The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1205549 times)
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6225 on: September 21, 2010, 02:43:53 PM »

Rasmussen Reports (independently of Fox News) is out with a new poll that has Obama at 57% statewide approval in CA.  We need to see what they get independently of Fox News in a couple of the other Fox News/POR states, but the CA result makes the POR polls look more than a little suspicious.
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« Reply #6226 on: September 21, 2010, 02:49:18 PM »

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

Unfortunately for Republicans, nothing done for Fox News should be taken seriously, even if it is Rasmussen.  
Unfortunately for members on this forum, nothing should be taken seriously about this thread or Pbrower's predictions for 2012.  He skews them in his favor.

I look at the numbers in my own way, this is just a nice place to go since all the polls are in one place.

Rasmussen surely have the best idea of where the country is, but when they do a poll specifically to be shown on Fox News, which in my mind is not a news organization, I don't really pay attention to it.

Are you bothered that statistical analysis of past Fox News polls doesn't back up your claim at all?


...thanks.

See post before this one. 

(And I'm sure it being election season affects what will be broadcast on the official mouthpiece of the GOP)

I've always noticed some Fox News/Rasmussen polls to be skewed against Democrats.  I wouldn't be making that claim if I hadn't noticed it.  The newest numbers are suspect to say the least.  45% in Delaware?  37% in Pennsylvania?  When RECENT independent Rasmussen polls have shown Obama in the mid-50s in Delaware and high 40s in Pennsylvania?  Uhhh... nah, man.  I'll ignore Fox thank you very much.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6227 on: September 21, 2010, 02:57:02 PM »

PPP: West Virginia

30-64
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6228 on: September 21, 2010, 03:03:35 PM »

FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen:

Delaware: 45-46

Nevada: 40-52

California: 45-47

Pennsylvania: 37-54

Ohio: 38-57

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/
Pbrower, make sure to add these.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6229 on: September 21, 2010, 03:06:10 PM »


Yikes, again!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6230 on: September 21, 2010, 03:23:56 PM »


Right -- when this one is available:

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

...something is wrong with a "news" organization which tries to shape political life by putting out polls that it likes.

FoX News/Opinion Dynamics had objective polling in 2008 -- but NOT NOW!

If I see anything it is the statewide polarization characteristic of 2008.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6231 on: September 21, 2010, 05:56:54 PM »


Right -- when this one is available:

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

...something is wrong with a "news" organization which tries to shape political life by putting out polls that it likes.

FoX News/Opinion Dynamics had objective polling in 2008 -- but NOT NOW!

If I see anything it is the statewide polarization characteristic of 2008.

I'm not sure what the poll does to "shape political life" except to indicate that Obama has a good chance of Carrying California, which every Democrat has done since 1992.  Roll Eyes
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6232 on: September 21, 2010, 06:15:34 PM »


Right -- when this one is available:

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

...something is wrong with a "news" organization which tries to shape political life by putting out polls that it likes.

FoX News/Opinion Dynamics had objective polling in 2008 -- but NOT NOW!

If I see anything it is the statewide polarization characteristic of 2008.
Balance the two, you have always done that before, especially in North Carolina. You still need to add the other polls too. There is no reason for you to reject these when you take CNN ones.
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« Reply #6233 on: September 21, 2010, 08:57:22 PM »


Right -- when this one is available:

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

...something is wrong with a "news" organization which tries to shape political life by putting out polls that it likes.

FoX News/Opinion Dynamics had objective polling in 2008 -- but NOT NOW!

If I see anything it is the statewide polarization characteristic of 2008.
Balance the two, you have always done that before, especially in North Carolina. You still need to add the other polls too. There is no reason for you to reject these when you take CNN ones.

I agree with what you say. Pbrower, balance out the polls if you only accept CNN over Fox News or alot of people will stop taking your polls seriously.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #6234 on: September 21, 2010, 09:28:25 PM »

RI, WV, NJ, AK, DE, NV, CA (averaged both polls), PA, OH, & MI



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Penelope
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« Reply #6235 on: September 21, 2010, 09:59:46 PM »



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

O=Obama '08 State
M=McCain '08 State

Trying out my own color scheme - I don't like PBrower2's or JBrase's, so I'm trying this one out. Let me know what you think.
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« Reply #6236 on: September 21, 2010, 10:51:43 PM »

CNBC/Public Opinion Strategies/Hart Research:

47% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39268766/

Bradley effect.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6237 on: September 21, 2010, 11:58:39 PM »



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

O=Obama '08 State
M=McCain '08 State

Trying out my own color scheme - I don't like PBrower2's or JBrase's, so I'm trying this one out. Let me know what you think.

The "M" and "O" on your map is well-known material that will be completely irrelevant in 2012, and we all know the map well.   You could have a number or letter to show the age of the poll or a prediction of electoral votes. 

You have an attractive color scheme. 

How does Obama have a 50-50 tie in North Dakota? That must be an oversight.

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Smid
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« Reply #6238 on: September 22, 2010, 12:08:54 AM »



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

O=Obama '08 State
M=McCain '08 State

Trying out my own color scheme - I don't like PBrower2's or JBrase's, so I'm trying this one out. Let me know what you think.

I don't mind your colour scheme. I think red v green is a good indicator of approval/disapproval. The only thing I'd change is getting rid of the Maine and Nebraska CDs (unless a poll specifically separates them) - otherwise you're guessing and that sort of guess work is not polled and shouldn't be included in a poll map. You can get rid of the CDs by using a map from (I think) the 1964 election (?) something like that.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #6239 on: September 22, 2010, 01:19:09 AM »



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

O=Obama '08 State
M=McCain '08 State

Trying out my own color scheme - I don't like PBrower2's or JBrase's, so I'm trying this one out. Let me know what you think.

I don't mind your colour scheme. I think red v green is a good indicator of approval/disapproval. The only thing I'd change is getting rid of the Maine and Nebraska CDs (unless a poll specifically separates them) - otherwise you're guessing and that sort of guess work is not polled and shouldn't be included in a poll map. You can get rid of the CDs by using a map from (I think) the 1964 election (?) something like that.

     In the EV Calculator, one of the display options is to disable displaying Congressional Districts.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6240 on: September 22, 2010, 09:14:10 AM »


Right -- when this one is available:

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

...something is wrong with a "news" organization which tries to shape political life by putting out polls that it likes.

FoX News/Opinion Dynamics had objective polling in 2008 -- but NOT NOW!

If I see anything it is the statewide polarization characteristic of 2008.
Balance the two, you have always done that before, especially in North Carolina. You still need to add the other polls too. There is no reason for you to reject these when you take CNN ones.

I agree with what you say. Pbrower, balance out the polls if you only accept CNN over Fox News or alot of people will stop taking your polls seriously.

FoX News is an oxymoron.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6241 on: September 22, 2010, 09:18:30 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +2.

Disapprove 52%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -2.

All numbers still in range.

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6242 on: September 22, 2010, 09:40:23 AM »


Right -- when this one is available:

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

...something is wrong with a "news" organization which tries to shape political life by putting out polls that it likes.

FoX News/Opinion Dynamics had objective polling in 2008 -- but NOT NOW!

If I see anything it is the statewide polarization characteristic of 2008.
Balance the two, you have always done that before, especially in North Carolina. You still need to add the other polls too. There is no reason for you to reject these when you take CNN ones.

I agree with what you say. Pbrower, balance out the polls if you only accept CNN over Fox News or alot of people will stop taking your polls seriously.

FoX News is an oxymoron.
Pbrower, you will lose any credibility you still have if you don't include the FOX polls. Because let's face it, if those polls were very pro-Obama, you would have immediately added them. You just don't want to because they aren't good for your messiah.
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« Reply #6243 on: September 22, 2010, 10:55:01 AM »

Look at this guy, he doesn't even bother. What a tool!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6244 on: September 22, 2010, 01:10:29 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2010, 03:11:10 PM by pbrower2a »

Maine State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

    29% Strongly approve

    18% Somewhat approve

      9% Somewhat disapprove

    43% Strongly disapprove

      1% Not sure







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  159
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   62
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call  44
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   25
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  66
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   114  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......
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Penelope
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« Reply #6245 on: September 22, 2010, 02:47:55 PM »
« Edited: September 22, 2010, 04:23:32 PM by Odysseus »

Nebraska should be a blue state.

Anyways, here's mine, I removed Congressional Districts on request and added the Maine poll:



30% Or Lower: Red-9
40%-30% Approval: Red-5
40-44% Approval: Red-4
45-49% Approval: Yellow-3
50% Approval Equal: Yellow-1 (White)
50% Approval Greater: Green-3
50-55%: Green-4
56-59%: Green-6
60%+: Green-8
DC - Blue -

NOTE: I can't get the Maine/Nebraska lettering to work:

MAINE-RASMUSSEN
NEBRASKA-UNKNOWN

POLLING KEY:
R-Rasmussen Reports
PPP-Public Policy Polling
U-Unknown*

*I'm only going to use this for ones that I took from pbrower's map, these will be disappearing soon enough.

I will NOT use any Media Polling - no MSNBC, CNN, or FOX.

2012

This tab will show the current likelihood of the GOP taking back the white house. I take the current leading GOP hopeful and current approval ratings to predict what the map may start out like before campaigning and polling. This map shows, essentially, what the situation would look like if the campaign began tomorrow.



Assured Obama - 6
Safe Obama - 124
Likely Obama - 28
Leaning Obama - 105

Tossup - 24
Leaning Romney - 16
Likely Romney - 118
Safe Romney - 103
Assured Romney - 15

Obama - 259
Romney - 255
Tossup - 24
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6246 on: September 22, 2010, 03:13:04 PM »

Correction made. Tpyos happen.

I am beginning to see the problem with media, especially those that act as if they have a stake in the transformation of America.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6247 on: September 22, 2010, 03:16:21 PM »

Illinois Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 21, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

34% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
        10% Somewhat disapprove
       38% Strongly disapprove
         0% Not sure







Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  139
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call  44
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   25
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  66
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   114  



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

[/quote]
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« Reply #6248 on: September 22, 2010, 03:19:30 PM »


Right -- when this one is available:

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

...something is wrong with a "news" organization which tries to shape political life by putting out polls that it likes.

FoX News/Opinion Dynamics had objective polling in 2008 -- but NOT NOW!

If I see anything it is the statewide polarization characteristic of 2008.
Balance the two, you have always done that before, especially in North Carolina. You still need to add the other polls too. There is no reason for you to reject these when you take CNN ones.

I agree with what you say. Pbrower, balance out the polls if you only accept CNN over Fox News or alot of people will stop taking your polls seriously.

FoX News is an oxymoron.
Pbrower, you will lose any credibility you still have if you don't include the FOX polls. Because let's face it, if those polls were very pro-Obama, you would have immediately added them. You just don't want to because they aren't good for your messiah.

He does pull a lot of pro-Obama bullsh**te, but would you agree or disagree that FoxNews is a legitimate NEWS source?  In this particular case, I would have to agree with him in ignoring these polls.  When the SAME company polls California independently and gets a very believable number, then polls for an organization that is known for extreme right wing bias and gets a radically different number that is on the low end of the spectrum you have to question the credibility.  

And before you jump down my throat I also ignore PPP polls due to their affiliation with the Democrats.  
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« Reply #6249 on: September 22, 2010, 04:00:39 PM »


Right -- when this one is available:

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted September 20, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       39% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         7% Somewhat disapprove
       35% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure

...something is wrong with a "news" organization which tries to shape political life by putting out polls that it likes.

FoX News/Opinion Dynamics had objective polling in 2008 -- but NOT NOW!

If I see anything it is the statewide polarization characteristic of 2008.
Balance the two, you have always done that before, especially in North Carolina. You still need to add the other polls too. There is no reason for you to reject these when you take CNN ones.

I agree with what you say. Pbrower, balance out the polls if you only accept CNN over Fox News or alot of people will stop taking your polls seriously.

FoX News is an oxymoron.
Pbrower, you will lose any credibility you still have if you don't include the FOX polls. Because let's face it, if those polls were very pro-Obama, you would have immediately added them. You just don't want to because they aren't good for your messiah.

And before you jump down my throat I also ignore PPP polls due to their affiliation with the Democrats.  

I took the WV PPP poll, only because I believe PPP got something right (for once), it was 34-60 I believe.
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