The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5425 on: July 24, 2010, 12:32:47 AM »

MO (Mason-Dixon): 34-57

http://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/stltoday.com/content/tncms/assets/editorial/2/ca/abd/2caabd34-96dd-11df-8cd1-00127992bc8b-revisions/4c4a6e0f24ba3.pdf.pdf
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5426 on: July 24, 2010, 12:53:06 AM »

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

Well they must be the stereotypical Californians who skate board and do drugs because according to you they're remembering things that aren't real. It might just take a worthless president like Obama to lose CA and WA in 2012.

Dude, seriously, this isn't even a generalization of Californians.  You just described the stereotype for the white male teenager in America.

Back on topic, yeah, the Bay Area liberals have been demoralized.  Berkeley (Telegraph Ave. particularly) has been pretty quiet as of late, with only a few stands and whatnot. 

Though, I have to admit, the place does have a cleaner feel when there's less activists on the streets.
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Overturn Dobbs
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« Reply #5427 on: July 24, 2010, 02:20:44 AM »

I feel so out of sync. When he was running as a candidate / first came into office I supported him for partisan reasons but thought he was an empty suit with a lot of rhetoric who didn't know how to get anything done. This is when most liberals were slobbering all over him.

Now that Obama's signed Lily Ledbetter, the SCHIP expansion, the stimulus package, credit card reform, health care reform (huge), student loan reform, and financial reform, and stabilized the economy, all of which I approve of more than disapprove, my opinion of him has shot up. He's been incredibly effective. But now most liberals are upset he didn't usher in some sort of liberal paradise.

It's pretty lonely being a pragmatic liberal. Most of them liked him when he was a pie in the sky dream, and dislike him now that he's actually accomplished something solid. Perhaps this is just some sort of derangement liberals suffer that causes them to be perpetually unrealistic? I have to say, I would not be a liberal except that conservatives these days are far worse. There's hope for the unrealistic. For the insane there's only treatment.
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xavier110
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« Reply #5428 on: July 24, 2010, 02:24:08 AM »

I feel so out of sync. When he was running as a candidate / first came into office I supported him for partisan reasons but thought he was an empty suit with a lot of rhetoric who didn't know how to get anything done. This is when most liberals were slobbering all over him.

Now that Obama's signed Lily Ledbetter, the SCHIP expansion, the stimulus package, credit card reform, health care reform (huge), student loan reform, and financial reform, and stabilized the economy, all of which I approve of more than disapprove, my opinion of him has shot up. He's been incredibly effective. But now most liberals are upset he didn't usher in some sort of liberal paradise.

It's pretty lonely being a pragmatic liberal. Most of them liked him when he was a pie in the sky dream, and dislike him now that he's actually accomplished something solid. Perhaps this is just some sort of derangement liberals suffer that causes them to be perpetually unrealistic? I have to say, I would not be a liberal except that conservatives these days are far worse. There's hope for the unrealistic. For the insane there's only treatment.

Liberals still overwhelming approve, even if some may be disappointed.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5429 on: July 24, 2010, 08:42:49 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 56% u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

Sill within range, though there is some slumping of Obama's numbers.  If this is a bad sample (it probably is) it should drop off tomorrow.

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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5430 on: July 24, 2010, 11:47:26 AM »
« Edited: July 24, 2010, 11:50:32 AM by SE Gov. JBrase »

CA, WA, OR, KS, MO


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Derek
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« Reply #5431 on: July 24, 2010, 11:57:18 AM »

I feel so out of sync. When he was running as a candidate / first came into office I supported him for partisan reasons but thought he was an empty suit with a lot of rhetoric who didn't know how to get anything done. This is when most liberals were slobbering all over him.

Now that Obama's signed Lily Ledbetter, the SCHIP expansion, the stimulus package, credit card reform, health care reform (huge), student loan reform, and financial reform, and stabilized the economy, all of which I approve of more than disapprove, my opinion of him has shot up. He's been incredibly effective. But now most liberals are upset he didn't usher in some sort of liberal paradise.

It's pretty lonely being a pragmatic liberal. Most of them liked him when he was a pie in the sky dream, and dislike him now that he's actually accomplished something solid. Perhaps this is just some sort of derangement liberals suffer that causes them to be perpetually unrealistic? I have to say, I would not be a liberal except that conservatives these days are far worse. There's hope for the unrealistic. For the insane there's only treatment.

I wish I could frame this quote. He is an empty suit and will never amount to anything more. You should've voted for McCain but there is still 2012.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5432 on: July 24, 2010, 12:10:41 PM »

I feel so out of sync. When he was running as a candidate / first came into office I supported him for partisan reasons but thought he was an empty suit with a lot of rhetoric who didn't know how to get anything done. This is when most liberals were slobbering all over him.

Now that Obama's signed Lily Ledbetter, the SCHIP expansion, the stimulus package, credit card reform, health care reform (huge), student loan reform, and financial reform, and stabilized the economy, all of which I approve of more than disapprove, my opinion of him has shot up. He's been incredibly effective. But now most liberals are upset he didn't usher in some sort of liberal paradise.

It's pretty lonely being a pragmatic liberal. Most of them liked him when he was a pie in the sky dream, and dislike him now that he's actually accomplished something solid. Perhaps this is just some sort of derangement liberals suffer that causes them to be perpetually unrealistic? I have to say, I would not be a liberal except that conservatives these days are far worse. There's hope for the unrealistic. For the insane there's only treatment.

I wish I could frame this quote. He is an empty suit and will never amount to anything more. You should've voted for McCain but there is still 2012.

John McCain would have achieved none of that. McCain showed himself the empty suit in 2008 -- tragically he was not an empty suit in 2000, but he lost out in the Republican primaries to the definitive example of an empty suit.

You need not like the accomplishments of President Obama. So far he has been weak at tooting his own horn about his accomplishments. So what? Would you prefer that he were an arrogant braggart who does one ting and then rests on his laurels? That FoX and Clear Channel carp about him incessantly shows that they have agendas -- failure of the President, which includes inculcating the idea that he is a failure even if he isn't.

You are right -- there is 2012. There will be a Presidential campaign, and President Obama can let others show his accomplishments and the need for more --- accomplishments that Republican reactionaries have obstructed.
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The Trump Virus
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« Reply #5433 on: July 24, 2010, 02:06:12 PM »

So if I'm looking correctly at the map posted above by JBrase, the president holds a 50% or above approval rating in only 11 states out of 49 polled, and not including D.C.  Regardless of what the future holds for November '12, supporters of Obama have to be troubled by this....

Just speaking as an independent (yes, I voted for McCain in the general, but Hillary was my first choice), I don't see how anyone can honestly think the president is doing a good job, or even a mediocre one.  It's getting down now where a huge remainder of his supporters are doing so based solely on party ID as the majority of voters have been against nearly everything he's tried to accomplish.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5434 on: July 24, 2010, 02:39:37 PM »

North Dakota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted July 21, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       23% Strongly approve
       17% Somewhat approve
       13% Somewhat disapprove
       46% Strongly disapprove
         1% Not sure






Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

49 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.  The exception is Montana among the states. DC has yet to be polled.





deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  154
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  49
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 133
white                        too close to call  6
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  71
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  54
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 96
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......
[/quote]
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GLPman
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« Reply #5435 on: July 24, 2010, 03:04:03 PM »

I can't wait to see the different shades of green and yellow that pbrower develops for his maps in the upcoming months.
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Zarn
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« Reply #5436 on: July 24, 2010, 03:04:38 PM »

40% will be the new green. Wink
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5437 on: July 24, 2010, 03:24:52 PM »

So if I'm looking correctly at the map posted above by JBrase, the president holds a 50% or above approval rating in only 11 states out of 49 polled, and not including D.C.  Regardless of what the future holds for November '12, supporters of Obama have to be troubled by this....

Just speaking as an independent (yes, I voted for McCain in the general, but Hillary was my first choice), I don't see how anyone can honestly think the president is doing a good job, or even a mediocre one.  It's getting down now where a huge remainder of his supporters are doing so based solely on party ID as the majority of voters have been against nearly everything he's tried to accomplish.

Approval ratings for an incumbent before the campaign has started in earnest do not translate literally into votes in the election. Such usually indicates how an incumbent would do if he did no campaigning whatsoever. An incumbent running for re-election as a Senator or Governor who begins with a 44% approval rating has about a 50% chance of winning re-election. Those are statewide elections, and each Presidential election is 50 state elections, one election in DC, and five elections in Congressional districts.

Sure, an incumbent with 55% approval (let us say Eisenhower in 1956) might choose to place himself above any campaigning and win 55% of the popular vote. I do not see Obama in that situation.  

The formidable campaign apparatus that Barack Obama had in 2008 is in mothballs. By the summer of 2012 it will be out of mothballs. His campaign will do something that it did in 2012 that it did in 2008: seize any opportunity to win a state and abandon any futile effort and back away from any sure thing. It will accentuate the positive when such is necessary, and it will find ways in which to do negative campaigning without seeming negative.

Nobody can deny that he will run on his record and win or run from it and lose.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5438 on: July 24, 2010, 03:31:09 PM »


I added a yellow shade for 44% because my system predicts a 50% chance of an incumbent winning election with that level of support before his campaign begins. I also added a really-deep orange (really brown) for disapproval over 70% (which appears only  in Wyoming and would show in NE-03 in view of the differences between the state's districts).

Polls are snapshots from inside a dirty window of a moving car.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5439 on: July 24, 2010, 03:58:47 PM »

ND


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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Bo
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« Reply #5440 on: July 24, 2010, 04:03:15 PM »

WOW WA is about as left wing as CA.

I'm not entirely sure on this poll, but realize WA is a different type of left than CA.  They tend to be more socially Liberal rather than fiscally Liberal outside of Seattle proper, so it could be that Obama's fiscal liberalism is hurting him among some of the Seattle Suburbanites.

This is contrasted to say, where I live, where the political center is roughly between "kill the Rich" and "just imprison the rich".

It also might be that he's losing center-left White voters, as California is much browner than Washington and voters here might just be supporting him on racial rather than direct political lines.

Although "outlier poll" is still the most likely explanation

Well, I've always viewed the left coast as the Hollywood, hippie wing of the democrat party. They are both in play for 2012 at this point though lol.

Obama won't lose CA or WA in 2012.

What ABOUT THE CURRENT TRENDS makes you say that?

I live in California. In Orange County, a swing area. Obama and the Democrats are still pretty popular here, and many people here still remember how the GOP screwed over our country and economy under Bush Jr. It would take a second Great Depression for the Republicans to win California and Washington in 2012.

Well they must be the stereotypical Californians who skate board and do drugs because according to you they're remembering things that aren't real. It might just take a worthless president like Obama to lose CA and WA in 2012.

None of my friends do drugs (or if they do, I don't know about it). What does skateboarding have to do with any of this? And the Great Recession did start under Bush Jr. That's a fact. And if John Kerry managed to win both CA and WA by 7+% in 2004 while losing nationwide by 3%, then I don't see Obama losing these two states unless a second Great Depression occurs.
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Dgov
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« Reply #5441 on: July 24, 2010, 05:24:27 PM »

Do you live in the bay area? There are certainly a lot of demoralized left wingers here.

Yeah, West Bay, just outside San Fran.
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change08
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« Reply #5442 on: July 24, 2010, 07:48:34 PM »

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-USArelations-210710.pdf

President Obama has a 64/21 approval rating in the UK. Wink I love my country.

Bush's last recorded UK approval was June 2006 at 16/77.
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« Reply #5443 on: July 24, 2010, 07:56:10 PM »

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-USArelations-210710.pdf

President Obama has a 64/21 approval rating in the UK. Wink I love my country.

Bush's last recorded UK approval was June 2006 at 16/77.


Ha ha   I love Bush's numbers.  XD
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #5444 on: July 24, 2010, 07:58:09 PM »

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-USArelations-210710.pdf

President Obama has a 64/21 approval rating in the UK. Wink I love my country.

Bush's last recorded UK approval was June 2006 at 16/77.

Wow, the UK is even stupider than the US. That's some feat. Shocked
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« Reply #5445 on: July 24, 2010, 10:13:46 PM »

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-USArelations-210710.pdf

President Obama has a 64/21 approval rating in the UK. Wink I love my country.

Bush's last recorded UK approval was June 2006 at 16/77.

You don't think that has anything to do with the media? The UK are still in love with Obama because they are still riding on his campaign rhetoric, and not be effected by his awful policies.

As for Bush, it was 'cool' to hate Bush post-2006 especially, and I wouldn't be surprised that many people lied just to fit in.

I don't trust those UK numbers at all for either president - they surely don't indicate to me that Obama's policies are good and successful, while Bush's beyond horrible.
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timmer123
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« Reply #5446 on: July 25, 2010, 01:02:30 AM »

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/YG-Archives-Pol-USArelations-210710.pdf

President Obama has a 64/21 approval rating in the UK. Wink I love my country.

Bush's last recorded UK approval was June 2006 at 16/77.

Wow, file that under "I couldn't care less."
I would expect socialist to like a socialist.

If you love him so much, please take him.  He's damaged our country enough already
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Sbane
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« Reply #5447 on: July 25, 2010, 04:24:50 AM »

So if I'm looking correctly at the map posted above by JBrase, the president holds a 50% or above approval rating in only 11 states out of 49 polled, and not including D.C.  Regardless of what the future holds for November '12, supporters of Obama have to be troubled by this....

Just speaking as an independent (yes, I voted for McCain in the general, but Hillary was my first choice), I don't see how anyone can honestly think the president is doing a good job, or even a mediocre one.  It's getting down now where a huge remainder of his supporters are doing so based solely on party ID as the majority of voters have been against nearly everything he's tried to accomplish.

He's actually gotten a lot done, even if it is half assed (blame congress, not Obama). He is certainly not a good president because he doesn't lead well. But at the same time he hasn't made any big blunders. If things remain the way they are, he will end up somewhere in the middle of Presidents in terms of job performance.

Now if you think that he shouldn't have done health care reform or financial reform, then that's a different thing. If you wanted these things done, you can't deny that he did it.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #5448 on: July 25, 2010, 04:55:03 AM »

So if I'm looking correctly at the map posted above by JBrase, the president holds a 50% or above approval rating in only 11 states out of 49 polled, and not including D.C.  Regardless of what the future holds for November '12, supporters of Obama have to be troubled by this....

Just speaking as an independent (yes, I voted for McCain in the general, but Hillary was my first choice), I don't see how anyone can honestly think the president is doing a good job, or even a mediocre one.  It's getting down now where a huge remainder of his supporters are doing so based solely on party ID as the majority of voters have been against nearly everything he's tried to accomplish.

He's actually gotten a lot done, even if it is half assed (blame congress, not Obama). He is certainly not a good president because he doesn't lead well. But at the same time he hasn't made any big blunders. If things remain the way they are, he will end up somewhere in the middle of Presidents in terms of job performance.

Now if you think that he shouldn't have done health care reform or financial reform, then that's a different thing. If you wanted these things done, you can't deny that he did it.

Obama has indeed gotten a lot of his fascist agenda pushed through.

Whether you consider that a good thing or not depends on whether you approve of fascism or not.
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Sbane
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« Reply #5449 on: July 25, 2010, 05:03:55 AM »

So if I'm looking correctly at the map posted above by JBrase, the president holds a 50% or above approval rating in only 11 states out of 49 polled, and not including D.C.  Regardless of what the future holds for November '12, supporters of Obama have to be troubled by this....

Just speaking as an independent (yes, I voted for McCain in the general, but Hillary was my first choice), I don't see how anyone can honestly think the president is doing a good job, or even a mediocre one.  It's getting down now where a huge remainder of his supporters are doing so based solely on party ID as the majority of voters have been against nearly everything he's tried to accomplish.

He's actually gotten a lot done, even if it is half assed (blame congress, not Obama). He is certainly not a good president because he doesn't lead well. But at the same time he hasn't made any big blunders. If things remain the way they are, he will end up somewhere in the middle of Presidents in terms of job performance.

Now if you think that he shouldn't have done health care reform or financial reform, then that's a different thing. If you wanted these things done, you can't deny that he did it.

Obama has indeed gotten a lot of his fascist agenda pushed through.

Whether you consider that a good thing or not depends on whether you approve of fascism or not.

I kinda approve of the health care bill. That means I kinda support fascism, right Libertas?
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