The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5500 on: July 28, 2010, 03:11:30 PM »

OR, CA, NV, & MT


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5501 on: July 28, 2010, 03:12:27 PM »
« Edited: July 28, 2010, 04:09:37 PM by pbrower2a »


Favorable/Unfavorable. I think that we had a protracted dispute on what polls are to be accepted and which aren't. EGFP and favorable/unfavorable polls lost. Acceptance of such a poll introduces inconsistency.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5502 on: July 29, 2010, 12:08:46 AM »


Favorable/Unfavorable. I think that we had a protracted dispute on what polls are to be accepted and which aren't. EGFP and favorable/unfavorable polls lost. Acceptance of such a poll introduces inconsistency.

No, the poll clearly says "approve" and "disapprove" (page 6).

The favorable numbers are

33% Favorable
55% Unfavorable
12% Neutral
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5503 on: July 29, 2010, 08:51:25 AM »

Missouri State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted July 27, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    31% Strongly approve
    13% Somewhat approve
       7% Somewhat disapprove
    49% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  74
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  110
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  47
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 116
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


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J. J.
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« Reply #5504 on: July 29, 2010, 09:47:25 AM »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 54%, +1 .


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5505 on: July 29, 2010, 12:55:11 PM »

New York (Quinnipiac): 53-41

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1482

Illinois (Rasmussen): 55-43

LINK
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5506 on: July 29, 2010, 12:57:18 PM »

Wisconsin (Rasmussen): 51-48

LINK
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change08
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« Reply #5507 on: July 29, 2010, 01:03:48 PM »


2nd state to turn green this week (the other being NH).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5508 on: July 29, 2010, 01:20:50 PM »

FOX News: 43-50

Congressional Ballot: 47R-36D

Sample: 41R, 37D, 16I

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/072910_ObamaElections.pdf

Interesting:

Obama loses among Independents in this poll by 36-56, but he was leading in the Ipsos poll by double-digits.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5509 on: July 29, 2010, 02:52:46 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2010, 07:18:45 PM by pbrower2a »

Wisconsin State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted July 27, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

28% Strongly approve
23% Somewhat approve
  7% Somewhat disapprove
41% Strongly disapprove
  2% Not sure

Oklahoma State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 28, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       20% Strongly approve
       16% Somewhat approve
       10% Somewhat disapprove
       55% Strongly disapprove
        0% Not sure

Better than I could have ever expected.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  54
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  110
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  47
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 116
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #5510 on: July 29, 2010, 04:47:05 PM »

FOX News: 43-50

Congressional Ballot: 47R-36D

Sample: 41R, 37D, 16I

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/072910_ObamaElections.pdf

Interesting:

Obama loses among Independents in this poll by 36-56, but he was leading in the Ipsos poll by double-digits.

Has there ever been an election US history when self-described R's outnumbered D's. I thought was the worst, and that was parity.
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izixs
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« Reply #5511 on: July 29, 2010, 05:03:42 PM »

The thing that's worried me the most about polling this round is how disparate some of the partisan break downs have been between pollsters. Do I trust the ones with the more standard break down or is there really this huge wave of republicans? I have a feeling that its a little of both. Many indies do lean towards one party or another but in most elections hate identifying with their party of choice. Maybe this year the Rep leaning indies have opted to drop the independent facade and tell their true feelings finally?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5512 on: July 29, 2010, 05:47:19 PM »

FOX News: 43-50

Congressional Ballot: 47R-36D

Sample: 41R, 37D, 16I

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/072910_ObamaElections.pdf

Interesting:

Obama loses among Independents in this poll by 36-56, but he was leading in the Ipsos poll by double-digits.

Trash.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5513 on: July 29, 2010, 09:31:47 PM »

FOX News: 43-50

Congressional Ballot: 47R-36D

Sample: 41R, 37D, 16I

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/072910_ObamaElections.pdf

Interesting:

Obama loses among Independents in this poll by 36-56, but he was leading in the Ipsos poll by double-digits.

FoX Propaganda Channel must be assuming a huge D-to-R shift of voters even when the GOP isn't gaining much respect.

Garbage in, garbage out.
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East Coast Republican
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« Reply #5514 on: July 29, 2010, 09:46:39 PM »

FOX News: 43-50

Congressional Ballot: 47R-36D

Sample: 41R, 37D, 16I

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/072910_ObamaElections.pdf

Interesting:

Obama loses among Independents in this poll by 36-56, but he was leading in the Ipsos poll by double-digits.

FoX Propaganda Channel must be assuming a huge D-to-R shift of voters even when the GOP isn't gaining much respect.

Garbage in, garbage out.

If that is garbage, then your entire 'model' and 'age wave' is less than the trash sitting at a city dump.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #5515 on: July 29, 2010, 11:12:31 PM »

FOX News: 43-50

Congressional Ballot: 47R-36D

Sample: 41R, 37D, 16I

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/072910_ObamaElections.pdf

Interesting:

Obama loses among Independents in this poll by 36-56, but he was leading in the Ipsos poll by double-digits.

FoX Propaganda Channel must be assuming a huge D-to-R shift of voters even when the GOP isn't gaining much respect.

Garbage in, garbage out.

If that is garbage, then your entire 'model' and 'age wave' is less than the trash sitting at a city dump.

I know i've said this before, but....stop trolling.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #5516 on: July 29, 2010, 11:25:10 PM »

FOX News: 43-50

Congressional Ballot: 47R-36D

Sample: 41R, 37D, 16I

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/072910_ObamaElections.pdf

Interesting:

Obama loses among Independents in this poll by 36-56, but he was leading in the Ipsos poll by double-digits.

FoX Propaganda Channel must be assuming a huge D-to-R shift of voters even when the GOP isn't gaining much respect.

Garbage in, garbage out.

I know Fox News has Obama's approval rating as one of the lowest as of today. But over all, it's tended on the higher (well at the very least medium) end of the spectrum.

Once again people are using numbers only when it suits them. Fox News, while the organization itself is clearly bias, has had pretty fair polls of Obama for the past 2 years.

I didn't hear anyone complaining about Fox New polls when it had Obama's approval ratings and similar polls of his administration higher than most. But since they show him in trouble? Oh, it must be bias and wrong! Sigh.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5517 on: July 30, 2010, 12:10:59 AM »

FOX News: 43-50

Congressional Ballot: 47R-36D

Sample: 41R, 37D, 16I

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/072910_ObamaElections.pdf

Interesting:

Obama loses among Independents in this poll by 36-56, but he was leading in the Ipsos poll by double-digits.

FoX Propaganda Channel must be assuming a huge D-to-R shift of voters even when the GOP isn't gaining much respect.

Garbage in, garbage out.

I know Fox News has Obama's approval rating as one of the lowest as of today. But over all, it's tended on the higher (well at the very least medium) end of the spectrum.

Once again people are using numbers only when it suits them. Fox News, while the organization itself is clearly bias, has had pretty fair polls of Obama for the past 2 years.

I didn't hear anyone complaining about Fox New polls when it had Obama's approval ratings and similar polls of his administration higher than most. But since they show him in trouble? Oh, it must be bias and wrong! Sigh.

FoX used to have objective polls and could have them again. This one is a turkey.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #5518 on: July 30, 2010, 12:35:12 AM »

FOX News: 43-50

Congressional Ballot: 47R-36D

Sample: 41R, 37D, 16I

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/072910_ObamaElections.pdf

Interesting:

Obama loses among Independents in this poll by 36-56, but he was leading in the Ipsos poll by double-digits.

FoX Propaganda Channel must be assuming a huge D-to-R shift of voters even when the GOP isn't gaining much respect.

Garbage in, garbage out.

I know Fox News has Obama's approval rating as one of the lowest as of today. But over all, it's tended on the higher (well at the very least medium) end of the spectrum.

Once again people are using numbers only when it suits them. Fox News, while the organization itself is clearly bias, has had pretty fair polls of Obama for the past 2 years.

I didn't hear anyone complaining about Fox New polls when it had Obama's approval ratings and similar polls of his administration higher than most. But since they show him in trouble? Oh, it must be bias and wrong! Sigh.

FoX used to have objective polls and could have them again. This one is a turkey.

So what happened in the last month or two that made Fox News Polls unbelievable? Did they only just switch from being fair and balanced to being right wing oriented? Once again, sigh.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5519 on: July 30, 2010, 07:37:09 AM »
« Edited: July 30, 2010, 08:23:51 AM by pbrower2a »

Pennsylvania Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted July 28, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

  

    26% Strongly approve

    20% Somewhat approve

      9% Somewhat disapprove

    45% Strongly disapprove

      0% Not sure

Washington State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted July 28, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       31% Strongly approve
       19% Somewhat approve
         9% Somewhat disapprove
       40% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  54
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  110
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  73
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  47
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 116
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5520 on: July 30, 2010, 08:19:05 AM »

Has there ever been an election US history when self-described R's outnumbered D's. I thought was the worst, and that was parity.

2002. Republicans made up 39% of voters according to the VNS; Democrats made up 38%.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #5521 on: July 30, 2010, 11:40:55 AM »

I been working on some new maps. These map are of Rasmussen polls number because they are the only polls they do strong/somewhat polls. What I did is I took the all of the strong numbers plus half of the somewhat numbers and added them together. That would be the first map you see. The 2nd map, is a map of giving Obama 60% of the undecided numbers.

For Example:

State Josh: Obama approval rating:

Strong Approve: 24%
Somewhat Approve: 10%
Somewhat Disapprove: 20%
Strong Disapprove: 46%

46+10=56%, 24+5=29%; basic number(first map) 56% - 29% - 15% Rep State

For 2nd map: 60% of 15= 9; 29+9=38% / 40% of 15=6; 56+6=62%

So if the election was held today the state of Josh would vote 62-38 for the Republican Candidate.



Map one:



Key:

30% shade: 0-5% lead
40% shade: 6-12% lead
50% shade: 13-20% lead
80% shade: 21 and up lead





(Grey = Tie)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5522 on: July 30, 2010, 12:51:14 PM »

FL (Quinnipiac): 46-50

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1483
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ConservativeIllini
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« Reply #5523 on: July 30, 2010, 04:11:30 PM »

Nevada (Las-Vegas Review Journal)

39-55

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/July_30_2010_1.html
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5524 on: July 30, 2010, 04:32:03 PM »

It's a consensus now that Obama has a negative approval rating.  This is certainly bad news for the Democrats.
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