The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1206099 times)
Yelnoc
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« Reply #5525 on: July 30, 2010, 04:49:16 PM »

There are two problems with this. 
1) Obama's low approval rating in liberal states like Oregon in Maine can be partially attributed to liberals who are disatisfied with his administration but would not vote for a Republican (though might vote for an independent or Green if a serious one appeared in protest).
2) The GOP may end up shooting themselves in the foot and nominating someone like Palin.

Still, those are good maps.
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Derek
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« Reply #5526 on: July 30, 2010, 08:05:28 PM »

http://


Battlegrounds:

Ohio 52-48 GOP
Penn 53-47 GOP
Florida 57-43 GOP
Nevada 55-43 GOP
Colorado 57-42 GOP
Oregon 52-48 GOP
New Jersey 51-49 GOP
New Hampshire 59-40 GOP
New Mexico 52-48 GOP
Michigan 51-49 GOP
Minnesota 50-49 GOP
Wisconsin 51-48 Obama
Iowa 50-48 Obama
Maine 50-49 Obama
Washington 50-49 Obama
Delaware 50-49 GOP

Those are the most recent approvals I've seen for Obama. He would likely lose Biden's home state of Delaware with such a performance to date.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5527 on: July 31, 2010, 09:15:16 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -3.

Disapprove 56%, +3 .


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +3.

 In the last month Obama's numbers range has been:


Approve:  42-49 (or 45.5% +/-  3.5)

Disapprove: 50-56 (or 53.0% +/- 3.0)

Strongly Approve: 24-28 (or 26.0 +/- 2.0)

Strongly Disapprove:  39-45 (or 42.0 +/-3.0)

There is less variability that in June.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5528 on: July 31, 2010, 09:52:33 AM »

I've been kind of lazy in doing the charts of state-by-state national averages, but here's the national numbers as of now:

All State Polls:  46% Approve, 50% Disapprove
Rasmussen (3-poll) Only:  48% Approve, 51% Disapprove
Rasmussen (1-poll) Only:  48% Approve, 52% Disapprove
Non-Rasmussen Only:  45% Approve, 49% Disapprove

At the end of July, only minor changes.

All State Polls:  46% Approve (+/-0), 50% Disapprove (+/-0)
Rasmussen (3-poll) Only:  48% Approve (+/-0), 51% Disapprove (+/-0)
Rasmussen (1-poll) Only:  47% Approve (-1), 52% Disapprove (+/-0)
Non-Rasmussen Only:  46% Approve (+1), 49% Disapprove (+/-0)

I may put up a state chart for all state polls soon.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5529 on: July 31, 2010, 10:08:11 AM »

No chart, just list (don't feel like it)

Alabama: 41% Approve, 58% Disapprove
Alaska: 40% Approve, 58% Disapprove
Arizona: 44% Approve, 55% Disapprove
Arkansas: 34% Approve, 65% Disapprove
California: 54% Approve, 41% Disapprove
Colorado: 44% Approve, 54% Disapprove
Connecticut: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove
Delaware: 49% Approve, 48% Disapprove
Florida: 46% Approve, 50% Disapprove
Georgia: 40% Approve, 55% Disapprove
Hawaii: 72% Approve, 26% Disapprove
Idaho: 32% Approve, 68% Disapprove
Illinois: 54% Approve, 42% Disapprove
Indiana: 39% Approve, 57% Disapprove
Iowa: 47% Approve, 50% Disapprove
Kansas: 33% Approve, 65% Disapprove
Kentucky: 40% Approve, 57% Disapprove
Louisiana: 39% Approve, 58% Disapprove
Maine: 50% Approve, 49% Disapprove
Maryland: 55% Approve, 40% Disapprove
Massachusetts: 54% Approve, 46% Disapprove
Michigan: 48% Approve, 51% Disapprove
Minnesota: 50% Approve, 50% Disapprove
Mississippi: 37% Approve, 60% Disapprove
Missouri: 40% Approve, 55% Disapprove
Montana: 42% Approve, 57% Disapprove
Nebraska: 34% Approve, 66% Disapprove
Nevada: 42% Approve, 54% Disapprove
New Hampshire: 46% Approve, 52% Disapprove
New Jersey: 51% Approve, 46% Disapprove
New Mexico: 49% Approve, 48% Disapprove
New York: 53% Approve, 44% Disapprove
North Carolina: 45% Approve, 52% Disapprove
North Dakota: 40% Approve, 59% Disapprove
Ohio: 44% Approve, 53% Disapprove
Oklahoma: 36% Approve, 64% Disapprove
Oregon: 47% Approve, 51% Disapprove
Pennsylvania: 45% Approve, 51% Disapprove
Rhode Island: 50% Approve, 50% Disapprove
South Carolina: 44% Approve, 49% Disapprove
South Dakota: 40% Approve, 59% Disapprove
Tennessee: 42% Approve, 54% Disapprove
Texas: 37% Approve, 58% Disapprove
Utah: 33% Approve, 63% Disapprove
Vermont: 62% Approve, 37% Disapprove
Virginia: 49% Approve, 50% Disapprove
Washington: 51% Approve, 47% Disapprove
West Virginia: 32% Approve, 67% Disapprove
Wisconsin: 48% Approve, 49% Disapprove
Wyoming: 30% Approve, 70% Disapprove
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Beet
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« Reply #5530 on: July 31, 2010, 11:05:40 AM »

Briefly glancing over these...

Unexpectedly High:
Kentucky (40%)
Alaska (40%)
North Dakota (40%)
South Dakota (40%)

Unexpectedly Low:
New York (53%)
Rhode Island (50%)

Hawai'i is just absurd.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5531 on: July 31, 2010, 01:13:23 PM »

Briefly glancing over these...

Unexpectedly High:
Kentucky (40%)
Alaska (40%)
North Dakota (40%)
South Dakota (40%)

Unexpectedly Low:
New York (53%)
Rhode Island (50%)

Hawai'i is just absurd.


It could reflect a reduction in interstate polarization in voting from 2008.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #5532 on: July 31, 2010, 01:18:47 PM »

Briefly glancing over these...

Unexpectedly High:
Kentucky (40%)
Alaska (40%)
North Dakota (40%)
South Dakota (40%)

Unexpectedly Low:
New York (53%)
Rhode Island (50%)

Hawai'i is just absurd.


It could reflect a reduction in interstate polarization in voting from 2008.

That could be true.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5533 on: August 01, 2010, 08:41:25 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, u.

Disapprove 55%, -1 .


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, -1.



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memphis
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« Reply #5534 on: August 01, 2010, 09:43:18 AM »

Hawai'i is just absurd a bunch of Asians rooting for the home team.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5535 on: August 01, 2010, 09:55:41 AM »

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Beet
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« Reply #5536 on: August 01, 2010, 10:15:48 AM »

Hawai'i is just absurd a bunch of Asians rooting for the home team.

Obama's not Asian.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5537 on: August 01, 2010, 10:55:22 AM »

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I'd agree with that, especially considering the way Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia are acting.

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Democrats always overpoll in Alaska, so I would read too much into this number.

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The reversion to 2004 from 2008 effect is in application here, probably.  Much like Indiana, for example.

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If Obama's approval rating is really where it is right now, the deterioration should be strongest in white middle/upper-middle class suburbs outside the usual Southern areas (not DC suburbs or Miami, but otherwise).  As a subset of the group, I'd expect that, given Obama, the deterioration should be especially strong in areas where race is usually an issue and a problem.

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Rhode Island polling sucks.  Furthermore, it tends to overpoll Republicans.  Sure, Obama's lost ground, but not this much - there's no reason why.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5538 on: August 01, 2010, 12:16:21 PM »

WI, NY, IL, OK, PA, WA, FL, NV,


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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change08
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« Reply #5539 on: August 01, 2010, 01:16:28 PM »


Lol, Oklahoma.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #5540 on: August 01, 2010, 01:44:54 PM »


Oh, Oklahoma.  lol indeed. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5541 on: August 01, 2010, 02:00:55 PM »


Right. The state has elected two Senators whose ideologies verge on fascism.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5542 on: August 01, 2010, 02:33:50 PM »


Right. The state has elected two Senators whose ideologies verge on fascism.
Care to explain how Coburn is on the verge of fascism? I'm do not particularly care for his views much but a fascist he is not.
to quote...well, you.

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I think this answer is obvious.

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He is usualy one of the senators fighting against that.

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I have a strange feeling someone is going to spin it as "He gets re-elected, that means he is supressing opposition!"

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He is pretty transparent about what he does.

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LOL if you think so.

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eh, he does seem to be in the "MURICA, F%$K YEAH!" crowed, but not hitler kind of nationalist.

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I would like you to please cite evidence of this if he is, if you can't find anything other than "He is from Oklahoma" then I suggest you please  refrain from calling him fascist.

Like I said earlier, not a big Coburn fan, that being said, he is one of the better more principled senators.
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Zarn
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« Reply #5543 on: August 01, 2010, 02:34:43 PM »

WI, NY, IL, OK, PA, WA, FL, NV,


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

lol Vermont
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memphis
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« Reply #5544 on: August 01, 2010, 06:47:28 PM »


He was born in Hawaii and is the current President. I don't think Obama's race really plays into it, but Asians have more "loyalty" in their culture than is common in whitebread America.
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CJK
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« Reply #5545 on: August 02, 2010, 08:43:31 AM »

Obama Approval Rating July 2010 (Gallup):

46% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 40/43 (July 1978)

Reagan: 42/47 (July 1982)

Bush I: 62/25 (July 1990)

Clinton: 43/49 (July 1994)

Bush II: 72/22 (July 2002)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5546 on: August 02, 2010, 08:51:32 AM »
« Edited: August 02, 2010, 11:36:09 AM by pbrower2a »

South Carolina State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 29, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President…do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

    28% Strongly approve

    12% Somewhat approve

    10% Somewhat disapprove

    48% Strongly disapprove

      3% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  54
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  110
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  64
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  56
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 116
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......




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J. J.
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« Reply #5547 on: August 02, 2010, 08:58:23 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, +1.

Disapprove 54%, -1 .


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%,+1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.




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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5548 on: August 02, 2010, 04:32:09 PM »

Obama Approval Rating July 2010 (Gallup):

46% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 40/43 (July 1978)

Reagan: 42/47 (July 1982)

Bush I: 62/25 (July 1990)

Clinton: 43/49 (July 1994)

Bush II: 72/22 (July 2002)


All in perspective, it's not all that bad.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #5549 on: August 02, 2010, 06:47:50 PM »

Yeah, he's doing better than Carter, Reagan and Clinton were.
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