The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1206344 times)
Poundingtherock
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« Reply #5900 on: August 29, 2010, 02:13:39 PM »

Gallup: 43/49
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5901 on: August 29, 2010, 02:21:27 PM »

Possible pro-Obama sample or actual movement in the national polls?

...no more bad news from Iraq?

Perceptions shape support and disdain for the President.

Imo, Iraq hasn't been a big deal with people except the peace activists and those who are genuinely concerned with how much money we've spent there.  Although if the Administration is being able to hype the fact that it's been done, more power to them.  However, I doubt that alone is enough for actual movement.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5902 on: August 29, 2010, 02:43:42 PM »

ting.

I'm not a fan of Gallup's tracking poll, but the numbers are within three points of the 'bots.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #5903 on: August 29, 2010, 05:25:29 PM »

Huh?  Gallup is pretty solid but it wouldn't be overly harsh of Obama.

If anything, Gallup is overly favorable for Obama.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5904 on: August 29, 2010, 05:34:51 PM »

Huh?  Gallup is pretty solid but it wouldn't be overly harsh of Obama.

If anything, Gallup is overly favorable for Obama.

I am not too thrilled about Gallup's tracking poll accuracy.  Whether or not overly favorable, that doesn't change my opinion of the accuracy.  I just don't trust Gallup's tracking poll as much as I do Rasmussen, in terms of longer term treads.

I use Gallup to compare different presidents over the years.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5905 on: August 29, 2010, 05:47:54 PM »

One thing to look at is Obama's negative numbers here:  http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm

It is running well ahead of either Carter's or Reagan's at the same point in time.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5906 on: August 29, 2010, 05:48:54 PM »

Update for end of August 2010 (unless something changes greatly in the last couple of days):

All State Polls:  46% Approve (nc), 51% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (3-poll):  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+1)
Rasmussen (1-poll only): 47% Approve (nc), 53% Disapprove (+1)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  44% Approve (-2), 50% Disapprove (+1)
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J. J.
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« Reply #5907 on: August 30, 2010, 09:30:22 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 52%, u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

Strongly Disapprove out of range.  Either a good Obama sample or some strengthening of Obama.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5908 on: August 30, 2010, 11:43:36 AM »
« Edited: August 30, 2010, 12:19:51 PM by pbrower2a »

Colorado Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 29, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    29% Strongly approve
    17% Somewhat approve
       6% Somewhat disapprove
    47% Strongly disapprove
       1% Not sure

No change, but a critical state nonetheless.

West Virginia Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 29, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

17% Strongly approve
12% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
58% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  151
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 145
white                        too close to call  29
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  47
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 15
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 165



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......





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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #5909 on: August 30, 2010, 12:24:03 PM »

wow, West Virginia is B-A-D
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5910 on: August 30, 2010, 01:13:20 PM »


back in 2008, coal interests (meaning coal tycoon Don Blankenship) put out the meme that as someone showing more empathy to ecological interests than to environment-wreckers for profit and sympathetic to unions, Barack Obama was an "enemy of coal".
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change08
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« Reply #5911 on: August 30, 2010, 01:21:47 PM »

What's funnier is the WV approval numbers even though the Dem is the favorite for the senate seat.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5912 on: August 30, 2010, 02:27:24 PM »

What's funnier is the WV approval numbers even though the Dem is the favorite for the senate seat.

Not by much, according to Scott.
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Vepres
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« Reply #5913 on: August 30, 2010, 05:08:58 PM »

What's funnier is the WV approval numbers even though the Dem is the favorite for the senate seat.

West Virginia, like much of the border south, will readily vote for the "right kind" of Democrat, but strongly oppose all others. So it's not that surprising to me.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5914 on: August 31, 2010, 05:03:14 AM »

Minnesota (Humphrey Institute): 42-52

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2010/08/31-mn-governors-race-poll/images/MPRHHH-poll-August-2010-governor.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5915 on: August 31, 2010, 09:29:30 AM »

NY (Quinnipiac): 51-41

OH (Rasmussen): 45-54

CO (Rasmussen): 42-57

...

Interesting:

Rasmussen has 2 different results for Colorado: The Senate release has it 46-53, the Governor release 42-57 and both were conducted on the same day.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5916 on: August 31, 2010, 09:56:45 AM »
« Edited: September 01, 2010, 10:23:39 AM by J. J. »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

Edir:  Strongly Disapprove is corrected.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5917 on: August 31, 2010, 10:02:29 AM »
« Edited: August 31, 2010, 10:08:03 AM by pbrower2a »

Colorado Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 29, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    22% Strongly approve
    20% Somewhat approve
     10% Somewhat disapprove
    47% Strongly disapprove
       0% Not sure

Slipping.

...No real change in Ohio, either, but adequate as a start when such is necessary. The President will need an organization  in Ohio and make some effective campaign appearance to win the state.

Ohio Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 30, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

       27% Strongly approve
       18% Somewhat approve
         8% Somewhat disapprove
       46% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION:




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  151
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  39
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 136
white                        too close to call  29
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  56
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 15
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 165



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......






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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5918 on: August 31, 2010, 11:07:05 AM »
« Edited: August 31, 2010, 11:12:58 AM by Emperor JBrase »

NM, MO, MN, LA, AK, IL, NY, OK, OH, & CO




30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5919 on: August 31, 2010, 11:08:09 AM »

PA (Rasmussen): 42-58

NC (PPP): 43-54
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5920 on: August 31, 2010, 11:09:16 AM »

NM, MO, MN, LA, AK, IL, NY, OK, OH, & CO




30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green


You have to change NM, Rasmussen had 57% for Obama.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5921 on: August 31, 2010, 11:13:25 AM »
« Edited: August 31, 2010, 11:35:01 AM by Emperor JBrase »

fixed

NM, MO, MN, LA, AK, IL, NY, OK, OH, & CO




30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Edu
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« Reply #5922 on: August 31, 2010, 11:49:30 AM »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

If this happens, any idea why?
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Penelope
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« Reply #5923 on: August 31, 2010, 11:56:12 AM »

2012 Prediction based upon JBrase's map:



Core Obama States: 10% Margin of Victory
Safe Obama States: 5% Margin of Victory
Leaning Obama States: 1-3% Margin of Victory
Leaning Republican States: 1-3% Margin of Victory
Safe Republican States: 5% Margin of Victory
Core Republican States: 10% Margin of Victory

It should be noted that this assumes that a moderate republican will get nominated, like Romney or Karger.



Obama: 322
Republican: 216

So if things stay similar to the current situation, I'd say we're looking at 1996.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5924 on: August 31, 2010, 12:07:17 PM »

There´s also upward movement @ Gallup today:

45% Approve (+2)
47% Disapprove (-2)
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