The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1086079 times)
CatoMinor
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« Reply #5675 on: August 14, 2010, 12:24:15 PM »

Ok, I thought those GA number looked a little weird. Heres a more realistic (though a bit higher than  though for GA) poll from Ras today.

GA: 44/53
link


It´s 46-53.
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Click on the topline page.

The Senate and the Governor poll were conducted on the same day, it´s 46-53.

Rasmussen did write it wrong in their release.
ok, how do you get to that page? I always get the approval number by digging them out of their articals on whatever race they happen to be polling.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5676 on: August 14, 2010, 12:25:37 PM »

GA


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5677 on: August 14, 2010, 12:35:53 PM »

Ok, I thought those GA number looked a little weird. Heres a more realistic (though a bit higher than  though for GA) poll from Ras today.

GA: 44/53
link


It´s 46-53.
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Click on the topline page.

The Senate and the Governor poll were conducted on the same day, it´s 46-53.

Rasmussen did write it wrong in their release.
ok, how do you get to that page? I always get the approval number by digging them out of their articals on whatever race they happen to be polling.

Close to the bottom it says: "See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Platinum Members only."

followed by a green symbol with "share this".
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5678 on: August 14, 2010, 01:11:44 PM »

Ok, I thought those GA number looked a little weird. Heres a more realistic (though a bit higher than  though for GA) poll from Ras today.

GA: 44/53
link


It´s 46-53.
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Click on the topline page.

The Senate and the Governor poll were conducted on the same day, it´s 46-53.

Rasmussen did write it wrong in their release.
ok, how do you get to that page? I always get the approval number by digging them out of their articals on whatever race they happen to be polling.

Close to the bottom it says: "See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Platinum Members only."

followed by a green symbol with "share this".
Thanks!, thats much better now Grin
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #5679 on: August 14, 2010, 02:28:54 PM »

Gallup:

43% Approve
48% Disapprove

A new low.
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Vepres
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« Reply #5680 on: August 14, 2010, 02:31:58 PM »


If this holds, Democrats are screwed.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5681 on: August 14, 2010, 02:50:28 PM »



I assume no further long-term decline. There will be statistical noise, perhaps reflecting the news of the day (including economic indicators as announced). The potential for a big economic downturn is much smaller than it was in the winter of 2008-2009. There is no speculative boom for the simple reason that none is possible. The US is pulling out of combat operations in Iraq (a good thing, because they were ineffective) and has a scheduled exit from Afghanistan. It might not be Eisenhower getting an armistice in Korea, but it isn't the worst scenario possible. Sure, I'd love to see Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri on the way to a federal criminal trial for the capital offense of genocide for 9/11 -- but who knows whether either is alive.

As I have said elsewhere, President Obama will run on his achievements in 2012 and win -- or try to run from his failures (yet to be shown) and lose.  Such will manifest themselves in approval polls.

I'm seeing a rough stabilization only from June and no bounce off the lows.  The best thing that can be said is that the numbers are not declining.
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Umengus
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« Reply #5682 on: August 14, 2010, 03:21:51 PM »

Obama is in decline. The majority of polls show that he's in negative territory. Ironically, Rasmussen is one of the most positive for him...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5683 on: August 14, 2010, 04:15:07 PM »
« Edited: August 14, 2010, 06:07:00 PM by pbrower2a »

Obama is in decline. The majority of polls show that he's in negative territory. Ironically, Rasmussen is one of the most positive for him...

It's the news cycle. If there should be a rash of forest fires, then the President's approval rating goes down even if the culprit is an insane arsonist.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #5684 on: August 14, 2010, 04:32:54 PM »

Obama is in decline. The majority of polls show that he's in negative territory. Ironically, Rasmussen is one of the most positive for him...

It's the news cycle. I there should be a rash of forest fires, then the President's approval rating goes down even if the culprit is an insane arsonist.

lol, you are funny...
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #5685 on: August 14, 2010, 08:30:48 PM »

Obama is in decline. The majority of polls show that he's in negative territory. Ironically, Rasmussen is one of the most positive for him...

It's the news cycle. If there should be a rash of forest fires, then the President's approval rating goes down even if the culprit is an insane arsonist.

You have realized that the President is the media golden boy now, and no longer the media scapegoat, right?
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #5686 on: August 14, 2010, 11:50:08 PM »

Gallup: 43/48
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5687 on: August 14, 2010, 11:51:40 PM »

FL (Ipsos):

44-51

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/elections/floridas-senatorial-candidates-have-voters-undecided-annoyed/1115420
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izixs
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« Reply #5688 on: August 15, 2010, 02:41:40 AM »

Obama is in decline. The majority of polls show that he's in negative territory. Ironically, Rasmussen is one of the most positive for him...

It's the news cycle. If there should be a rash of forest fires, then the President's approval rating goes down even if the culprit is an insane arsonist.

You have realized that the President is the media golden boy now, and no longer the media scapegoat, right?

My dear talking hair, not all people are rational beings. One can realize this just by looking around this forum. People that answers polls sometimes are among the nonsensical. They could of lost their car keys and now are having a bad day and thus don't like the president as much as they did yesterday when they found a kitten. It doesn't matter if the media loves or hates the president. If there's lots of bad news going on people get upset and thus more negative. The moon could suddenly explode for no good reason, sending shrapnel at us that will likely kill us all and there'd be people who blame the president.
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Sbane
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« Reply #5689 on: August 15, 2010, 03:54:45 AM »

Ok, I thought those GA number looked a little weird. Heres a more realistic (though a bit higher than  though for GA) poll from Ras today.

GA: 44/53
link


GA is one of those states that will probably trend towards Obama, regardless of the final outcome, in 2012. So it's not surprising to get a few polls that show higher support than one would think considering his national numbers. The same can be said of NC, SC, FL, VA etc.... Basically more urbanized southern states seem to be sticking with Obama to a certain extent. On the other hand look at his approvals in most of the upper midwest and rocky mountains. Lower than one would think considering his approval is still in the mid 40s.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5690 on: August 15, 2010, 08:38:20 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

In range.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5691 on: August 15, 2010, 08:51:22 AM »

Obama is in decline. The majority of polls show that he's in negative territory. Ironically, Rasmussen is one of the most positive for him...

It's the news cycle. If there should be a rash of forest fires, then the President's approval rating goes down even if the culprit is an insane arsonist.

You have realized that the President is the media golden boy now, and no longer the media scapegoat, right?

You forget FoX Newspeak Channel, the WSJ editorial pages (the newspaper is still OK), and Clear Channel -- not to mention Breitbart, Newsmax, etc. If you are talking about the most populist of media, the tabloid Globe has been putting out stories disparaging President Barack Obama as gay or "foreign".

... all I have is the news and patterns of history. If one compares President Obama to all Presidents after 1900 one finds that he does more of what one associates with the more effective Presidents and less of what one sees with less-effective Presidents. He's more like Teddy Roosevelt than like Jimmy Carter. As for polls, they must be understood as noise aside from any discernible long-term trend.

If he is a "golden boy" to liberal media it is because after his predecessor he is almost a diametric opposite. Face it, Republicans -- George W. Bush was one of the worst Presidents in our history, and only because of a perverse miracle was Dubya something other than a one-term President. Face it, Republicans -- the GWB agenda is stale, empty, and even counterproductive.  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5692 on: August 15, 2010, 08:58:59 AM »
« Edited: August 15, 2010, 12:53:15 PM by pbrower2a »

North Dakota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted on August 10, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

       23% Strongly approve
       19% Somewhat approve
       10% Somewhat disapprove
       48% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure


FL -- Ipsos poll recognized

Connecticut State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 11, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

32% Strongly approve
23% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
37% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  57
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  33
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  25
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 149



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......
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muon2
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« Reply #5693 on: August 15, 2010, 09:50:34 AM »

GA


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

I noticed that you aren't using the Aug 12 Rasmussen for CO at 47% approval, but still have his Aug 3 result at 44%. Is that intentional or an oversight?
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5694 on: August 15, 2010, 12:00:52 PM »

GA


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

I noticed that you aren't using the Aug 12 Rasmussen for CO at 47% approval, but still have his Aug 3 result at 44%. Is that intentional or an oversight?
I miss polls sometimes, It'll be fixed.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5695 on: August 15, 2010, 12:05:38 PM »

CO fixed


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Rowan
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« Reply #5696 on: August 15, 2010, 12:08:18 PM »

Gallup: 42/49

Ouch.
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Umengus
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« Reply #5697 on: August 15, 2010, 01:00:05 PM »


Mosque effect ?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5698 on: August 16, 2010, 08:54:47 AM »

Rasmussen (16-08-2010)Sad

43% (-2)  Approve
56% (+3) Disapprove

26% (nc)  Strongly Approve
45% (+2) Strongly Disapprove
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J. J.
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« Reply #5699 on: August 16, 2010, 09:25:01 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -2.

Disapprove 56%, +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +2.

The disapproval numbers are at the upper edge of range, but still within range.

Note that range includes situations where approve is lower than strongly disapprove.

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