The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5625 on: August 10, 2010, 05:03:10 PM »

Tennessee State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 9, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

22% Strongly approve
15% Somewhat approve
10% Somewhat disapprove
52% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  79
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 81
white                        too close to call  35
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  22
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  41
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 149



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5626 on: August 10, 2010, 05:05:51 PM »

TN


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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« Reply #5627 on: August 10, 2010, 09:59:36 PM »

pbrower, I suggest you use purple instead of white for the predictions map for 2012, it looks more like a battleground state
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5628 on: August 10, 2010, 11:08:47 PM »

pbrower, I suggest you use purple instead of white for the predictions map for 2012, it looks more like a battleground state

The color code does not support purple. It supports red, blue, green, yellow, and orange, and shades thereof. One might not get a true black, but give 10% yellow and you get a shade of white that shows a number or letter.   The shade of purple that I would have to use would be lavender, which leaves connotations irrelevant to this exercise.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5629 on: August 11, 2010, 10:32:04 AM »

The color code does not support purple. It supports red, blue, green, yellow, and orange, and shades thereof. One might not get a true black, but give 10% yellow and you get a shade of white that shows a number or letter.   The shade of purple that I would have to use would be lavender, which leaves connotations irrelevant to this exercise.

Were pbrower to use lavender, he would be suggesting that Minnesota is gay, that Obama is gay, or perhaps most likely, that they are in a gay relationship with each other.
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change08
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« Reply #5630 on: August 11, 2010, 10:40:03 AM »

Rasmussen has Obama at 54/46 in Illinois.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/illinois/toplines/toplines_illinois_senate_august_9_2010
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change08
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« Reply #5631 on: August 11, 2010, 11:35:11 AM »
« Edited: August 11, 2010, 11:37:25 AM by change08 »

PPP national:
47/48
(+2)/(-4)

Changes since 9-12/7


Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care plan, or do you not have an opinion?
46% Support, 48% Oppose

Do you think George W. Bush or Barack Obama is more responsible for the current state of the economy?
49% Bush, 40% Obama

Would you rather have Barack Obama or George W. Bush as President right now?
50% Obama, 43% Bush

Out of the last 5 Presidents: Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush, who do you think Barack Obama is most similar to?
41% Clinton, 35% Carter, 6% Reagan, 2% H.W. Bush, 2% W. Bush


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_811.pdf
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Oakvale
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« Reply #5632 on: August 11, 2010, 11:45:12 AM »

PPP national:
47/48
(+2)/(-4)

Changes since 9-12/7


Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care plan, or do you not have an opinion?
46% Support, 48% Oppose

Do you think George W. Bush or Barack Obama is more responsible for the current state of the economy?
49% Bush, 40% Obama

Would you rather have Barack Obama or George W. Bush as President right now?
50% Obama, 43% Bush

Out of the last 5 Presidents: Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush, who do you think Barack Obama is most similar to?
41% Clinton, 35% Carter, 6% Reagan, 2% H.W. Bush, 2% W. Bush


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_811.pdf

Jesus, those Bush figures are just depressingly high.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5633 on: August 11, 2010, 12:14:43 PM »
« Edited: August 11, 2010, 02:09:37 PM by pbrower2a »

Illinois Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 9, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    

35% Strongly approve
     19% Somewhat approve
       9% Somewhat disapprove
     37% Strongly disapprove
       0% Not sure

Wisconsin State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 10, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

30% Strongly approve
19% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
41% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  51
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 109
white                        too close to call  35
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  22
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  41
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 149



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......




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J. J.
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« Reply #5634 on: August 11, 2010, 12:26:16 PM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, +1.

The Strongly Disapprove number is a bit outside of range from July 1, but by much.  It could just be a bad Obama sample.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5635 on: August 11, 2010, 09:11:33 PM »

IL & WI
Ras has WI at 49/51


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
tied - White
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Zarn
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« Reply #5636 on: August 11, 2010, 09:14:37 PM »

Come on NJ, you can do it. Wake up! Wink

Although it has gone under 50% a few times... it has not, lately.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5637 on: August 12, 2010, 12:16:26 AM »

Michigan back to green.

Glengariff Group for The Detroit News/WDIV: 50-46

http://www.clickondetroit.com/download/2010/0811/24595936.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5638 on: August 12, 2010, 12:32:31 AM »
« Edited: August 12, 2010, 09:01:00 AM by pbrower2a »


Also, Missouri:

Missouri State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 10, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    29% Strongly approve
    14% Somewhat approve
       8% Somewhat disapprove
    48% Strongly disapprove
      2% Not sure


... and Wisconsin:

Wisconsin State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 10, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

39% Strongly approve
19% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
41% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

Both of these polls come from Rasmussen.


Obama won Wisconsin by about a 56-44 split, so this one looks a bit screwy on the high side.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  148
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  57
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 93
white                        too close to call  24
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  33
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  41
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 149



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......





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Reaganfan
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« Reply #5639 on: August 12, 2010, 01:57:42 AM »

Wow...I had no idea just how bad it's gotten...but the last 10 days, Obama's approval has sunk big-time. Down to 41% in some polls. Not long before he gets into George Bush 2007 territory.
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« Reply #5640 on: August 12, 2010, 02:31:46 AM »

Wow...I had no idea just how bad it's gotten...but the last 10 days, Obama's approval has sunk big-time. Down to 41% in some polls. Not long before he gets into George Bush 2007 territory.

Not yet.  George Bush got so low because he lost alot of Conservative support during his second term--There are enough lefties to keep him above 40% on just their support alone.

In other words, until he does something to majorly piss off the kind of Leftists that vote straight Democrat anyway, he's got a floor of about 40%.  Though admittedly, Gibbs's recent statement means he's standing dangerously close to that territory.
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Sbane
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« Reply #5641 on: August 12, 2010, 02:43:19 AM »

Wow...I had no idea just how bad it's gotten...but the last 10 days, Obama's approval has sunk big-time. Down to 41% in some polls. Not long before he gets into George Bush 2007 territory.

I hope you don't cry if Obama wins in 2012. You seem to really have your hopes up.....
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5642 on: August 12, 2010, 02:55:44 AM »

Wow...I had no idea just how bad it's gotten...but the last 10 days, Obama's approval has sunk big-time. Down to 41% in some polls. Not long before he gets into George Bush 2007 territory.

Umm, Bush was in the 20s for much of 2007. There were a few polls that even had him in the teens. Obama isn't even close to that, although that isn't exactly saying much in Obama's defense.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5643 on: August 12, 2010, 06:05:03 AM »
« Edited: August 12, 2010, 08:48:11 AM by pbrower2a »

Wow...I had no idea just how bad it's gotten...but the last 10 days, Obama's approval has sunk big-time. Down to 41% in some polls. Not long before he gets into George Bush 2007 territory.

So what event has caused the polls to sink? A week ago they were rising.

All that is necessary to get reduced polls for Obama is for the pollster to change the partisan mix. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #5644 on: August 12, 2010, 08:38:05 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, +2.

Disapprove 54%, -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, -1.

The Strongly Disapprove number is back in range.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5645 on: August 12, 2010, 08:50:13 AM »

Wait, why is Wisconsin green? The poll has 48% approving, 50% disapproving. You can't discount it just because you don't like the numbers.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5646 on: August 12, 2010, 08:56:22 AM »

A "Jet Blue" Nation?

(I am not familiar with the airline, but I figure that it offers the sort of discounted air travel that makes one realize why some would pay $800 more to go First Class on a trip between Cleveland and Philadelphia, and that a bad airline trip differs from a bus trip only in speed, cost, and offering less scenery) -- my comment

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5647 on: August 12, 2010, 09:00:22 AM »

Wait, why is Wisconsin green? The poll has 48% approving, 50% disapproving. You can't discount it just because you don't like the numbers.

OK, there is a really -good reason to distrust the numbers: they add up to 110%!

Take another look:

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You are right -- I am not going to accept that poll at face value. Just wait for the next one -- a correction, surely.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5648 on: August 12, 2010, 09:03:06 AM »

Wait, why is Wisconsin green? The poll has 48% approving, 50% disapproving. You can't discount it just because you don't like the numbers.

OK, there is a really -good reason to distrust the numbers: they add up to 110%!

Take another look:

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You are right -- I am not going to accept that poll at face value. Just wait for the next one -- a correction, surely.
Maybe if you'd copy down polls right this wouldn't be an issue.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/wisconsin/toplines/toplines_wisconsin_senate_august_10_2010

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5649 on: August 12, 2010, 09:30:26 AM »

Wait, why is Wisconsin green? The poll has 48% approving, 50% disapproving. You can't discount it just because you don't like the numbers.

OK, there is a really -good reason to distrust the numbers: they add up to 110%!

Take another look:

Quote
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You are right -- I am not going to accept that poll at face value. Just wait for the next one -- a correction, surely.
Maybe if you'd copy down polls right this wouldn't be an issue.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/wisconsin/toplines/toplines_wisconsin_senate_august_10_2010

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Rasmussen corrected a misprint. Such happens.
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