critique is different from claiming SurveyUSA never conducted the polling (a la Strategic Vision/Research 2000) as you suggested.

As I've said I have a problem with right-wing news magazines that publish 100%-with-no-undecideds poll results and no crosstabs on their site.

But lets wait until SUSA and Rasmussen put out their own 2012 polls on their sites and now please let us adjourn the discussion obout it for a couple of months until we get them.

Over the next few months the pollsters are going to assess the approvals that incoming Senators and Governors get. We are going to see how popular some Hard Right politicians fare in such states as Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If they do badly, then President Obama stands to win a landslide.

Hint: there's not much of a honeymoon this time.

Define "hard right."
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6991 on: December 28, 2010, 10:07:29 AM »

Tender,

Hey man, you were one who claimed something a lot more sinister than dubious.  Yes, I think it was a mistake on SurveyUSA's part to push everyone to make a choice.  However, that critique is different from claiming SurveyUSA never conducted the polling (a la Strategic Vision/Research 2000) as you suggested.

As I've said I have a problem with right-wing news magazines that publish 100%-with-no-undecideds poll results and no crosstabs on their site.

But lets wait until SUSA and Rasmussen put out their own 2012 polls on their sites and now please let us adjourn the discussion obout it for a couple of months until we get them.

Over the next few months the pollsters are going to assess the approvals that incoming Senators and Governors get. We are going to see how popular some Hard Right politicians fare in such states as Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If they do badly, then President Obama stands to win a landslide.

Hint: there's not much of a honeymoon this time.

Define "hard right."

Hard Right -- Jim DeMint is Hard Right, and Dick Lugar isn't.
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Vosem
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« Reply #6992 on: December 28, 2010, 02:10:45 PM »

Tender,

Hey man, you were one who claimed something a lot more sinister than dubious.  Yes, I think it was a mistake on SurveyUSA's part to push everyone to make a choice.  However, that critique is different from claiming SurveyUSA never conducted the polling (a la Strategic Vision/Research 2000) as you suggested.

As I've said I have a problem with right-wing news magazines that publish 100%-with-no-undecideds poll results and no crosstabs on their site.

But lets wait until SUSA and Rasmussen put out their own 2012 polls on their sites and now please let us adjourn the discussion obout it for a couple of months until we get them.

Over the next few months the pollsters are going to assess the approvals that incoming Senators and Governors get. We are going to see how popular some Hard Right politicians fare in such states as Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If they do badly, then President Obama stands to win a landslide.

Hint: there's not much of a honeymoon this time.

Define "hard right."

Hard Right -- Jim DeMint is Hard Right, and Dick Lugar isn't.

By that definition, Scott, Kasich, Corbett, and Walker aren't Hard Right.
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Saxwsylvania
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« Reply #6993 on: December 28, 2010, 02:13:49 PM »

Obama's going to win in a landslide because Pat Toomey and Marco Rubio might be unpopular in 2012? 

Hey, pbrower!
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6994 on: December 28, 2010, 05:40:27 PM »

Tender,

I'll accept that.  But you damn well know that Rasmussen is going to show a close race for Obama (including the Palin-Obama matchup).

Your friends on this blog will easily dismiss Rasmussen as a right-wing pollster.  I'll remember and see if you are willing to stand up for Rasmussen when that time comes.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6995 on: December 29, 2010, 11:58:16 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, u.

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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #6996 on: December 29, 2010, 01:03:09 PM »

I'm curious if Obama starts polling above 50 in the next few months if any of the presumed candidates will get cold feet and bail on a run.  I don't think you'll see any majors get in before mid-March.

I'm continuing to assume Palin and Huckabee won't say anything in the 1st half of 2011.  It'll also be curious to see how they continue to poll without announcing or campaigning.  Obama being over 50% for 6 months would probably keep Huck out and maybe Palin as her head-to-head gap would grow.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6997 on: December 29, 2010, 01:12:08 PM »

Joe,

He's not getting 50% anywhere besides perhaps the Washington Post poll.

Ras's 51% disapproval is as hardened as you can get.  That number isn't improving even if the economy comes back dramatically.  If you believe Rasmussen, Obama's goose is cooked.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6998 on: December 29, 2010, 03:00:18 PM »

Joe,

He's not getting 50% anywhere besides perhaps the Washington Post poll.

Ras's 51% disapproval is as hardened as you can get.  That number isn't improving even if the economy comes back dramatically.  If you believe Rasmussen, Obama's goose is cooked.

Wrong. Very wrong.

There are people who will be as dissatisfied with the choice that the GOP has to offer as with President Obama even if nothing else changes. Such people either won't vote or will waste their votes on some minor-party candidate. 48-46-6 still wins -- for Obama.

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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6999 on: December 29, 2010, 03:43:38 PM »

Pbrower,

We'll see what Rasmussen shows.  Chances are that you'll be denouncing Ras as a right-wing pollster.
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